Just out today: machinery orders in Japan came in better than expected in February. These are a key gauge of industrial health in the world’s second-biggest economy, and the monthly data has been very, very bad – until now. Orders broke a record four-month stretch of declines, climbing a seasonally adjusted 1.4% in February from the previous month. Economists had forecast a 7.9% decline, DJN reports. Also today, Japan is unveiling another economic stimulus package, and both the machinery orders and the stimulus have given a nice boost to the Nikkei stock index. Over in Korea, the central bank declined to lower interest rates today, signaling to many that it, too, is seeing green shoots of recovery. Among other things, South Korea had its largest monthly trade surplus ($4.6 billion) in March, and in February industrial output rose for a second straight month (up 6.8%.) Korea’s big government bond was oversubscribed by far and priced overnight, easing concerns about the country’s ability to roll over foreign debts due this year, DJN reports. In Malaysia, industrial output shrank less sharply in February than January and could signal that economy’s manufacturing sector has bottomed out. On the downside, Australian unemployment surged to a five-year high, and as DJN’s James Glynn writes in a “Money Talks” column, the Reserve Bank of Australia may have a bit of room to ease rates – albeit by “tapping” rather than slamming on the breaks as that country’s economy begins solidifying.
Posted by Gabriella Stern
on April 08, 2009
Australia, Credit Markets, Economy, Japan, South Korea, Trade
Australia, Credit Markets, Economy, Japan, South Korea, Trade

April 9, 2009
This is the undershoot-overshoot behavior os business inventories- the oscillations that typically appear when you close a feedback loop with measurement delay. Paul Krugman explained it in his blog yesterday, in the convoluted manner of an economist. Actually for a social scientist his explanations are quite clear.