President Obama

Obama Hires Another Inexperienced Intellectual

Posted by Pat Sullivan on January 10, 2011
China, General Comments, Middle East, President Obama, U. S. Congress, Wall Street / 1 Comment

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

By appointing Bill Daley Chief of Staff, President Barack Obama hopes to present a centrist face to voters skeptical about his commitment to free enterprise.

Don’t be fooled. Deeper in the administration, the president’s electricians are busily rewiring U.S. capitalism for failure.

The recent crisis was caused by a huge international trade deficit, massive foreign borrowing and shoddy Wall Street practices.

From 2004 to 2008, Americans spent and consumed 5% more than they produced and earned, scarfing up electronic devices made in China, Middle East oil and houses whose mortgages they couldn’t afford. The Chinese and Middle East royals bought U.S. bonds and other securities with the dollars not spent on U.S. exports, and Wall Street banks recycled those to consumers through first and second mortgages.

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Jobs Drought Confronts President and Republicans

Posted by Pat Sullivan on January 05, 2011
China, General Comments, U.S. Economy, Unemployment / Comments Off

Friday, economists expect the Labor Department to report the economy added 140,000 jobs in December, barely enough to hold unemployment steady at about 9.8% and far less than should be expected 18 months into an economic recovery.

The president’s $800 billion stimulus package gave the economy a lift, and additional tax cuts in 2011 will help too, but those did not address structural problems holding back jobs creation, principal among those is the huge trade deficit.

Since July 2009, spending by consumers, businesses, and federal and state governments has increased at a 3.8% annual pace, but imports and the trade deficit have jumped 17% and 37%, respectively. Simply, too many stimulus dollars are being spent on goods from China, and too few of those dollars return to purchase U.S. exports.

The growing trade deficit is a tax on domestic demand that offsets much of the benefits of stimulus spending and tax cuts. Consequently, the U.S. economy is expanding at a 2.9% annual pace, which isn’t enough to dent unemployment.

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President Obama And The Mosque

Posted by Pat Sullivan on August 17, 2010
General Comments, President Obama / Comments Off

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

Sometimes religious leaders and presidents act on good principle but exercise poor judgment. The New York mosque controversy may provide a textbook example.

Plans to construct a mosque and community center in close proximity to Ground Zero may be well intended by Islamic leaders to educate Americans and other visitors about the positive role Muslim Americans play in U.S. life.

Well before the international conflicts of late 20th century, Muslims were a small but productive community in the U.S. Many worked in the auto industry in Michigan, where significant numbers settled, and our finest universities boast Muslims among their faculty.

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Keep All The Bush Tax Cuts

Posted by Pat Sullivan on August 02, 2010
Banking, China, General Comments, Great Recession, President Obama, Timothy Geithner, U.S. Treasury / Comments Off

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

The Bush tax cuts were a huge success, and failing to extend them for all Americans–not just families earning less than $250,000, as President Barack Obama proposes–would be a terrible mistake.

Contrary to current White House propaganda, President George W. Bush achieved a lot of growth prior to the financial crisis, and lower taxes for all helped. The Bush prosperity was the byproduct of several multidecade policy trends that freed markets and empowered individuals to innovate and create wealth.

Freer trade championed by presidents since John F. Kennedy, and deregulation (begun by Jimmy Carter with the airlines) were critical to this trend. Also key was reducing excessively high tax rates on upper-income Americans, initiated by Ronald Reagan, somewhat interrupted by Bill Clinton, and reinstated by Bush.

Economists recognize highly productive people, if taxed punitively, create less wealth in the U.S. through arcane tax planning or simply move investments offshore. Higher taxes for high-income families would raise rates on fully half of the income earned by proprietorships and leave those small and medium-sized business with less to invest in creating new jobs.

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TALK BACK: President Obama In Water Over His Head

Posted by Pat Sullivan on June 14, 2010
BP, Energy, General Comments, Oil, President Obama, U.S. Dept. of Energy, U.S. Economy / Comments Off

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

With oil still flowing nearly two months after the Deepwater Horizon explosion in the Gulf of Mexico, passions are running high, but reason, not rage, should guide the government response.

Sadly, President Barack Obama, by persistently scolding BP PLC (BP, BP.LN) and using inflammatory rhetoric, has done little to improve BP’s efforts to cap the well and mitigate the damage, or to foster effective cooperation between federal and state agencies that could improve those efforts.

The Coast Guard, Department of Interior and other federal agencies have limited resources to cap the well. Oil exploration and development is fundamentally a private sector activity, and only companies like BP and their contractors have the essential know-how and equipment to get that job done.

Suggesting Chief Executive Tony Hayward be fired or demanding the company create a multibillion damage dollar fund, without specifying in detail how it would work, only distracts BP from doing what it has already pledged to do–clean up the mess and leave whole those who have been harmed.

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TALK BACK: US April Trade Increases, Taxes Recovery And Employment

Posted by Pat Sullivan on June 10, 2010
China, GDP, General Comments, U.S. Dept. of Commerce / Comments Off

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

The U.S. Commerce Department reported the April deficit on international trade in goods and services increased to $40.3 billion from $40.0 billion in March.

The trade deficit, along with the credit and housing bubbles, were the principal causes of the Great Recession. Now, a rising trade deficit and continued weakness among regional banks, still burdened by bad loans, threatens to stifle the emerging recovery and keep unemployment near 10% through 2011.

At 3.3% of gross domestic product, the trade deficit subtracts more from the demand for U.S.-made goods and services than President Barack Obama’s stimulus package adds to demand. Moreover, Obama’s stimulus is temporary, whereas the trade deficit is permanent and growing again.

Subsidized manufactures from China and petroleum account for nearly the entire deficit, and both will rise as consumer spending and oil prices rise through 2010

Money spent on Chinese coffee makers and Middle East oil cannot be spent on U.S.-made goods and services, unless offset by exports.

When imports substantially exceed exports, Americans must consume much more than the incomes they earn producing goods and services, or the demand for what they make is inadequate to clear the shelves, inventories pile up, layoffs result, and the economy goes into recession.

To keep Chinese products artificially inexpensive on U.S. store shelves and discourage U.S. exports into the Middle Kingdom, China undervalues the yuan by 40%.

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TALK BACK: Time Is Running Out For President Obama

Posted by Pat Sullivan on June 07, 2010
General Comments / Comments Off

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

Either President Barak Obama fixes what’s broken in the economy, or he will be remembered for spending his entire first term blaming George Bush.

Last week’s jobs report was terrible for the 11th month of a recovery.

With nearly $800 billion in stimulus spending at its point of maximum impact, federal employment–net of temporary census jobs–was up a mere 1,000 in May.

Private sector employment was up an insignificant 41,000, only one-fourth the pace of the prior two months. Retailers are again cutting employment, as consumers turned pessimistic, flee the malls

Making worse a stock market panicked by European debt woes, the president claims his policies are working.

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TALK BACK: Strong US Jobs Report Expected

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

Economists expect a strong jobs report for May, but the unemployment rate is expected to ease only slightly.

Friday, the Labor Department will release May employment data, and forecasters expect something north of 500,000 new jobs; however, many are in the public sector reflecting stimulus spending. Manufacturing is expected to add a respectable 30,000 new positions.

Unemployment is expected to only fall to 9.8% from 9.9% in April, because many sidelined adults, sensing improved conditions, started looking for work.

The big challenge is to keep gross domestic product growing at least 3% to pull down unemployment.

Much recent growth has been inventory adjustments, and sustainable growth, reflected in real consumer and business investment demand, has been only about 2%. As stimulus spending tails off, new sources of demand will be needed.

If the economy keeps growing at 3% the balance of 2010, demand for new capacity–improved rental housing, better located new homes, and commercial construction for retail and factory improvements–should accelerate in 2011. Auto sales, currently a bit above 11 million a year, should move up to 12 million plus with noticeable multiplier effects in the Midwest and Upland South.

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TALK BACK: The Not So Great Recovery

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

Americans have the economy scoped.

Polls indicate they sense the economy growing again, but many more believe the job market is getting worse than see it improving.

Over the next three years, the economy must create nearly 13 million jobs to bring unemployment down to 5%–still higher than pre-recession levels. That requires 360,000 jobs every month and economic growth at 5% a year.

After a deep recession, robust growth is possible if businesses have enough customers and capital, but President Obama’s policies don’t address the underlying causes of the Great Recession. Neither enough demand nor financing are forthcoming.

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TALK BACK: US Economy Adds 290,000 Jobs But Unemployment Jumps

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

The Labor Department reported the economy added 290,000 jobs in April but the unemployment rate increased to 9.9%, versus 9.7% the previous three months.

Federal government employment increased 65,000, boosted by temporary Census hiring, but the private sector added 231,000. Even the long-beleaguered manufacturing sector added 44,000.

Unemployment rose as many discouraged workers returned to the labor force and unemployment benefits ran out for some workers, pushing families harder into the jobs market.

The Great Recession destroyed more than 8.4 million jobs. To bring down the unemployment rate, the economy must add about 150,000 jobs a month to accommodate adult population growth, reentry of discouraged workers, part-time employees who would prefer full-time work, and marginally-occupied self-employed workers. Including these three groups, unemployment is closer to 20% than the 9.9% headline figure.

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