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These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

The Commerce Department reported the deficit on international trade in goods and services was $46.3 billion in January, up from $40.26 billion in December and $27 billion in mid-2009, when the recovery began. Deficits on oil and with China jumped $1.2 billion and $2.6 billion, respectively, and the overall trade deficit is blocking the creation of 3 million jobs each year.

This rising deficit subtracts from demand for U.S. goods and services, just as stimulus spending and additional temporary tax cuts add to it. Consequently, a rising deficit slows economic recovery and jobs creation, and the Obama Administration and Republican leadership in Congress have offered little to address it.

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These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

Americans have the economy scoped.

Polls indicate they sense the economy growing again, but many more believe the job market is getting worse than see it improving.

Over the next three years, the economy must create nearly 13 million jobs to bring unemployment down to 5%–still higher than pre-recession levels. That requires 360,000 jobs every month and economic growth at 5% a year.

After a deep recession, robust growth is possible if businesses have enough customers and capital, but President Obama’s policies don’t address the underlying causes of the Great Recession. Neither enough demand nor financing are forthcoming.

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These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

The Labor Department reported the economy added 290,000 jobs in April but the unemployment rate increased to 9.9%, versus 9.7% the previous three months.

Federal government employment increased 65,000, boosted by temporary Census hiring, but the private sector added 231,000. Even the long-beleaguered manufacturing sector added 44,000.

Unemployment rose as many discouraged workers returned to the labor force and unemployment benefits ran out for some workers, pushing families harder into the jobs market.

The Great Recession destroyed more than 8.4 million jobs. To bring down the unemployment rate, the economy must add about 150,000 jobs a month to accommodate adult population growth, reentry of discouraged workers, part-time employees who would prefer full-time work, and marginally-occupied self-employed workers. Including these three groups, unemployment is closer to 20% than the 9.9% headline figure.

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These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

Friday, the Labor Department will release April employment data, and economists are optimistic the economy will show stronger jobs creation.

The consensus forecast, based on surveys of economists taken at the end of last week, is for a 180,000 jobs gain in April, after adding 162,000 jobs in March. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 9.7 percent. My forecasts for April likewise are 180,000 jobs added and 9.7 percent unemployment.

The Great Recession destroyed 8.4 million jobs. To bring down the unemployment rate, the economy must add about 150,000 jobs a month to accommodate adult population growth, reentry of discouraged workers, part-time employees who would prefer full-time work, and marginally-occupied self-employed workers. Including these three groups, unemployment is closer to 20% than the 9.7% headline figure. Continue reading…

 These are the views of John A. Casesa, managing partner at Casesa Shapiro Group:

In 2005, in my waning days as an analyst, I wrote a report called “The Recapitalization of Detroit,” which said that the legacy U.S. auto industry was at a tipping point, about to run out of time and money. The result, I argued, would be a massive restructuring culminating in a transfer of ownership to new investors.

I envisioned confrontation with labor, weaker U.S. demand reflecting payback for big incentives, higher energy prices and higher interest rates, accelerated consolidation of the supply base, downsizing of Detroit and more market share gains for Asian auto makers.

All of this, I wrote, would be “risky for shareholders.”

How’s that for understatement?

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MARK TO MARKET: Cash For Clunkers Nightmare Is Nothing New

By Jim Murphy
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–A sage – me – once observed that some things make sense until you think about them.

Thursday, U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood surprised most of us with the news that the wildly successful “cash for clunkers” program would end at 8 p.m. EDT on Monday, Aug. 24.

When I say the program was wildly successful, I mean that the Obama administration characterized it as such, and the people who were able to get a $3,500 or $4,500 rake-off on a new car by turning in their gas-guzzling jalopies were not unhappy, either.

Car dealers, whom the bloated Beltway bureaucrats have taken their own sweet time in repaying for cash advances made under the “clunkers” program, have spent, in the words of the Freddy Fender song, “wasted days and wasted nights.” Continue reading…

By Sharon Terlep
   OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES 
 
DETROIT–General Motors Co. said Tuesday that its new Chevrolet Volt electric car is expected to get 230 miles per gallon in city driving, as the auto maker outlined a raft of vehicles headed to the U.S. market.

The Volt is at the forefront of GM’s efforts to reinvigorate a lineup that has lost market share in the U.S., with 25 new vehicles due to be launched by 2011.

GM hopes the Volt’s launch in 2010 will boost efforts to cultivate its environmental image, a key element of the company’s restructuring efforts.

The gas consumption pledge promises to start a miles-per-gallon battle among global auto makers as they rush to deliver electric cars, a segment that some executives believe could account for 10% of sales within four years.

“Having a car that gets triple-digit fuel economy can and will be a game-changer for us,” said Fritz Henderson, GM’s chief executive, at a media event.

He said he is confident the Volt’s expected combined city and highway mileage will remain in the triple digits. The company said the car will use 25 kilowatt hours per every 100 miles driven.

The Volt’s mileage and range guidance, released for the first time, reflect new guidelines for electric cars being finalized by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Nissan Motor Co. this month unveiled the LEAF, an all-electric plug-in hatchback. On Tuesday it responded to the Volt news with a reminder that the LEAF would get a 367 miles-per-gallon rating under the EPA guidelines.

Henderson acknowledged that the Volt’s high price tag, expected to be around $40,000, and lack of available public outlets are potential challenges. Buyers would be eligible for a $7,500 tax credit.

The Volt will be unprofitable for GM at launch because of the high battery and development costs. GM is counting on mass sales and economies of scale down the road to make the vehicle profitable.

The car is powered by a lithium-ion battery with a range of around 40 miles that can be recharged though a traditional power outlet. A small gas-powered engine provides power on longer drives.

Henderson said Tuesday that GM remains on track to have positive net cash flow next year and report a net profit by 2011. It also intends to increase production amid improving domestic demand following the launch of a scrappage incentive scheme.

The new GM board has said it will drive management to accelerate bringing products to market. The new lineup includes a slew of new vehicles, including new high-end compact cars for Buick and Cadillac, a convertible version of the Chevrolet Camaro and revamped version of the subcompact Chevrolet Aveo.

-By Sharon Terlep, Dow Jones Newswires; 248-204-5532; sharon.terlep@dowjones.com

The “Cash for Clunkers” program exhausted its $1 billion in funding after just one week. Do you think lawmakers should extend the program?

Every month, the author of the best Talk Back response will receive a Garmin Nüvi. Click here for contest rules.

Despite every indication the shares will prove worthless after the auto maker is restructured in bankruptcy, General Motor’s stock continues to climb, up 22% on Tuesday. Why are you buying GM shares?

By Sharon Terlep and John D. Stoll

DETROIT — Edward Whitacre Jr., who turned AT&T into the world’s largest telecommunications company as chief executive, will become chairman of General Motors Corp. (GMGMQ) when the company leaves bankruptcy, the auto maker said Tuesday.

Whitacre, 67, is known as a straight-talking, no-nonsense executive with a track record of cutting big deals and working closely with the U.S. government, skills could that prove critical for GM as it orchestrates a massive restructuring under close scrutiny of the U.S. Treasury.

His appointment comes amid a government-ordered overhaul of GM’s board of directors.

Interim Chairman Kent Kresa, charged with recruiting new board members, said Whitacre had been under consideration since the end of March, when the Obama administration ousted Rick Wagoner as GM’s chairman and chief executive officer.

“This is a guy who was very innovative, and who took a company that had a lot of advanced technology and merged it with a company that didn’t have a lot,” Kresa said, referring to SBC’s acquisition of AT&T (T) in 2005. Continue reading…