These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:
On Friday, forecasters expect the Labor Department to report the economy added 113,000 jobs in September, a monthly pace too slow to return the nation to full employment.
The economy must add more than 375,000 jobs each month for three years to lower unemployment to 6% and that is not likely with current policies.
Most analysts see the unemployment rate steady at 8.1%, while a few see an increase. The wild card is the number of adults actually working or seeking jobs, the measure of the labor force used to calculate the unemployment rate.
Were the labor force participation rate the same today as when unemployment peaked above 10% in October 2009, the unemployment rate would still be about 10%. Were it the same as when President Barack Obama took office, it would be about 11%. Continue reading…