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These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

Crises in the Middle East and Japan threaten to thrust the U.S. and global economies into a second recession.

Since the economic recovery began in July 2009, GDP growth has averaged only 2.8%, a pace insufficient to bring unemployment down to acceptable levels. And that rate of growth leaves the economy too vulnerable to the slightest hiccup and a deceleration into recession.

Prior to the turmoil in the Middle East, economists were forecasting 3.5% growth for 2011, but the surge in oil prices and gasoline will likely shave half a point–perhaps more–from that rosy outlook.

Should oil surge to $140 a barrel, gasoline prices would pierce $4.00 a gallon and U.S. growth could slow to a mere 2.5%. That would be barely self-sustaining and not enough to create many jobs–likely many fewer than the 1.5 million needed each year just to keep up with population and labor-force growth.

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These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address and Rep. Paul Ryan’s Republican response offered few new ideas and weren’t forthright about what needs to be done to get America thriving again.

The November elections plainly established voters want less government and a focus on jobs, and they don’t believe Americans have to choose between the two.

President Obama proposed freezing domestic discretionary spending to reduce the deficit by $400 billion over 10 years, but he offered no substantive changes to Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security and other entitlements. That simply doesn’t cut it.

In 2007, the year before the recession, government spending was $2.7 trillion–less than 20% of gross domestic product–and the deficit was a manageable $161 billion. In 2011, with the economy recovered, spending will top $3.8 trillion–more than 25% of GDP–and the deficit will be about $1.4 trillion

Simply, the Democrats took control of the Congress in 2007 and used the recession as cover to permanently increase spending on the regulatory bureaucracy, entitlements and industrial policies by $1.1 trillion, and the leading edge of the Baby Boomers has begun to tax the Social Security and Medicare trust funds.

Now, the president proposes to address about 40% of the gap over the next decade. Essentially, he is laying a trap–daring Republicans to solve runaway health-care costs and Social Security, knowing how Americans react to the bearers of bad news.

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These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

The day of the “Flash Crash,” I was asked at an executive seminar in Jersey City, N.J., what impact Greece would have on equity markets. I replied, “It should all be over by Wednesday.”

Markets fully recovered by Wednesday; however, truth in advertising requires I report that I took the podium after the Dow had fallen more than 250 points owing to Greek worries, but prior to the computer trading blitz that created the now famous V pattern of stock prices in just about an hour.

My Blackberry off, no one alerted me to the panic unfolding on Wall Street.

Now that stocks have made up all their lost ground, what’s next?

Good things!

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These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

President Barack Obama is seeking to double U.S. exports and create 2 million jobs over the next five years. The new Commerce Department program to accomplish this goal is simply inadequate.

The Commerce Department initiative merely consists of redoubling existing efforts and not addressing the fundamental issues–the undervalued Chinese yuan and high tariffs, and other regulatory barriers that block U.S. exports in much of Asia.

Commerce Secretary Gary Locke is launching a program by increasing Export-Import Bank funding for small businesses from $4 billion to $6 billion; boosting Commerce Department personnel that assist exporters at U.S. embassies and consulates in China and India; and strengthening enforcement of trade laws and agreements. Continue reading…

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:

Since the Democrats’ debacle in Massachusetts, President Barack Obama has been campaigning.

In the State of the Union address, his new budget and other staged events for the faithful gather for hope, the president has the audacity to double down on class warfare and crowd-frenzying envy, and tout as success an economic recovery about as thin as the Chicago Cubs’ World Series record book.

The economy is growing again but the president instead of divining new tax-the-rich and spend policies should recognize the economic recovery simply won’t create enough jobs to drive down unemployment, because his administration has not addressed the trade deficit. Continue reading…