Tell It To Al

Debate: CONGRESS SHOULD PASS OBAMA’S JOBS PLAN – PIECE BY PIECE from Intelligence Squared U.S. on Vimeo.

President Obama’s Jobs Plan was dead on arrival weeks ago, so why is anybody still debating it?

The topic was “Congress Should Pass Obama’s Jobs Plan — Piece By Piece.” at the Intelligence Squared U.S. Debate Series at the New York University’s Skirball Center on Tuesday night. It was a slow night, so I went, and it seemed that the only conclusion I could come to was if we don’t pass a new stimulus plan we may be headed back into a recession, and if we do pass one we still may be headed back.

Click here to read my column on MarketWatch.

On this date last year, I wrote that gold would surpass $1,350 an ounce, that bank failures would continue rising, and that unemployment would remain stuck above 9%.

I also wrote that continued joblessness ensured: “Democrats will lose big in the November election. Too bad the Republicans … don’t have the solution, either.”

That was easy. So was predicting weak economic growth. (Click here to see my Jan. 2, 2010 post.)

Oh, by the way, I do most of my forecasting using a Magic 8 Ball  by Mattel. It’s at least as accurate as any Harvard-trained economist.

Less accurately, I predicted oil would top $100 a barrel. It’s getting close, at more than $91, but not quite.

I also predicted 2010 would be the peak year for mortgage foreclosures. But it now looks like the peak will hit in 2011.

I also fudged on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, saying it was so volatile it could both retest its 2009 low of 6,500, which it didn’t, and surpass 11,000, which it did. Hooray!

So what’s up for 2011?

Click here to see what my 8 ball had to say about that.

All the cheery economic news of late was drowned out by one data point last week: Unemployment rising to 9.8%.

Economists expressed surprise, though I’m not sure why. The economy has not been generating anywhere near enough jobs to make up for what it lost in the Great Recession.

I talk about it with Eric Kahnert of Denver’s NBC affiliate 9News.

There’s no inflation. If you don’t believe that, just ask anyone living on Social Security.

They may be paying more for food, gasoline, utilities, and in some cases even rent but they’re not getting a cost of living adjustment in their social security checks in 2011. This is the second time this has happened since cost-of-living-adjustments began in 1975.

Apparently, consumer prices are still lower than they were two years ago. You remember. Before the bottom totally fell out of the housing market and gasoline prices spiked to $4. Economists constantly worry about deflation hitting the market, but if you eat, you sure don’t see much deflation these days.

Click here to read more from The Associated Press.

Well, that settles it. The recession is over.

The National Bureau of Economic Research – the official arbiter of when recessions begin and end – declared today that the December 2007 recession ended in June 2009. Click here to read NBER’s statement. Phew! And all this time I thought the recession was still going on. But it’s been over for a year.

Perhaps I was fooled by the continuing mortgage foreclosure crisis that kicked off the recession. Or maybe it was the nearly 10% unemployment and lack of job growth nearly everywhere you look. Or was it the fact that two to seven banks are taken over as failed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. nearly every Friday?

Was it the slowly disintigrating commercial real estate market? Or the stock market still stuck at about where it was in 1999?

Or was it the fact that it never made much sense that we’d escape a recession caused by too much borrowing and spending, by a lot more borrowing and spending?

In any case, I’m sure glad the recession is over. But I have a feeling I won’t have to wait long for the next one.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke put on quite a show today, telling us all the things about the economy that we already know.

Stating the obvious at an annual meeting of Southern lawmakers in Charleston, S.C. on Monday, Bernanke opined:

“We have a considerable way to go to achieve a full recovery in our economy, and many Americans are still grappling with unemployment, foreclosure and lost savings.”

Otherwise, there’s a bit of a recovery going on, Bernanke claimed. Just not a full one.

Bernanke didn’t see the crisis coming and he won’t see it going. I’d rather get my economic forecast from a guy who sells gyros on a corner in New York City. Meet Magdy Shahin of King Tut Halal Food. He’ll tell you how it is.

Click here to read my column on Shahin.

This seems to be the week when the slick veneer flew off the recovery, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average solidly below 10,000 and the unemployment picture growing increasingly bleak.

Americans polled by Harris were already in doubt, despite President Obama’s repeated pronouncements that the economy is getting stronger.

Most polled say they expect the economy to stay the same or get worse in the year to come. Nothing like losing your home or your job to put the damper on your view of the recovery.

Click here to read column on MarketWatch.

The economy has not really been in a recovery. It’s just been propped up by bailouts and tax credits.

The latest evidence of this viewpoint is new home sales. Tax credits end, new home sales virtually stop. Click here to read about the latest numbers. Sales of new homes collapsed 33% in May.

Yesterday we received news that sales of existing homes were starting to slip, too. Click here for more on that. This smaller dip came despite the fact that tax credits were still available for existing homes in May.

Meanwhile, the foreclosure crisis that started this mess is showing some signs of leveling off. RealtyTrak reports a 3% decline in foreclosures in May, but attributed some of that decline to banks working faster to deal with troubled properties. It also noted bank repossessions hit a record high in May. Click here for more on that.

When you get right down to it, not much growth is happening without government stimulus spending and crediting. The job market improvements are largely attributable to temporary census taking gigs. The improvements we see in banking, finance and even the stock market are largely due to nearly 0% interest rates.

Ask yourself this: How can the U.S. economy truly recover from a housing-induced recession unless housing recovers first?

Father’s Day can be a real downer for millions of unemployed dads.

“Many children would undoubtedly like to simply give an out-of-work dad a new job,” said job-search expert and father of five John Challenger. “Unfortunately, that’s simply not realistic.”

Challenger of outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas in Chicago said the number of jobless men over age 20 reached nearly 8.4 million in October 2009. And despite lauded improvements in the job market since then, the job market recovery has been slow.

“While men are seeing solid job gains, it will take several months, if not years, for male employment to return to pre-recession levels,” he says.

The nation’s unemployment rate was 9.7% in May, down from 9.9% in April, but still nauseatingly high. On Friday, the Labor Department reported declines in the unemployment rate in 37 states. Unfortunately, they came on the backs of people who have given up looking for work. Click here to read about that.

Challenger notes it’s been called the “man-cession” for the extreme toll it’s taken on male-dominated jobs, such as financial services, construction and manufacturing.

Meanwhile, dad may feel that time is running out, especially as U.S. Senate Republicans have blocked a bill to extend unemployment benefits once again. Click here to read about that.

So what can anyone do for the unemployed dad?

Challenger suggests perhaps converting business cards that dad amasses in his job search to digital files for his computer and phone.

Shining his shoes, pressing his shirts, and keeping him looking his best for interviews. Or how about a new pair of shoes to replace the rubber and leather he’s worn away on the job hunt?

“The best gift is probably much needed moral support,” Challenger said.

It’s sad but true, but a lot of dads define themselves by what they do. And when they’re unemployed they may feel they are doing nothing.

Doing nothing. Being nothing. That’s a heavy toll on a dad who tries to be everything to his family.

And add to that the constant barrage of rejection, and worse, having resumes and job applications ignored altogether.

The best thing may be just to reassure dad that he is going through an economic cycle that is largely out of his control. That his anguished search for a new job is noble, even heroic, at a time when they’re just aren’t enough jobs to go around.

That, in the end, he is not defined by his job or lack thereof. He is defined as dad.

Comedian Drew Carey has some suggestions for how to save Cleveland.

They aren’t all that funny.

Click here to read column.