I am still formulating my predictions for 2010. My Magic 8-Ball keeps telling me to ask again later. If you have any thoughts, please send them my way.
Meantime, many of my predictions for 2009 have come to pass. Or missed the mark by merely a tad.
For instance, last December, when the Dow was not far from 9,000, I predicted it would fall below 6,000. But it only fell to 6,547.05 in March.
I did not foresee the extent to which the Federal Reserve Bank and the Treasury would commit taxpayer dollars to prop up our failing banking system, and by extension, the stock market.
Anyway, you be the judge. Here’s word-for-word what I wrote in my column last December:
“For 2009, I predict that housing foreclosures will continue to rise, causing almost everything else to keep declining.
“Problem loan portfolios at our biggest banks will become bigger than the federal government’s ability to bail them out. Auto makers will not magically turn viable, and at least one of them will have to undergo either a forced consolidation or a bankruptcy.
“The recession will continue through most, if not all, of the year, and when it’s over we will still be in a global economic malaise.
“Unemployment will come close to double digits by year-end. The Dow will slip below 6000. Gold will easily eclipse the $1,000-an-ounce mark.
“Oil prices will remain well below $100 a barrel for long enough to silence most serious talk about alternative energy and electric cars.
“Watch for suckers’ rallies. Stocks will spike. Low-interest rates will even encourage home sales. But most optimism will prove short-lived.”
Now if only I had this much insight for 2010. Be back to you with my Magic 8-Ball later.