Archive for November, 2010

An FX Pair Looks To Go Public

Posted by Rick Stine on November 30, 2010
Currencies, Forex, Initial Public Offerings, Stock Market, Wall Street / Comments Off

The FX market is hot. About $4 trillion of currencies are traded every day – a number seen hitting $10 trillion in 10 years. Banks around the world are bulking up their trading desks. And Mrs. Watanabe (the proverbial Japanese housewife who day trades while her husband is at work) continues to do more business than ever all over the world.

So, it is with that backdrop that two of the platforms that cater to the retail investor are looking to go public. Gain Capital, which runs the Forex.com website, is hoping to sell 11 million shares for a maximum $190 million, while FXCM is hoping to sell 15 million shares from $13 to $15.

And while there is no question that FX is hot, investors may approach these IPOs with a little caution.

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Another Great Idea: Press Conferences By Bernanke

Posted by Neal Lipschutz on November 24, 2010
Central Banks, Congress, Economy, Federal Reserve, Media, United States, Washington / Comments Off

In a development that might seem mundane, but would have been unimaginable not all that long ago, the Federal Reserve talked about the chairman hosting press conferences.

The once secretive central bank has come to this, the possibility that Chairman Ben Bernanke would expose himself to the hurly burly of questions from members of the media.  It was in the working life of this columnist that even changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy weren’t publicly announced. They were divined from market activity.

If Bernanke press conferences became a reality, some questions would be pointed. Some would be uninformed. The answers likely would stay obscure to most citizens.

Still, it’s a great idea.

There’s no guarantee the Fed will get there. In meeting minutes released Tuesday, the topic of press briefings was referenced. The subject was addressed in a video conference of Fed policy makers on Oct. 15.

All the minutes say is this: “Participants discussed whether it might be useful for the Chairman to hold occasional presss briefings to provide more detailed information to the public regarding the Committee’s assessment of the outlook and its policy decisionmaking than is included in (the) Committee’s short post-meeting statements.”

The Committeee is the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

This special Oct. 15 video conference was described in a phrase that would make any corporate bureaucrat proud. There was no chance for that meeting to fail to accomplish. Communications issues and the pros and cons of setting a target for a term interest rate were discussed. The quote is this: “The agenda did not contemplate any policy decisions and none were taken.”

Back to the press conference idea. They should be more frequent than simply occasional, the theoretical time frame mentioned in the minutes. The Fed is a mystery to most people. Some think such economic power in the hands of independent and unelected officials is out of step with democratic institutions. Bernanke press conferences would help demystify the Fed and make it more democratic.

Like it or not, The Fed and its policies already are fodder in the political arena. The latest bond-buying plan to stimulate the economy earned the ire of a number of Republican lawmakers. In the run-up to new financial services regulation, a Democrat-controlled Congress mulled clipping the Fed’s regulatory wings and threatened its monetary policy independence. Nothing ultimaately happened there (the Fed got increased regulatory powers).

But clearly, there have been politics surrounding the Fed on both sides of the aisle.

Press conferences could help by increasing the Fed’s standing with the public, or some interested portion of it. If you wind up in Rome, do as the Romans do. Find a lectern and state your case. Take on the questions and defend your positions. Get your sound bites distributed far and wide.

Bernanke and his like-minded colleagues have mounted a decent defense of the $600 billion Treasury securities buying plan through public appearances and in speech texts. Adding press conferences makes sense as a next step.

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TPG Buys J. Crew – Again…

Posted by Rick Stine on November 23, 2010
Mergers & Acquisitions, Retailing / Comments Off

If  you are thinking the proposed $3 billion acquisition of J. Crew by buyout firm TPG has a familiar ring to it, you are right. Back in 1997, TPG took J. Crew private in a $560 million buyout. TPG and others invested about $188 million in the acquisition. It took a while, but in 2006 J. Crew was brought public again. TPG didn’t sell any shares in the offering but, according to Dow Jones LBO Wire last year, TPG sold its shares piecemeal into the market and via a secondary offering.

It’s profit – a handsome 7 times over its initial investment. Some of the sales occurred as low as $14 (shortly after the Lehman bankruptcy). And some occurred around $44. Clearly, the buyout at $43.50 has TPG thinking there is more upside in the company. It profited nicely the first go-around.  The question is whether TPG can book the same kind of returns with this buyout.

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Politics About Fed Can’t Turn To Influence On Policy

The U.S. Treasury Secretary got his tense wrong.

“It is very important to keep politics out of monetary policy,” said Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Friday, in a Bloomberg television interview.

Really, he should have said it would have been nice to have kept politics out of monetary policy. They are in, big time. Politics and the Federal Reserve may have traditionallly enjoyed an arms’-length relationship, but they were never completely separate. Now they are in a bear hug.

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A Combative Bernanke: ‘Incomplete Adjustment’

Posted by Neal Lipschutz on November 19, 2010
Central Banks, China, Economy, Emerging Markets, Federal Reserve, Forex, United States, Wall Street, Washington / Comments Off

The most interesting phrase in the surprisingly combative speech delivered in Frankfurt by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is “incomplete adjustment.”

More fully, the overly polite but still stinging quote is this, from the text of his speech at a European Central Bank conference: “An important driver of the rapid capital inflows in some emerging markets is incomplete adjustment of exchange rates in these economies, which leads investors to anticipate additional returns arising from expexcted exchange rate appreciation.”

It’s all awfully important, but the back-and-forth between the Fed and its critics, domestic and international, of quantitative easing is starting to resmeble two children standing in front of a neighbor’s broken window.

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U.S. Position Depends On The Competition

Posted by Neal Lipschutz on November 18, 2010
Asia-Pacific, Economy, European Union, United States / Comments Off

Here’s another anecdote supportive of the truism that everything is relative:

Larry Summers, the outgoing director of the Obama administration’s National Economic Council, earlier this week was making the case that while far from ideal, the U.S. economy was making progress.

“You’ve got to like our hand” in the U.S. as compared with the struggles in much of Europe and in Japan, Summers said Monday evening at The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council meeting in Washington.

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This Time a Reasonable Idea On Fed From Congress

Posted by Neal Lipschutz on November 17, 2010
Central Banks, Credit Markets, Economy, Federal Reserve, Politics, U.S. Treasurys, United States, Wall Street, Washington / Comments Off

Less than a year after Congress came too close to seriously impinging on the crucial monetary policy independence of the Federal Reserve, a much more reasonable idea about the Fed’s role is emanating from the national legislature.

Championed by a couple of conservative Republicans, the latest notion is to make the Fed more like other central banks. Like the European Central Bank, for instance.

The way to do that, according to Rep. Mike Spence, R-Ind., and Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., is to halve the “dual mandate” the Fed has been trying to fulfill for the past 33 years. That dual mandate, put simply by Eric S. Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, involves trying to achieve “the lowest possible unemployment rate consistent with price stability.”

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The Fed Stimulus Plan As Seen In Hong Kong

Posted by Rick Stine on November 14, 2010
Asia-Pacific, Economy, Federal Reserve / Comments Off

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve’s plan to buy up to $600 billion of government bonds in an effort to stimulate the economy met with mixed reviews. In some parts of Asia, like Hong Kong, the reaction isn’t mixed – it’s not liked at all.

Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, the chief executive of Hong Kong, was quoted in the South China Morning Post as being very critical of the plan. The Fed purchases are designed to lower interest rates in the U.S. And that is intended to make money less expensive to borrow, which gives people more money to spend. But what worries the HK chief executive is that investors looking for higher returns will turn to Asian markets and inflate stock, bond and property markets. “This has increased the risk of asset bubbles,” he was quoted as saying.

It is a dangerous balance. On one hand, the U.S. does need to do something to jump start one of the most important economies in the world and to the world. But if an asset bubble were to occur in Asia and a repeat of the financial crisis of 1997-1998 followed, that would do nothing to help the U.S. and global economic situation.

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Step Right Up! Get ‘Em While They Last

Posted by Rick Stine on November 10, 2010
Initial Public Offerings, Investing / Comments Off

You would never see an ad in an American newspaper hawking a stock offering like the headline on this blog suggests. But it is apparently different elsewhere around the world. As I travelled to Singapore today, I was flipping through the Straits Times when I saw this large ad that caught my eyes. In big letters on top of the ad it reads: “Initial Public Offering: Hurry! Subscribe Now!”

The ad itself touts the strengths of the company, it’s growth strategies etc. And it does contain on the  bottom a footnote that suggests investors should get hold of a prospectus to read up on the company. But in the U.S., you can’t so openly reach out to investors in this way. Maybe this approach is being a little more honest and transparent. In the U.S., companies conduct “road shows” where the corporate executives get out in front of institutional investors looking to buy some of the shares. The executives are supposed to say nothing beyond what is in the prospectus. Of course, if that was the case, no investors would come to the road shows. And the road shows are not open to anyone – a small retail investor does’t get an invite.

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Fresh Market IPO A Hit With Investors

Posted by Rick Stine on November 05, 2010
Food, Initial Public Offerings, Retailing / Comments Off

If you’ve ever walked into one of the 100 Fresh Market supermarkets, you’ll easily understand why the company’s initial public stock offering was a huge success on Day One.

The produce is super fresh, the cut of meats are incredible and for the stores that are allowed to sell wine, the selections are very good – and very affordable. Around the holidays, they have a wonderful selection of candies and cookies. And a hallmark at many of the stores – right when you walk in the door you walk past an area where they sell attractive baskets and flowers. The senses are put to work the moment you arrive.

And they have a very smart business strategy. I’ve spoken with employees at stores in Virginia Beach, Va., and Greensboro, North Carolina, over the years and they’ve told me the company doesn’t just open stores anywhere. It does a lot of demographic research to make sure it is located very close to areas of wealth. Another way of saying this is a high-end store. The one in Virginia Beach is only a couple of miles away from a Kroger, Farm Fresh and Food Lion. And it is always packed.

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