Randomly Noted

For the world’s major auto makers, life has moved on in the early months of 2010: Even battered and bruised players like Chrysler and GM are starting to make convincing cases they’ll survive and maybe even thrive. So, if you’re an investor or a car buyer – or both – what to make of the mess at Toyota? Here’s how I see it: On one hand, it’s a very good time to buy Toyota – shares and vehicles. It’s quite possible Toyota’s reputation and finances haven’t quite hit rock-bottom yet, as this week’s runaway car episode in California makes clear.  Yet,  Toyota is moving to fix its technical problems, will almost certainly get a grip on them in short order, and is now actively managing each eruption with improving public-relations aplomb. The cost of a global recall will soon be priced into Toyota shares if it hasn’t already. But I can’t help thinking people are going to stay away from Toyota for a while. It may not be wise financially; I have a feeling that people buying Toyota shares cheap now will make a pile of money in a couple of years when the auto maker makes a comeback. People will write books about Toyota’s fall and rise. Buyers of Toyota cars and trucks will enjoy deep discounts this spring. But the stumbling block for me – as a theoretical investor (I don’t actually buy buy shares) and someone who had advised her elderly mother to replace an old Toyota with a new one – is too high. I can’t get over Toyota’s stumbles – whether deliberate or inadvertent. In a world of many choices – of company shares and motor vehicles – there’s little reason to bet small or big on Toyota right now.