Market Talk

US stocks rise, even after Portugal comes out and says it’ll be the third European nation to seek an international bailout.

DJIA rises 33 (0.3%) to 12427; yes, it’s another fresh multi-year high, S&P 500 gains 3 (0.2%) to 1336, Nasdaq Comp adds 9 (0.3%) to 2799.82. Volume’s a bit weak.

There wasn’t much in the way of hard news most of the day, but that serves bulls just fine. They’re buying just about everything. Gold hits a fresh record. Crude hits a fresh multi-year high. Even cotton’s rebounded.

Market shows little initial reaction to Portugal’s admission that it will follow Greece and Ireland in seeking a bailout. It can’t be a good thing that a third European nation is seeking international help because it can’t handle its problems on its own. But the even bigger issue is that everybody, and we mean ev-ree-bo-dee, is already looking past Portugal to its neighbor on the Iberian Peninsula — Spain.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Comp continues to flirt with the 2800 level. Our colleague, Tomi Kilgore, penned the following missive:

The fifth time wasn’t the charm for the Nasdaq Composite. Including today, the index has traded above 2800 intraday for the third time in four sessions, and the fifth time since Feb. 22, without closing above it. The Nasdaq ended up 8.63 at 2799.82, off an intraday high of 2815.55. Even if 2800 is cleared, bulls have to contend with nearby resistance within the gap in the charts between the Feb. 18 low and the Feb. 22 high (2808-2824), followed by the Feb. 18 high of 2840.41. Meanwhile, support starts at 2750-2765, which includes the gap between the March 29 high and March 30 low and the 50-day moving average.

US stocks mixed, with banks dragging down blue chips, even as Fed Chairman Bernanke all but promises the central bank will start buying up bonds very soon, but tech shares providing lift to the Nasdaq Comp.

DJIA falls 32 (0.3%) to 11063, led down by JPMorgan, BofA and GE (Boeing was in there, too.) S&P 500 adds 2 to 1176. Nasdaq Comp rises 33 (1.4%) to 2469, led by Google and its strong earnings report. Banks fall again amid growing foreclosure fiasco; GE falls as well after weak earnings report. The dollar actually rose today, after three straight down days. Treasurys fall, with the 10-year yield rising to 2.57%.

In a speech short on specifics, Bernanke makes case for Fed “action.” Without saying it specifically, the market tea leaves read it, and you can bet this is what he wanted them to read, that the Fed’s going to announce a new program of bond buying after its early November meeting. It’s going to some kind of incremental approach, some set dollar amount’s worth of bonds every month, rather than announcing one big lump sum. (Forget the question of whether or not it’ll actually, you know, work; we’re way past that debate.)

Of course, if you really want to dive down this rabbit hole, look at it this way. The market is expecting the Fed to say it’ll buy, say $100 billion worth of bonds every month until it’s satisfied it’s turned the economy around (that could add up, by the way.) But what it the Fed surprises people and says, hey, we’re gonna commit to $1 trillion right now. Whoo-wee, we’ll rally, boys and girls, you can bet your bottom dollar. That’s not even figuring in the midterms.

US stocks rise, as this morning’s data batch presents a mixed picture, and a key Fed official signals QE2 is on the way. Maybe. Sort of. It depends.

DJIA rises 42 to 10830, still down about 0.3% on the week. That snaps a four-week winning streak. S&P 500 gains 5 to 1146 (the 1150 level remains an important headwind here; the day’s high was 1150.30,) Nasdaq Comp adds 2 to 2371. It’s another good day for the cool kids, of course. Euro pierces $1.37 and is approaching $1.38. Gold hits another record, it’s set one in 11 of the past 14 sessions, currently at $1.318.70. Treasurys ease, but the 10-year yield is still at only 2.51%.

This morning’s data come in “better than expected,” but the picture they paint is decidedly mixed. ISM manufacturing index, for example, eases, with new orders a notable slider. We previously explained what we think of the income report.

So when NY Fed’s William Dudley terms the recovery “wholly unsatisfactory,” you know he’s not just whistling Dixie.

Elsewhere, the SEC and CFTC released their much-ballyhooed flash-crash report. The big takeaway? The bots did it. Thanks for sharing.

US stocks close down around the lows they first hit this morning, as the latest batch of economic news on both sides of the Atlantic sows doubt about the recovery.

European economic data jolt the risk trade early, before the start of trading over here. Weekly jobless claims here rise to 465,000, and because of that, odds are it’s going to be another glum September jobs report. Existing home sales rise, but given last month’s record plunge, it’s cold comfort. The housing market still remains mired deep in its historic slump.

DJIA falls 77 to 10662, S&P 500 loses 9 to 1125, Nasdaq Comp eases 7 to 2327. Dow’s now on a little two-day losing streak. S&P falls back under key 1130 level. NYSE volume’s a little better than it was yesterday, but at 3.8B shares traded, still under even the 4B mark, that’s still light compared to what might be considered a “normal” market.

Gold hits another nominal record close at $1,294; still under $1,300 though.The 10-year yield actually backed up to 2.55%, after threatening to fall under 2.50%.

It was an interesting trading session for stocks, and followed a trend we’ve been noticing lately. To wit, the market sold off in the first hour, spent the rest of the day working off those losses, only to slide in the last hour back near the lows. In other words, all the action, the defining action at least, took place in the first and last hour. We’ve seen this a number of times, with prices moving in both directions. Call it the rise of the bots.

US stocks slide modestly, as a number of other asset classes rise in response to the likelihood of the Fed unleashing another big round of bond-buying and liquidity flooding, and the implications for the dollar that come with it.

DJIA slips 22 to 10739, S&P 500 loses 6 (0.5%) to 1134, Nasdaq Comp drops 15 (0.6%) to 2335. But again, the real action’s outside the equities pits. Dollar drops against, well, everything. Gold nears $1,300/ounce, two-year yield hits a record low. The dollar-debasement trade, as noted elsewhere, is alive and well.

If the Fed’s primary fear is deflation, what’s that say about the real state of the economy? Nothing good, Mouseketeers, nothing good at all. Take a look at General Mills’ earnings today. The company, which makes products we all know, saw sales creep higher, and is getting squeezed between rising commodity costs and its inability to pass those costs along.

New York Times issued a warning about its revenue.

Adobe got killed on its outlook.

The FHFA said home prices are down 3.3% from a year ago. Mind you, before the housing crash, it was accepted as a fact of life that prices never fell. Now a drop like that elicits a shrug.

Keep an eye out tomorrow for the number of people falling off the emergency unemployment claims rolls, when the Labor Department reports jobless claims. It’s far from clear how many of them are finding jobs and how many are falling into oblivion, and how many of the ones finding jobs are finding good ones, ones that pay living wages. After all, these days it’s debatable whether even $250,000 constitutes wealthy (at least, it is if you live on the coasts.)

Now, what’s that tell you?

US stocks essentially flat today, capping off a generally good week for equities.

DJIA adds 13 to 10608 and S&P 500 gains 1 to 1126, both up roughly 1.4% on the week; Nasdaq Comp rises 12 (0.5%) to 2316. Volume’s better, but considering it was a quadruple witching day, still weak. Gold hits yet another record high, pricing as high as $1,284.

A troika of reports this morning — consumer prices, real earnings and consumer sentiment — paint a troubling picture of what’s going on with John Q. Public.

This is definitely a risk on/risk off market. US stocks fall as the risk trade abruptly turns off, after the old fears over Europe reignite.

DJIA loses 107 (1%) to 10341, S&P 500 falls 13 (1.2%) to 1092, Nasdaq Comp drops 25 (1.1%) to 2209. NYSE volume is very low, so it’s hard to draw any real conclusions. But while stocks fall, gold hits fresh record high. The euro fell almost a whole two cents. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.61%. That all ought to tell you something.

WSJ story says European banks hid sovereign-debt risk from stress tests, but who really bought those tests in the first place? Not us. Report that German manufacturing orders slipped didn’t help matters. But what really should be catching your eye is the rising costs of credit protection for both public and private debt in Europe. In some cases, they’ve gone back to the pre-bailout levels. Ireland’s hitting up its neighbors for “support” as the state-owned Anglo Irish Bank craters (I love how absolutely everybody describes the bank as “troubled.”

US stocks rally again, extending equities’ winning streak, after August jobs report comes in better than feared.

DJIA jumps 128 (1.2%) to 10448, its fourth consecutive gain. Those gains, incidentally, almost totally wiped out August’s loss. S&P 500 rises 14 (1.3%) to 1105, surging sharply, but getting capped around the 100-day moving average. Nasdaq Comp gains 34 (1.5%) to 2234. NYSE volume at 3.5B shares traded is low, but that should be expected ahead of a the three-day Labor Day weekend.

It’s the best three-day showing to open a month since March 2009, a month that lives warmly in many a bull’s heart. Whether the rest of September will replicate March ’09 remains to be seen, but traders are going to at least have a nice holiday weekend to savor it.

Still, stocks haven’t broken out of their trading range, yet. The risk trade got a big boost this week, with a few data points coming in better than expected. Whether that’s a blip or some kind of near-term bottom is the question. In all the euphoria, the stock market almost completely ignored this morning’s ISM services index, which showed a rather distressing slide and on which John has a separate post.

Don’t forget, Mouseketeers, there’s a big difference between better than expected and good. This morning’s jobs report was not good. It was better than expected. The stock market may not care about that difference, but you should.

US stocks burst out of the gate in September, with the DJIA posting its best one-day gain since early July after a key gauge of the manufacturing sector shows surprising strength.

DJIA surges 255 (2.5%) to 10269, its biggest one-day gain percentage-wise since July 7. S&P 500 jumps 31 (3%) to 1080, Nasdaq Comp rises 63 (3%) to 2177. NYSE volume is 4.5B shares traded, not bad volume for a session a couple days ahead of Labor Day.

Stocks rose sharply early, as traders were apparently emboldened after the S&P held the 1040 level again yesterday. But the ISM reading, coming in not just better-than-expected but actually better, was like rocket fuel. September has a reputation for being a bad month for stocks, but it also often starts off well. It did today.

Now, that lede (newspaper jargon for “lead,” the top of the story, not  be confused with lead, the material they used to use to fill the letter blocks when printing the paper,) I wrote is without a doubt a concise, accurate assessment of today’s session, if I do say so myself. However, I find it hard to believe this rally was built on anything more lasting that Friday’s rally, which had just about completely melted away by yesterday’s closing bell.

Briefly, let’s look at some of the news today. There was that Chinese PMI story. China’s official PMI rose to 51.7 from 51.2. That sparked the global stocks rally. Now, that’s a very minor move, one that still leaves the index too close to the 50 level for comfort in a diffusion index that measures not actual change but the rate of change.

Still, with the proverbial new money pouring into the market, that was enough to get things going. The market totally ignored a trio of private-sector takes on the jobs market, the ADP, TrimTabs and Challenger Grey reports. ADP said private-sector jobs fell 10,000, TrimTabs said it was down 65,000. The Challenger report was actually bullish, they said job cuts fell to a decade low. Still, those first two do not presage a good number Friday when the BLS reports the nonfarm payrolls. But no matter, because the ISM’s take on US manufacturing came in at 56.3, up from 55.5, when it was expected to slide to 52.

What makes it so surprising is that absolutely everybody expected it to fall, given that the regional Fed surveys have been uniformly depressing. So, is the ISM number a one-off or some counter-trend? I just don’t know yet, but I’m very suspicious of the ISM number. It just doesn’t fit in with anything else we’ve been seeing.

Lastly, we’ll leave you with this, a tidbit that John pointed out to me just now. As bad as August was for stocks, May was that much worse, with the DJIA losing better than 8%. What’d the Dow do on the first trading day in May? It rose, about 143 points. Over the next four sessions, it lost 771 points, a time frame that included the now-infamous Flash Crash.

US stocks rally sharply, after the Fed chairman pledges to do “whatever it takes” to pull the economy out of any tailspin, which is a nice reassurance since that’s exactly where the economy seems to be headed.

DJIA surges 165 (1.7%) to 10151; even with the rally, the index lost 0.6% on the week. S&P 500 jumps 17 (1.7%) to 1065, importantly after bouncing hard off support at 1040 – which may point to short covering. Nasdaq Comp gains 35 (1.7%) to 2154.

Stocks rally even after 2Q GDP gets revised down to 1.6% – and the 3Q isn’t looking so hot either, by the way. By now, you know the parade of bad news that was ignored today: Intel cut its 3Q revenue outlook, consumer confidence slipped, Boeing delayed the Dreamliner again, the ECRI’s weekly leading index showed no improvement and remains mired at recessionary levels.

The market is apparently taking Fed Chairman Bernanke at his word that he will do “whatever it takes” to pull the economy out of any tailspin – the infamous Bernanke (nee Greenspan) put. This is giving a big boost to the risk trade – heck Boeing was the Dow’s third-best component today, after risk-trade darling Caterpillar and IBM.

So, the market rallied either because of a massive short-covering surge, a belief in the Fed’s ability to arrest the economy’s slide, we’ll be polite and refrain from calling it a misguided belief, or the market just has absolutely no idea what’s going on. We’d put our money on either number one or number two, but neither is particularly inspiring.