Market Talk

Falling prices aren't the same as sale prices.

Remember that scene in the first “Die Hard” (and the best one (well, the only really good one, I mean, the others are passable, except for that fourth one, but really, the first is a top-rate action movie, the others are just rehashed leftovers,) where John McClane throws the dead terrorist out of the window and the body plops down on the hood of the police cruiser that’s passing by, and McClane leans out the window, already a dirty, bloody mess with a machine gun in his hands, and screams “Welcome to the party, pal!”

That was the first thing that came into my head when I saw this Phil Izzo story (and that probably says something about me, but let’s leave that for some other blog) hit the Tape.

It appears that Wall Street economists, by a two-to-one margin, now believe that deflation is a bigger threat than inflation. So, for all the jawboning the Fed’s been doing about inflation, a con game they are likely to maintain this afternoon, Wall Street’s not buying it anymore.

A Wall Street Journal survey found that by a two-to-one margin Wall Street economists see deflation as a bigger threat to the U.S. economy over the next three years than inflation.

“Deflation is dangerously close,” said David Resler of Nomura Securities, one of 53 economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal. Among economists who answered the question, nearly two-thirds said that deflation poses the bigger risk to the economy over the next three years; the remainder said inflation is the bigger threat. That compares to an April survey, when the economists were split 50/50 over whether inflation or disinflation posed the bigger risk over the next year.

I honestly don’t have much new to say about this; well, anything actually. We’ve been banging the drum on this topic for a long time. It’s just sort of, well, satisfying to see Wall Street coming over to our way of thinking. Even if the thoughts themselves are frankly depressing and even frightening. But you’ve got to face up to reality before you can start dealing with the situation.

More and more, I’m becoming convinced that the real harbinger of any recovery and future economic strength will be not only employment growth, but wage growth as well. Now that the great credit-mania has ended, it’s become clear that wage growth in the United States has been lagging for quite some time, and that people who rely mainly on their incomes are struggling.

Rising wages are a sign of strong, sustainable corporate profits, they are a sign of a healthy and growing working class, they are a measure of buying power for those same workers. Unfortunately, we don’t have those signs right now, as Phil Izzo reports over at the Real Time Economics blog:

Even though prices declined last year — down 0.2% from a year earlier as measured by the national price index for personal consumption expenditures — incomes fell even more. On average, personal income dropped 1.8% in 2009, following a 2.7% increase in 2007. Income declined in 223 metro areas last year, increased in 134 and was unchanged in nine regions.

In areas that saw gains, most of the increases came from the government in one way or another. In 77 of the 134 regions that saw incomes increase, the growth came from transfer receipts such as unemployment benefits or Social Security payments. In most of the remaining 57 metro areas, the gains were concentrated in the government sector, the Commerce Department said, including strong growth in military earnings.

You can have job growth that comes with falling wages, as in the case of the concessions the UAW made to the Big Three. Sure, there are employed auto workers, but their standard of living is a sharp downgrade from what previous employees experienced.

It’s not just wage growth, either. It’s got to be wage growth that outruns inflation, otherwise we’re just spinning our wheels or losing ground.