Market Talk

I just feel like we're not going anywhere, you know what I mean?

US stocks enjoying a fierce run-up on the heels of yesterday’s triple-digit decline, highlighting a theory Todd Harrison pointed to this morning that the market’s initial reaction following a Fed meeting, or in this case testimony, is often the false move.

A slew of corporate earnings and a better-than-expected data on existing home sales are fueling the rally, which recently sent the Dow up 220 at 10340. But a disappointing jobless claims report, which is largely getting overshadowed amid today’s run-up, deserves more attention.

The number of workers filing initial claims for jobless benefits rose 37,000 to 464,000 in the week ended July 17, marking the biggest weekly rise since February.

So much for the recent positive momentum in jobless claims. They had dropped the prior two weeks in a row and hit 429,000, their lowest level since August 2008. But the latest run-up — new filings surging 37,000 marks the biggest weekly rise since February — takes the unemployment measure back above 450,000.

“Even if today’s rise in jobless benefits doesn’t mean much, there’s still the bigger problem that’s plagued this metric all year: It’s going nowhere fast,” James Picerno writes at The Capital Spectator. “As the weeks and months roll by without a material decline in new filings for unemployment insurance, it’s getting tougher to argue that the labor market’s salvation is just around the corner.”

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The Acropolis of New Jersey.

As the Greeks tear themselves apart trying to come to grips with their precarious situation, here in the United States, people are looking at the Argives’ problems and wondering what if any lessons we can draw from their woes.

The general perception seems to be that while the United States and Greece have some things in common, like big deficits, the differences between the countries are so great that there is scant to learn from the Greek crisis. But Greek stories always have something to teach us.

With the Greek prime minister in town last week, the Associated Press set about trying to draw the appropriate lesson for the United States. “Greece is a financial basket case, begging for international help,” Tom Raum  asked. “Is America heading down that same road?”

It’s a valid question. But to get the right answer you need the right comparison. The United States of America is not in the same shape as Greece (although, at the rate it’s going…) But the states that make up the United States? On the state level, Greece’s problems are already here. Much like Greece, much like the federal government, the state governments have racked up huge debts, have resorted to any number of budgetary gimmicks, and now that the economy has turned down, the feta’s really hitting the fan.

What the Greeks are having forced upon them — austerity — states like California and New Jersey are adopting on their own, with oftentimes painful, but necessary, results.

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- How ’bout that? Goldman bows to pay pressure.

- Turbo Tim says TARP extension is needed for successful exit.

- It’s a sad day in the publishing industry. After 125 years, Editor & Publisher will fold. Newsosaur blogger Alan Mutter discusses.

- Paul Krugman puts the “good” jobs report in perspective.

- Expectations for a brief correction in the market are on the rise, yet stocks keep going up.

- One in four children are on food stamps.

- Minyanville’s Todd Harrison discusses being wrong vs. being ear1ly.

- Weekly jobless claims show firing has definitely slowed, but hiring remains in limbo.

- Hey Facebook, Twitter, MySpace…your No. 1 goal – don’t be the next Friendster.

- Recession may mark the end of an era…the US era.

The stock market’s 30% run-up throughout the last two months has been predicated on the fact that the economy has stopped plummeting and is only deteriorating at a slower pace.

But, as WSJ notes, for the road to recovery to continue, the economy will have to show some actual growth for this recent rally to have any legs.

Now, investors are starting to ask for something more. They want signs that actual economic improvement is coming. They didn’t get anything like that last week, and they began selling stocks again.

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