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These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

To avert the fiscal cliff, President Barack Obama may get Republican cooperation in soaking the rich, but the deal that emerges could put the nation in dire straits by the end of the decade.

The Budget Act of 2011 requires the president and Congress to cut federal deficits by $1.2 trillion over nine years, or annual defense and nonentitlement outlays automatically will be reduced $107 billion annually in January. Also, the Bush tax cuts, payroll tax reductions and other assorted programs expire.

Overall, annual spending would be cut $136 billion, taxes raised $532 billion, and economists fear a staggering recession would result pushing the unemployment rate into the teens.

President Obama wants to raise tax rates on families and many small businesses earning more than $250,000, and Congressional Republicans would like to curb entitlements by increasing Medicare premiums paid by wealthier participants and slowing Social Security cost of living increases. Continue reading…

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

America’s finances are headed for a train wreck.

By Nov. 23, the Supercommittee in Congress must come up with a package to cut the federal deficit by $1.2 trillion over ten years or draconian cuts in defense and discretionary spending follow.

Something still may be cobbled together but the federal deficit would remain too large, and could easily fly out of control. Genuine progress is not possible, because the principals won’t even accept the facts.

Democrats harp that Bush tax cuts, wars and the prescription-drug plan for seniors caused the deficit to swell to $1.3 trillion in 2011. Yet, with all those at play, the deficit was only $161 billion in 2007.

Spending is up $847 billion, and additional temporary tax cuts–such as the payroll tax holiday–account for the rest of the increased deficit. Only $62 billion was necessary to accommodate inflation, and social security, health care and other entitlements account for 78% of the rest.

Most economists agree GDP growth is likely to be in the range of 2% over the next several years, and such slow growth and high unemployment will accelerate spending on entitlements, while retarding the growth of tax revenues. Continue reading…

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

Whether the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction reaches a deal to reduce the federal deficit by at least $1.2 trillion or stalemates on Nov. 23, Democrats appear intent on handicapping the national economy with higher taxes and imperiling national security by cutting defense. Those are the wrong places to solve the nation’s budget woes.

In 2007, just prior to the financial crisis and when Democrats took control of Congress, the deficit was a manageable $161 billion. Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were ongoing, and Bush tax cuts and prescription benefits for seniors were in place.

In 2011, two years after the recession ended, the deficit is $1.3 trillion. Spending is up $847 billion, and additional temporary tax cuts–such as the payroll tax holiday–account for the rest. Of the $847 billion, only $62 billion was necessary to accommodate inflation, and social security, health care and other entitlements account for 78% of the rest.

Repeatedly, Democrats President Barack Obama and Majority Leader Harry Reid have exhorted Social Security is not contributing to the deficit, but the program began paying out more than its receipts in 2009, and the Trust Fund will be entirely depleted by 2036. Continue reading…

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

Seeking to boost housing and jumpstart the flagging economy, the Federal Reserve will push down mortgage rates a bit by purchasing $400 billion in long term Treasury securities.

Operation Twist will likely raise short rates even as it lowers long rates, because the Fed will sell Treasurys with maturities of less than three years to purchase an equal amount of Treasurys with maturities from six to 30 years. Those purchases will be undertaken gradually and completed by the end June 2012

Lowering mortgage rates a bit may help, but it won’t have the salutary effect on home purchases needed to raise real-estate prices and get consumers, whose balance sheets remain weak and have lost confidence in President Obama and Congress, to start spending again. Continue reading…

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

President Barack Obama faces three daunting challenges–jobs, deficits and re-election. His actions reveal he places a second term ahead of fixing the economy and federal finances.

If Obama runs on the economy, he loses. Too many voters are unemployed, underemployed, standing discouraged on the sidelines, or watching their paychecks dwindle for Obama to win. And most voters recognize, had President Obama’s economic policies permitted the economy to grow as it should, deficits in Washington and state capitals would be much more manageable.

If he runs on handling the financial crisis, he loses. He inherited a mess, but trillions in bailouts for Wall Street, Chrysler and GM rewarded the best-paid white collar and blue collar workers for lousy management and worse, while the other 98% watch their paychecks shrink in value. Now charges of fraud in his solar energy program and revelations about White House management dysfunction cast a president lacking judgment and leadership qualities.

On both jobs and the deficit, the president seeks to present a sharp contrast with his eventual GOP rival premised on “fairness”–presenting himself as guardian of the working family, and his prospective Republican opponents as champions of privilege.

An additional $447 million in stimulus and tax cuts, over two years, if spent smartly, could create about 2.5 million jobs for that period. However, he proposes paying for teachers by cutting aid to states for health-care workers and that won’t create many jobs. Extending the payroll tax holiday for the middle class by taxing those who earn over $200,000 only adds marginally to new spending and few jobs. Continue reading…

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

The Commerce Department reported the deficit on international trade in goods and services was $48.2 billion in March, up from $45.4 billion in February. The deficit on oil surged $5.8 billion on higher prices and increased volumes.

This trade deficit subtracts from demand for U.S.-made goods and services, just as a large federal budget deficit adds to it. Consequently, a rising deficit slows economic recovery and jobs creation and limits how much Congress and the President may cut the deficit without sinking the economic recovery.

Rising oil prices and imports from China are driving the trade deficit up, and these are major barriers to creating enough jobs to pull unemployment down to acceptable levels over the next several years. Continue reading…

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

Analysts expect the Commerce Department to report on Wednesday the deficit on international trade in goods and services was $47.7 billion in March, up from $45.8 billion in February.

This trade deficit subtracts from demand for U.S.-made goods and services, just as a large federal budget deficit adds to it. Consequently, a rising deficit slows economic recovery and jobs creation and limits how much Congress and the President may cut the deficit without sinking the economic recovery.

Rising oil prices and imports from China are driving the trade deficit up, and these are major barriers to creating enough jobs to pull unemployment down to acceptable levels over the next several years.

Jobs Creation

The economy added 244,000 jobs in April; however, 360,000 jobs must be added per month to bring unemployment down to 6% over the next 36 months. With federal and state governments trimming civil servants, private-sector jobs growth must exceed 360,000 per month to accomplish this goal.

Americans have returned to the malls and new car showrooms but too many dollars go abroad to purchase Middle East oil and Chinese consumer goods that do not return to buy U.S. exports. This leaves too many Americans jobless and wages stagnant, and state and municipal governments with chronic budget woes.

Simply, policies regarding energy and trade with China are not creating conditions for the 5% GDP growth that is needed and easily could be achieved to bring unemployment down to acceptable levels.

In April, the private-sector added 268,000 jobs per month, but many were in government-subsidized health care and social services. Netting those out, core private-sector jobs have increased only 229,000 in April. That comes to 73 non-government-subsidized jobs per county for more than 5,000 job seekers per county.

Early in a recovery, temporary jobs appear first, but 22 months into the expansion, permanent, non-government-subsidized jobs creation should be much stronger.

Economic Growth

Since the recovery began in mid 2009, GDP growth has averaged 2.8%, disappointing administration economists who have consistently assumed 4% growth in budget projections and forecasts for the job-creating effects of stimulus spending.

Consumer spending, business technology and auto sales have added strongly to demand and growth, and exports have done quite well. However, soaring oil prices and the continued push of subsidized Chinese manufactures in U.S. markets have offset those positive trends.

Administration imposed regulatory limits on conventional oil and gas development are premised on false assumptions about the immediate potential of electric cars and alternative energy sources, such as solar panels and windmills. In combination, administration energy policies are pushing up the cost of driving and making the United States even more dependent on imported oil and indebted to China and other overseas creditors to pay for it.

To keep Chinese products artificially inexpensive on U.S. store shelves, Beijing undervalues the yuan by 40%. It accomplishes this by printing yuan and selling those for dollars and other currencies in foreign-exchange markets.

Presidents Bush and Obama have sought to alter Chinese policies through negotiations, but Beijing offers only token gestures and cultivates political support among U.S. multinationals producing in China and large banks seeking additional business in China.

The United States should impose a tax on dollar-yuan conversions in an amount equal to China’s currency market intervention divided by its exports–about 35%. That would neutralize China’s currency subsidies that steal U.S. factories and jobs. It is not protectionism; rather, in the face of virulent Chinese currency manipulation and mercantilism, it’s self defense.