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These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

Friday, the Labor Department will release April employment data, and economists are optimistic the economy will show stronger jobs creation.

The consensus forecast, based on surveys of economists taken at the end of last week, is for a 180,000 jobs gain in April, after adding 162,000 jobs in March. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 9.7 percent. My forecasts for April likewise are 180,000 jobs added and 9.7 percent unemployment.

The Great Recession destroyed 8.4 million jobs. To bring down the unemployment rate, the economy must add about 150,000 jobs a month to accommodate adult population growth, reentry of discouraged workers, part-time employees who would prefer full-time work, and marginally-occupied self-employed workers. Including these three groups, unemployment is closer to 20% than the 9.7% headline figure. Continue reading…

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

Friday, the Labor Department will release March employment data, and economists have been optimistic the economy is finally gaining jobs and the recession has ended.

The consensus forecast, based on surveys of economists taken at the end of last week, is for a 200,000 jobs gain in March. The economy shed 36,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 9.7%.

The ADP estimate for private sector jobs creation, released Wednesday, indicated a 23,000 loss, but that estimate does not include government workers and does not always track more comprehensive Labor Department estimates of private employment. Continue reading…

These are the personal views of Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer of Merk Investments, a currency-focused firm based in Palo Alto, Calif.:

Forget about the flight to the dollar at the peak of the financial crisis: the yen was the ultimate beneficiary. The endlessly quoted unwinding of the carry trade was a factor, but there may have been a more important force at play. As that force may now be under increased pressure, the yen may be in trouble. The force we are talking about is the free market.

How can market forces drive up the yen when Japan has been a leader in quantitative easing, the “art” of printing money? Japan epitomizes the battle between market and government forces. Left to its own powers, Japan’s economy would have imploded after its asset bubble burst in 1990. While painful, the good news about a deflationary collapse is that you can rebuild; a collapse is also a brutal way of weeding out those with too much debt. Instead, the government has, to varying degrees, been fighting market forces ever since. However, as of late, the Japanese have relaxed their attack on free market dynamics, in large part as a result of weak leadership.

Fighting market forces can be extremely expensive. If market forces ultimately win–i.e. the collapse ultimately happens–it’s possible for a country to destroy its currency along the way. Left to market forces, those with debt likely go broke. Left to policy makers, everyone may eventually go broke.

Continue reading…