Real Estate

Looking West (East) For Stock Market Clues

Posted by Rick Stine on January 17, 2011
Banks, China, Real Estate, Stock Market / Comments Off

It wasn’t a good day for Chinese stock markets on Monday. And unless U.S. companies unleash some positive earnings news on Tuesday, stock markets in the U.S. could be under pressure as well.

The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 3.0% while the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 4.3%. Both were reacting to Friday’s news from the People’s Bank of China, which said it will raise the share of deposits that banks must keep on reserve by half a percentage point. this is the seventh time in a year the bank has done so and follows two interest-rate hikes since October.

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The Devil Made Me Do It…

We learn today that giant insurance company Allstate has sued BankAmerica and its Countrywide Financial unit over a bum investment. It seems Allstate bought $700 million of Collateralized Debt Obligations from Countrywide which were backed by residential mortgages originated by the mortgage lender. Allstate believes Countrywide misrepresented  the quality of the portfolio.

Well, we don’t know yet the merits of this case – and we don’t know exactly what Countrywide disclosed in the offering documents for this CDO (were these stated-income mortgages? was performance of the mortgages listed in the documents? default rates? delinquencies?) To be sure, Countrywide originated some really bad mortgages and it is entirely possible that some of those made their way into the CDO Allstate bought.

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BMO Took Hard Look At M&I Real Estate Exposure

At first, it’s hard to tell if BMO Financial Group’s $4.1 billion acquisition of Marshall & Ilsley is about a strategic expansion of business in the U.S. or an opportunistic buy of a bank beat up by bad real estate loans.

The answer is it is probably both. Marshall & Ilsley has lost money for nearly two years because its loan portfolio – heavily commercial – soured across the board. But it has a strong deposit footprint in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Florida and Arizona.

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Velocity An Interesting CRE Play

Posted by Rick Stine on August 30, 2010
Commercial Real Estate, Initial Public Offerings, Real Estate, Real Estate Investment Trusts / Comments Off

Investors looking for a play on the commercial real estate market but don’t have the stomach for defaults and declining property values may have an interesting alternative on the horizon. The company is Velocity Commercial Capital and it filed to go public late last week. It’s relatively small but that’s what makes it attractive.

The company originates or buys small business commercial real estate loans. All are first lein. And the largest loan it will get involved with is $3 million. The average loan value in its portfolio is $391,000.

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A Deal That Touched Many Troubled Firms

The SEC alleges Goldman's work on a CDO enabled something else

The SEC alleges Goldman's work on a CDO enabled something else

It’s hard to say that the structured financing transaction at the heart of latest Wall Street scandal was what ultimately led to the credit crisis. But this transaction did involve a number of banks with financial ties to the deal that ultimately had to be bailed out.

This latest Wall Street drama has also dragged into it two of the biggest players on both sides of the financial markets – Goldman Sachs and hedge fund Paulson & Co.

The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged Goldman with fraud because it said the firm and an employee knowingly created a deception that allowed Paulson to make a billion dollars. The story involves some other favorite bad guys – subprime mortgages and complicated structured financial instruments. Paulson wasn’t charged.

The question is what this case might ultimately mean for both Goldman and Paulson.

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China Inflation Data May Create (A Bit Of) Policy Space

Posted by Rosalind Mathieson on April 15, 2010
Asia-Pacific, China, Commodities, Economy, Emerging Markets, Real Estate / Comments Off

China has posted reassuringly-solid gross domestic product figures for the first quarter, but the more interesting read comes from inflation.

GDP grew 11.9% on the year, a little higher than economists had expected but largely in line with the view the country’s impressive recovery has legs.

Indeed, the focus of late has turned more to potential bubbles and associated risks as growth picks up. That’s where Thursday’s inflation data for March come in.

The consumer price index rose 2.4%, slower than February’s 2.7% rise and below market expectations for a 2.6% increase. 

To some extent that’s a bit of a blip, and prices should remain pressured up by higher food and fuel costs. Authorities continue to warn about the need to be on guard against imported inflation pressures from rising commodity prices.

But the data may also give Beijing a bit more space to stick to targeted steps to curb liquidity and limit bubbles in sectors like real estate (which admittedly is a worry, with urban property prices growing at the fastest pace in close to five years in March and the State Council saying Thursday it will “resolutely curb” excessive property price rises), rather than doing something more broad and aggressive like raise interest rates.

Rates are a pretty blunt tool for a country needing to pull on the reins in some areas, while continuing to give other sectors a helping hand.

Indeed, Li Xiaochao, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said Thursday the CPI is basically stable. Economic growth that hasn’t yet ignited a major inflation fire is a good outcome for the first quarter.

It could be the People’s Bank of China can hold off on monetary tightening until the second half of the year.

The key question is how pre-emptive authorities want to be.

Hike rates in the next few months to keep inflation at bay, and it could slow the economy more than Beijing wants. Leave rates alone until late this year, in order to support the recovery, and inflation could become a real problem.

The solution probably lies somewhere in the middle.

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Excel REIT Has Twist On CRE Purchases

Posted by Rick Stine on April 12, 2010
Commercial Mortgages, Initial Public Offerings, Real Estate / 1 Comment
Debt Coming Due In A Market Not Friendly To Refinancings

Debt Coming Due In A Market Not Friendly To Refinancings

If you believe we are at, or near, a bottom in the commercial real estate market, Excel Trust has a deal for you. This real estate investment trust plans to raise between $240 million and $270 million in an initial public offering to go out and buy retail properties on the cheap.

What’s a little different about the Excel deal is that it has lined up 16 retail properties to buy upon completion of the IPO. Other REITs that have looked to take advantage of the distressed commercial real estate market raised the money first and then planed to go bottom fishing. So with Excel, you know which properties are being bought and can make an investment decision on that rather than investing in a blind pool.

The 16 properties are 93.5% leased and the company has a pipeline of other properties, too. Given the large amount of commercial mortgage backed securities coming due this year and next, Excel believes those will have a difficult time getting refinanced and therefore there will be even more sales at distressed prices. As Excel says in its offering documents, it believes it can buy “Class A” properties at “Class B” prices. Class A are defined as those in prime locations.

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Ambac Shares Fly But RMBS Losses Remain

Posted by Rick Stine on April 09, 2010
Credit Crisis, Credit Markets, Derivatives, Mortgages, Real Estate / 1 Comment
Ambac's shares are up 70% today

Ambac's shares are up 70% today

Ok, it is good news for Ambac that the monoline insurer of bonds posted a profit late yesterday of $558 million versus a $2.3 billion loss in the year ago quarter. But the fact remains that when you peel away some of the items behind the earnings, the company still didn’t perform all that well.

For starters, it had a $133.2 million gain related to the change in value of its credit derivatives portfolio. Add to that a $472 million tax benefit. Those numbers alone add up to $605 million of gains.

It continues to see stress in its portfolio of residential mortgage backed securities. The company recorded a net loss of $385.4 million.

The worst may be over for companies like Ambac. But that doesn’t mean they are finished feeling the pain of the credit crisis.

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Maiden Lane Is In My Ears And In My Eyes

Posted by Rick Stine on April 07, 2010
Bank Rescue Plan, Banks, Commercial Mortgages, Credit Crisis, Investing, Mortgages, Real Estate, Wall Street / Comments Off
The New York Fed on Maiden Lane

The New York Fed on Maiden Lane

The Securities and Exchange Commission today approved a rule today designed to reduce the risk in markets like those for asset-backed securities. But some real questions remain as to whether the new rule would really prevent much of anything.

Basically, the SEC wants issuers of asset-backed securities to retain at least 5% of the securities they are offering. As SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro says: It will force them to have some “skin in the game.”

But will making issuers have “skin in the game” really make them more responsible in evaluating risk?

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These People Are Smarter Than Me, But…

Posted by Rick Stine on February 02, 2010
Earnings, Real Estate / Comments Off

metlifeI’m  simple minded guy. So, one of the many things I don’t understand is this – if you call something a “hedge,” what that’s supposed to mean is that you locked in some value today and have protected yourself against future losses (and potentially missed out on future gains) on the value of some underlying asset.

Which brings us to MetLife. The big insurer said today that its net investment losses in the fourth quarter were $557 million. About $527 million of those losses were connected to derivatives.

Outside of derivatives, the investment portfolio itself was down 82%. “Strong performance from corporate joint ventures and hedge funds was offset by negative returns from real estate funds.” More evidence that pain from real estate investments will continue into the year.

It will be interesting to hear how transparently the company speaks about the derivative losses and the real estate portfolio – what the exposure is, what are the investments, etc.

Conference call Wednesday morning. We shall see.

INVESTMENTS
– General account portfolio yield increased
to 5.07%, up from 4.71% at
December 31, 2008 and 5.01% at September 30, 2009
– Net investment losses, excluding derivatives, declined 82% compared  with
the third quarter of 2009
– Cash and short-term investments decreased to $18.5 billion, due in  part
to increased investments in higher-yielding assets
Net investment income was $4.0 billion, up from $3.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008 and consistent with $4.0 billion in the third quarter of 2009. During the fourth quarter of 2009, variable investment income was above plan by $40 million ($0.05 per share), after income tax and the impact of deferred acquisition costs. Strong performance from corporate joint ventures and hedge funds was offset by negative returns from real estate funds.
Compared with the first three quarters of 2009, net investment losses continued to decline and, in the fourth quarter, were $557 million, after income tax. Approximately $527 million, after income tax, of these total net investment losses were derivative losses. The remainder was due to net losses and impairments across a broad range of asset classes, and was consistent with the company’s expectations.
MetLife uses derivatives — in connection with its broader portfolio management strategy — to hedge a number of risks, including changes in interest rates and fluctuations in foreign currencies. Movement in interest rates, foreign currencies and MetLife’s own credit spread — which impacts the valuation of certain insurance liabilities — can generate derivative gains or losses. During the quarter, an improvement in MetLife’s own credit spread contributed approximately $213 million, after income tax, to the derivative losses. Derivative losses related to the tightening of MetLife’s own credit spread do not have a direct economic impact on the company and reflect the reversal of derivative gains that occurred in late 2008 and early 2009, when MetLife’s credit spread widened. The remainder of the derivative losses was mostly due to increases in interest rates, which are, in general, offset on an economic basis across various assets and liabilities.

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