Archive for December 29th, 2009

State, Local Govs Under Tax-Receipt Pressures

Posted by Rick Stine on December 29, 2009
Economy, Government, Taxes, Unemployment / 1 Comment

censusFirst, it was Wall Street that got hit hard. Then it moved to corporate America. Unemployment rose and recession set in. The last to get hit in these economic downturns are state and local governments. And there are indications that more is to come on that front.

The U.S. Census Bureau was out with a report today that showed just awful state and local government tax revenues. Click here for the summary report. Individual income tax receipts were down 11.7% in the third quarter from a year ago. General sales tax receipts were down 9%. Corporate income tax receipts were down 18%. Somewhat surprisingly, property tax revenue, the big driver of local government revenues, was up 3.5%. One has to believe, though, that as residential home foreclosures work their way through the system and more commercial real estate problems surface, this revenue source comes under pressure as well.

All of which is to say: we may have avoided a financial meltdown and we may be on our way out of a recession. But state and local governments have some very hard decisions to make. They can’t raise taxes and wil have to cut costs. And that means elimination of popular programs and perhaps even jobs.

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Credit-Card Cos. Still Face Challenges

Posted by Rick Stine on December 29, 2009
Credit Cards, Economy, Investing, Retailing / 1 Comment
Stock performance of Discover (DFS), Capital One (COF) and the DJIA since market lows in March

Stock performance of Discover (DFS), Capital One (COF) and the DJIA since market lows in March

If you believe consumer confidence is returning and that it will translate into consumer spending, one investment play is with credit-card companies. That way, you aren’t making a bet on a particular industry where consumers may spend money. Instead, you are playing the economics of increased credit card usage. The chart above certainly shows that’s what some investors have been thinking. Those are eye-popping gains for two credit-card companies from the market lows in March. And they have significantly outperformed the Dow.

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