Talk Back

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

Prime Minister George Papandreou is correct to put the EU bailout package to a vote. Without public consent to the tough austerity imposed by the EU aid package, those measures will not be sustained–a future government can balk at its conditions and start spending again.

For their part, the EU, the IMF and leaders in Germany and other wealthy countries are falsely convinced no good solution for the Greek mess exists other than the package now offered Athens. Continue reading…

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

Friday, economists expect the Labor Department will report the economy added 200,000 jobs in March. After adding 192,000 jobs in February, this would indicate the economy is finally accomplishing momentum.

The February gain was in sharp contrast to weaker gains the previous 13 months, and largely resulted from stronger, potentially self-sustaining private sector jobs growth.

As measured by GDP, the economic recovery began in July 2009, but the economy didn’t begin adding jobs until January 2010.

Through January 2011, the economy only gained 77,000 jobs a month, mostly thanks to stimulus spending, temporary business services, and health care and social services, which are heavily subsidized by federal and state governments. Job gains in the core private sector — private employment less temporary business services, and health care social services and temporary business services — averaged only 45,000 a month.

Core private sector jobs are so important because those have the potential to set off a virtuous cycle of hiring, consumer spending and more hiring. In February, this barometer of private sector vitality gained 170,000 new positions. A similarly strong core private sector gain will be needed to add 200,000 new jobs overall in March. If that is accomplished, we may finally be getting someplace. Continue reading…

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address and Rep. Paul Ryan’s Republican response offered few new ideas and weren’t forthright about what needs to be done to get America thriving again.

The November elections plainly established voters want less government and a focus on jobs, and they don’t believe Americans have to choose between the two.

President Obama proposed freezing domestic discretionary spending to reduce the deficit by $400 billion over 10 years, but he offered no substantive changes to Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security and other entitlements. That simply doesn’t cut it.

In 2007, the year before the recession, government spending was $2.7 trillion–less than 20% of gross domestic product–and the deficit was a manageable $161 billion. In 2011, with the economy recovered, spending will top $3.8 trillion–more than 25% of GDP–and the deficit will be about $1.4 trillion

Simply, the Democrats took control of the Congress in 2007 and used the recession as cover to permanently increase spending on the regulatory bureaucracy, entitlements and industrial policies by $1.1 trillion, and the leading edge of the Baby Boomers has begun to tax the Social Security and Medicare trust funds.

Now, the president proposes to address about 40% of the gap over the next decade. Essentially, he is laying a trap–daring Republicans to solve runaway health-care costs and Social Security, knowing how Americans react to the bearers of bad news.

Continue reading…

By Palash R. Ghosh
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN

The lowly U.S. dollar might be a blessing, not a curse.

Exports by U.S. companies are surging, largely due to the favorable currency exchange impact of the declining greenback. In the absence  of robust domestic consumer spending, the export market might be  the easiest way to jump-start the economy and glide the nation decisively out of this nearly two-year recession.

A weak dollar can provide U.S. corporations with a competitive advantage in the global marketplace, something they haven’t enjoyed  in decades. Higher labor costs here are somewhat relieved by the effects of a weaker currency, said Michael Yoshikami, President of YCMNET Advisors.

“If you look at the recent trade numbers, there is a significant amount of purchases being made by foreign countries for U.S. goods and  services. These increased sales overseas should boost the top- and  bottom-lines in the third and fourth quarters, and perhaps into next year,” he said. Continue reading…