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These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

Thursday, the Commerce Department is expected to report the deficit on international trade in goods and services was $44 billion in August, up from $42 billion in July.

Imported oil and subsidized imports from China account for nearly the entire $525 billion annual trade gap and pose the most significant barriers to robust growth and jobs creation.

The economic recovery began five months after Barack Obama took office, and gross domestic product growth has averaged 2.2%. In October 2009, unemployment peaked at 10%, but has fallen to 7.8%, however, about 90% of that reduction has been caused by a falling percent of adult Americans seeking work.

Ronald Reagan inherited a similarly troubled economy with unemployment cresting at 10.8% early in his presidency. When he sought re-election, the economy was growing at 6.3%, unemployment was 7.3% and a rising percentage of Americans were seeking work. Continue reading…

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

On Friday, forecasters expect the Labor Department to report the economy added 113,000 jobs in September, a monthly pace too slow to return the nation to full employment.

The economy must add more than 375,000 jobs each month for three years to lower unemployment to 6% and that is not likely with current policies.

Most analysts see the unemployment rate steady at 8.1%, while a few see an increase. The wild card is the number of adults actually working or seeking jobs, the measure of the labor force used to calculate the unemployment rate.

Were the labor force participation rate the same today as when unemployment peaked above 10% in October 2009, the unemployment rate would still be about 10%. Were it the same as when President Barack Obama took office, it would be about 11%. Continue reading…

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

A Republican article of faith is that high unemployment should put Governor Mitt Romney in the White House. With their candidate fading in the polls as the debates approach, party operatives focus on tactical corrections, but fail to grasp that the basic GOP message–lower taxes, deregulation and free trade–is unappealing to voters scarred by the Great Recession and corporate abuses.

Mr. Romney would lower personal and corporate income tax rates, financed by eliminating deductions, credits and loopholes totaling nearly $500 billion. Almost certainly, that nixes cherished middle-class benefits like the mortgage interest deduction. By shifting around the tax burden rather than reducing it, he gives President Barack Obama the opening to charge that he would raise taxes on many middle class families.

Streamlining regulation to open up petroleum development in the Gulf, off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts and in Alaska could cut oil imports in half and create 2.5 million jobs–without adding to CO2 emissions or environmental risks. However, Mr. Romney has not explained the latter–he wrongly assumes swing voters embrace conservative doubts about global warming and don’t harbor lasting fears from Deepwater Horizon.

He repeats this lack of empathy on many issues.

Dodd-Frank imposes an unnecessary overlay of new regulations that curtail prudent lending and smother regional banks. The financial collapse was caused by accounting frauds the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley reforms should have caught but didn’t, because the Treasury is too much in the vest pocket of the Wall Street aristocracy.

After trillions in Federal Reserve and Treasury bailouts, multimillion dollar paydays continue for big bank CEOs and their lieutenants, allegedly for “talent”–the remarkable aptitude to nearly destroy global capitalism through irresponsible business practices. Hardly a week goes by without new revelations about schemes to rook investors or evade taxes. Continue reading…

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

On Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported the deficit on international trade in goods and services was $42 billion in July, up slightly from $41.9 billion in June.

Imported oil and subsidized imports from China account for nearly the entire $500 billion annual trade gap and pose the most significant barriers to robust growth and job creation.

The trade deficit on oil moderated a bit as economic activity slowed and prices fell from earlier in the year, but the trade gap with China continues to increase and now exceeds $350 billion on an annual basis.

The economic recovery began five months after President Barack Obama took office, and GDP growth has averaged 2.2%. In October 2009, unemployment peaked above 10%, but has fallen to 8.1% entirely because fewer Americans are seeking work.

Ronald Reagan inherited a similarly troubled economy, with unemployment cresting at 10.8% early in his presidency. When he sought re-election, the economy was growing at 6.3%, unemployment was 7.3%, and a rising percentage of Americans were seeking work. Continue reading…

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

The economy added 163,000 jobs in July. Although an improvement over the first quarter, the ranks of the unemployed swelled another 45,000.

The unemployment rate rose to 8.3%, even as 348,000 workers quit looking for work and were no longer counted in the official jobless tally.

In the weakest recovery since the Great Depression, nearly the entire reduction in unemployment since October 2009 has been accomplished through a significant drop in the percentage of adults participating in the labor force–either working or looking for work.

Economic growth slowed to 1.5% in the second quarter, as consumers pulled back and the trade deficit on oil and with China continued to drag on demand. The outlook for the second half of the year is not much better. Car sales are stronger than a year ago, but are not likely to improve much further, and housing prices have risen in recent months but on weak volumes. Continue reading…

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

Friday, forecasters expect the Labor Department to report the economy added 100,000 jobs in July, not enough to keep pace with growth in the working age population.

Most analysts see the unemployment rate steady at 8.2%, while a few see an increase. The wildcard is the number of adults actually working or seeking jobs–the measure of the labor force used to calculate the unemployment rate.

Adding adults on the sidelines, who say they would reenter the labor market if conditions improved, and part-time workers, who would prefer full-time positions, the unemployment rate becomes nearly 15%.

Adults who have quit looking and left the labor force altogether are responsible for 99% of the reduction in the unemployment rate from 10% since October 2009.

Many adults have reason to be discouraged. New jobs pay lower wages than did those lost during the recession and job openings remain scarce. Continue reading…

 These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

No issue is more misunderstood, or has been more purposefully confused by the Romney and Obama campaigns, than outsourcing.

Outsourcing is merely the importing side of international trade: purchasing abroad goods and services, along with components to assemble final products in the U.S.

Just about everyone who has had a choice between buying a U.S.-made product or an import–a car, a wedge of cheese or a movie online–must admit that two-way trade based on legitimate comparative advantages is a good thing.

If Americans expect folks abroad to purchase Boeing Co. (BA) aircraft and Intel Corp. (INTC) processors, then they had better be prepared to outsource some of what they purchase directly, or through the firms that assemble products domestically and their government.

The problem is not outsourcing but rather it is inappropriate outsourcing: purchasing abroad products that could be made as or more cost-effectively at home. That happens when U.S. policy throws up unnecessary barriers to domestic production; foreign governments unfairly subsidize businesses or simply keep out competitive U.S. products; or U.S. firms have an inappropriate bias toward foreign sourcing. Continue reading…

 These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

On Friday, the Commerce Department is expected to report the deficit on international trade in goods and services was $49.3 billion in April, down from $51.8 billion in March.

The $600 billion annual deficit is the most significant barrier to achieving a robust economic recovery and adequate job creation, and consumer goods from China and oil account for virtually the entire problem.

Economists agree the pace of economic recovery has disappointed because of weak demand for what Americans make. Consumers are spending; however, every dollar that goes abroad to purchase oil or Chinese consumer goods, and does not return to purchase U.S. exports, is lost demand that could be creating U.S. jobs. Continue reading…

 These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

The Commerce Department reported the deficit on international trade in goods and services was $51.8 billion in March. This was up from $45.4 billion in February, thanks to weakening conditions in Europe and chronic deficits with China and in petroleum.

The $620 billion annual deficit is the most significant barrier to economic recovery and creating jobs, and consumer goods from China and oil account for virtually the entire problem.

Economists agree the pace of economic recovery has been too slow, because of too little demand for what Americans make.

Consumers are spending again, the process of winding down household debt that followed the Great Recession; however, too many consumer dollars go abroad to purchase Middle East oil and Chinese consumer goods but do not return to buy U.S. exports. Consequently, businesses can’t justify expanding U.S. facilities and hiring workers.

Since the economic recovery began in June 2009, the trade deficit has doubled and GDP growth has averaged a disappointing 2.4% a year. Unemployment has fallen from above 10% to 8.1% mostly because Americans have quit looking for work, not found jobs. Continue reading…

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

Thursday, the U.S. Commerce Department is expected to report the deficit on international trade in goods and services was $51.7 billion in February, down just slightly from January.

The $620 billion annual trade gap is the most significant barrier to more robust growth and jobs creation, and oil and subsidized imports from China are the culprits.

Jobs Creation

In March, the economy added 120,000 jobs, but 362,000 jobs must be created each month for three years to lower unemployment to 6%.

Unemployment is down to 8.2% from 10% in October 2009, largely because working-aged adults are dropping out of the labor market–they are neither employed, nor seeking work. Continue reading…