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These are the personal views of Thomas Lam, group chief economist at OSK Group/DMG & Partners:

The first-quarter advance real GDP figure reported last Friday, up 3.2% at an annual rate, was close to our forecast and consensus expectations. But the growth composition was nonetheless surprising. For instance, the moderation in business capital spending was more tempered, while government spending, with the drop in state and local outstripping the rise in federal, recorded consecutive declines.

As the contribution from inventories to overall GDP growth begins to fade, the focus will shift to other categories of demand. Evidently, consumer outlays and business capital spending have thus far driven the recovery in final demand.

While we expect nonresidential structures to languish further, the negative contributions from residential investment and net exports are likely to reverse modestly this quarter. Continue reading…

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

Economists are looking for a breakthrough employment report that will send the stock market soaring, and buoy Democrats coming off a big win on health care.

Friday, the Labor Department releases the March employment report. In February, the economy shed 36,000 jobs, as the unemployment rate was steady at 9.7%, but economists believe Northeast blizzards held down jobs creation.

For March, the consensus of forecasters expects a 200,000 jobs gain, though estimates range from a loss of 40,000 jobs to a gain exceeding 300,000. My forecast is for a gain of 150,000. Continue reading…

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

Friday, the Labor Department will release January employment figures. Since December 2007, the economy has been shedding jobs and a sharp uptick in employment would indicate the recession is ending.

In December, the economy lost 85,000 jobs after gaining 4,000 in November and losing 127,000 in October. The unemployment rate stood steady at 10%, largely because 843,000 unemployed adults became discouraged and left the labor force–quit looking for work.

For January, analysts are ambivalent, forecasting no change in the jobs count and a slight uptick in unemployment to 10.1%. My forecast is for loss in the range of 25,000 jobs and for unemployment to rise to 10.1%.

Although some indicators of economic activity, such as gross domestic product, industrial production and consumer confidence, have shown gains, others such as retail sales and durable goods orders have been soft. Continue reading…