Market Talk

- More than 80% of companies that reported earnings have topped analysts’ estimates. But don’t get too giddy. “After all, ‘better than expected’ could simply reflect the low level of the underlying estimates and the strength of the actual data,” Pragmatic Capitalism says.

- Is fresh, massive stimulus via QE2 really necessary? The Reformed Broker blogger Josh Brown isn’t so sure. He notes companies continue to report decent earnings. And more disturbing is the fact that “outside of home prices, inflation is becoming more and more of a reality…The propping up of the dead and the dying via federal spending and zero percent rates is not warranted with markets and prices rebounding elsewhere.”

- On the other hand, the risks of not engaging in QE2 are too great, James Picerno writes at The Capital Spectator. “Calling on the Fed to stand pat risks repeating the mistakes of monetary history,” he says. “We have to deal with the pressing threats as they arrive, and worrying about runaway inflation today is
premature, and perhaps more than a little dangerous. The day for fighting that battle will come. But not now.”

- Credit Suisse notes much of the earnings season move for equities might be over, despite the fact that there’s plenty of reports still to come. “Our Portfolio Strategy team finds the bulk of the impact of earnings on market performance seems to occur in the first two weeks of earnings season, which ends today,” firm says, according to MarketBeat.

- As the reviews pour in regarding Windows Phone 7 devices, so far so good for Microsoft (MSFT). NYT’s Bits blog posts a roundup of reviews. The new lineup of phones are getting “overwhelmingly positive reactions,” blog says. “It’s still unclear if this will translate into sales or make it possible to attract customers away from existing platforms.”

- Hulu’s considering slashing price of Hulu Plus — its subscription service still in beta mode — to $4.95 per month from $9.95, MediaMemo blogger Peter Kafka reports, citing sources.

- Latest iPad rival hits the market. H-P releases its $800 touchscreen tablet computer.

- FCC weighs in on the Cablevision/News Corp dispute over Fox.

- Deal Journal’s Shira Ovide looks at the best and worst deal Apple ever made.

- WSJ profiles the state of Jay-Z’s empire, the rap monger who’s worth an estimated $450 million.

- “The global financial system continues to be unsound in the same way that a Ponzi scheme is unsound,” John Hussman writes. “There are not enough cash flows to ultimately service the face value of all the existing obligations over time.”

- On an essentially flat day yesterday, CBOE’s VIX volatility index fell 8.5% to 18.96, lowest levels since April. “If there’s one point I would emphasize when VIX watching, it’s to pay the most attention when it does something unusual,” says Adam Warner, as VIX is exhibiting “clear signs of complacency.”

- Growth of Chinese and Brazilian credit-card balances from 2008 to 2009 “can be a source of either encouragement or worry — or both,” FT’s Alphaville says. “A sustained run-up in debt can be ultimately destabilizing,” blog notes. “So can a burst of capital inflows. And this is all playing out rather quickly against a background of currency wars, central bank interventions, and expected quantitative easing in the US.”

- Remember when the critics came out in droves when Apple (AAPL) released its first versions of iOS without cut-and-paste functionality? “It’s hard to imagine any company launching a new mobile OS would take a similar tack,” John Paczkowski writes. “Yet that’s exactly what Microsoft has done with Windows Phone 7, which will arrive at market next month without that feature.”

- Amazon’s (AMZN) attempting to carve a niche market for Kindle, with plan to launch “Kindle Singles” — essentially works that may be longer than a magazine article but shorter than typical books. MediaMemo blogger Peter Kafka raises some obvious questions: What will pricing look like? How will wholesale pricing work? And is this directed at conventional publishers, or self-published by the authors? AMZN didn’t immediately comment to Kafka.

- Windows Phone 7 may be Microsoft’s (MSFT) best chance at making a serious dent in the smartphone market, Ryan Kim writes at GigaOm. “They’ve done a good job creating something that looks and feels distinct,” he says. “We still need to put the phones through their paces but the basic building blocks are there.”

- Small business optimism barely nudged higher in September, but it still remains at recessionary levels. Poor sales remain the biggest hurdle for small businesses during this sluggish recovery. “Usually small business owners complain about taxes and regulations (that usually means business is good),” Calculated Risk says. “But now their self reported biggest problem is lack of demand.”

- Not only are small businesses not interested in getting more financing, but they increasingly think financing conditions will worsen from current levels, writes FT’s Alphaville, based on NFIB’s small business survey for September. “Maybe investors are front-running the Fed, but small businesses seem unconvinced that further easing will actually loosen credit.”

- Wall Street pay is on pace to break a record high for a second straight year, WSJ reports.

- So far so good. Intel earnings beat expectations. And, as MarketBeat notes, the deets beyond the headline numbers also look pretty solid.

- Oracle (ORCL) CEO Larry Ellison wasted no time slamming H-P’s (HPQ) hiring last week of former SAP chief Leo Apotheker as new CEO. “I’m speechless,” he tells WSJ late Friday. “H-P had several good internal candidates…but instead they pick a guy who was recently fired because he did such a bad job of running SAP.” Harsh, to say the least, though not particularly out of character for Ellison, Digital Daily blogger John Paczkowski says.

- Goldman gets harsh on Microsoft (MSFT) and offers three strategies it should employ to help boost shares. Firm calls for huge dividend increase, a “coherent consumer strategy” and MSFT to become the global leader in cloud computing. “Oh, that’s all?” Paul Kedrosky quips. “Pulling this off would be like Microsoft learning Geller-ian magic tricks, the equivalent of being able to bend spoons with its brain.”

- Another economic downturn is “not only a possibility but a likelihood,” John Hussman says. “A significant correction in valuations and resolution of the growing backlog of delinquent debt may finally restore strong ‘investment merit’ to the US stock market, but only after a greater amount of pain and adjustment than most investors seem to anticipate.”

- Executive departures at Yahoo has put more scrutiny on CEO Carol Bartz, who she still has to convince Wall Street she has what it takes to turnaround the struggling Internet giant. But YHOO’s 3Q report, scheduled for Oct. 19, will provide clues into how she’s really doing, Kara Swisher notes. And as executive departures “garner a lot of attention,” Yahoo’s results are “the most important of all to watch,” she says.

- With the September jobs report due at the end of the week, Calculated Risk says keep an eye on the participation rate. Right now, it sits at a “very low” 64.7%. “A future decline would be considered bad employment news (even if the unemployment rate declined slightly),” blog says. “An increase in the participation rate, combined with a weak labor market, could lead to a jump in the unemployment rate. This is something to watch closely.”

- Another unsavory wrinkle in the US foreclosure epidemic as some big banks (BofA, JPMorgan, Ally’s GMAC) suspend foreclosure activity across close to half the nation amid reports of seriously flawed paperwork. Seems “the real estate/financing industry has brought the same machine-like technical prowess that they used to automate the process of underwriting mortgages to a similar automated foreclosure process,” Big Picture blogger Barry Ritholtz notes. “Is it any surprise that the results of this are similarly disastrous?”

- The bulls, like John Paulson, looked pretty smart in September.

- “But even if we agree that the Fed could depress long-term yields with these kinds of measures, it is a separate question as to whether it should,” James Hamilton says. “I remain of the opinion that while the Fed is understandably reluctant to embrace QE2, it may have little other choice.”

- Twitter promotes chief operating officer, Dick Costolo, to CEO amid company’s scramble to build its advertising business. He succeeds Evan Williams.

- New York Observer wants Dealbreaker, but Bess Levin wants her big pay day. Good for her, she deserves it. Now, Barry Ritholtz hopes to get in on the action.

US stocks fall broadly for the third time in the last four sessions as investors tread cautiously ahead of earnings season and jobs data due at week’s end.

Dow Jones Industrial Average drops 78 (0.7%) to 10751, its biggest drop since Sept. 7. Nasdaq Comp falls 26 (1.1%) to 2345 and S&P 500 falls 9 (0.8%) to 1137. S&P 500 again fails to crack 1150 early in session and now focus shifts to 1130, which acted as support for the broad index.

Dollar strengthens modestly against both euro and yen, Treasurys rise.

AmEx drops 6.5% after DOJ’s civil lawsuit. Microsoft falls 1.9% after Goldman downgrade. But spotlight’s still on upcoming earnings season, which kicks off with Alcoa’s report Thursday, as well as Friday’s jobs report.

- Deal-making has been coming back, with another spate of deals and potential deals announced yesterday, but with one notable difference, John Curran writes at Time’s Curious Capitalist blog. “The big difference is, this merger-fest probably won’t result in higher stock prices.”

- “The Fed may need to do something to shock markets into believing that it is serious about reversing the decline in (inflation) expectations,” Ryan Avent notes at The Economist’s Free Exchange blog. “Without a firm commitment to an eye-popping number, markets may simply believe that the Fed will pull the plug on the purchases before the job is done — a belief that will undermine the impact of the purchases.”

- “What’s the bear case on QE2?” ponders Minyanville’s Todd Harrison. “Think Rocky Balboa at the end of the first movie; there ain’t gonna be no rematch, and there ain’t gonna be no QE3,” Harrison notes. “That’s the risk for policymakers. It’s the next to last bullet (and you know where the last one is pointed).”

- Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) maintains “emulating Apple is not part of our strategy,” but it wouldn’t hurt H-P to focus on excellence in user experience, Digital Daily blogger John Paczkowski says. “Because if it nails that and then ‘doubles down’ on webOS as promised, we could see some very interesting things coming out of H-P in the months ahead.”

- Apple shares dropped as much as 5.6% Tuesday before closing down 1.5%. Rumors swirled in the morning that Apple COO Tim Cook could become the new Hewlett-Packard chief. But that rumor was quickly dismissed.

- CNet’s Software Interrupted blog points out that Google (GOOG) has acquired 23 companies so far this year, compared with none for Microsoft (MSFT). That means MSFT, already fighting what many consider a losing battle in search, is also losing out in top start-up technologies like mobile and social networking, as well as foregoing some of the best talent available.

- To the delight of nerds across the country, it turns out that Apple’s (AAPL) new Apple TV can be hacked just like an iPhone, iPad and iPod Touch, a popular group of hackers announced last night on their blog. The group, known as the “Dev-Team,” have for the past few years been finding ways to run unauthorized software on AAPL’s popular mobile devices.

- The churn among Yahoo’s (YHOO) executive ranks continues, as Jimmy Pitaro, VP of Media, is expected to leave the company soon, reports All Things D blogger Kara Swisher. “Adding Pitaro to the pile will only increase pressure on [CEO Carol] Bartz…to show investors that Yahoo has a clear plan amidst the executive turmoil.”

- AOL goes on a spending spree, scooping up TechCrunch, one of the most influential blogs in Silicon Valley, as well as Web video-syndication company 5min Media.

- Two wins later, Jason Gay says its time for NY Jets QB Mark Sanchez to give up his blanky.

- With today marking the anniversary of Lehman’s bankruptcy filing, the trajectory of the stock market during the past two years has been one wild ride. Bespoke Investment Group notes consumer discretionary and technology are the only two sectors trading above pre-Lehman levels. And while financials have rallied 140% off March 2009 bottom, they still need to gain another 43% “before they can put the pain of the financial crisis behind them,” firm says. Overall, S&P 500 remains 12% lower than it was two years ago.

- “Businesses aren’t hiring because of poor sales, period, end of story,” Paul Krugman writes on his blog. “And the best thing government could do to help business would be to spend more, increasing demand. The fact that it’s not going to happen doesn’t change the fact that it’s the simple truth.”

- Twitter’s revamped website has one main focus: Encourage users to spend more time on Twitter.com where the company will show more adds, MediaMemo blogger Peter Kafka says. But Twitter executives say the changes reflect how they want the site to be viewed as a “consumption environment.” “Which is another way of saying that Twitter is a media company,” Kafka adds. “It gives you cool stuff to look at, you pay attention to what it shows you, and it rents out some of your attention to advertisers.”

- Facebook and Microsoft (MSFT) are deep in talks about significantly expanding the search relationship the companies have shared for many years, Kara Swisher reports at All Things D. Broader agreement could include Bing mining anonymized data of consumer usage from Facebook’s “Like” buttons. “Such information might yield a treasure trove of insight for both search users and advertisers.

- Cisco (CSCO) announcing it will begin paying a dividend garnered much positive attention, which surprised Chad Brand, founder and president of Peridot Capita, who called it “unimpressive and unimportant.” “For the investment strategists who claim that income-oriented investors will now all of the sudden flock to Cisco shares, they are clearly overstating the situation,” he writes.

- Eli Lilly (LLY) hops into social media pond, launching corporate blog called LillyPad and accompanying Twitter feed. LLY says blog will address public policy issues, corporate responsibility and advocacy efforts. LLY joins other drug makers including J&J (JNJ) and Glaxo (GSK) that have started corporate blogs. Drug companies have approached social media gingerly, though, because they face strict regulations about what they can say about their drugs.

- Google’s (GOOG) long-awaited music service may soon be a reality, reports music website Billboard. Billboard claims GOOG is circulating a proposal to record labels touting an iTunes-esque music service. Key features apparently include a $25-a-year subscription fee, cloud-based storage and a social networking feature. Unlike Apple’s (AAPL) iTunes, which only offers users short previews of tracks prior to purchase, GOOG apparently wants to offer one full-track stream per song for free.

- Mike Shedlock is skeptical of rebounding retail sales. “I don’t buy it. If retail sales were back to within 4.3% of the pre-recession peak, sales tax collections would be back towards the pre-recession peak, if not exceeding the pre-recession peak.”

- Cash for clunkers revisited. And the verdict? It was one big clunker.

- Details emerge of Horace Mann Educators (HMN) CEO’s DUI arrest. “The chief executive of a midsize insurance company who is in a county jail in Florida on drunken driving charges had “difficulty standing,” was “swaying in all directions” and later fell to the ground as police investigated the May 29 car crash that led to his arrest, according to police records,” WSJ reports.

- AIG and Treasury reportedly discussing an accelerated sale of the government’s stake. WSJ reports Treasury’s likely to convert $49B in AIG preferred shares to common and gradually sell its stake.

- “In case you lost track of this sorry affair, AIG, the biggest ward of the state in human history, continues to get the kid glove treatment,” Yves Smith writes at naked capitalism. “Funny, isn’t it, how creative and accommodating the Treasury can be when dealing with large distressed firms, and its skill seems to evaporate when contending with underwater homeowners.”

- This is not a typical stock picker’s market. Far from it. Since the May 6 “flash crash,” correlation of S&P 500 stocks to the overall index has reached its highest level since the 1987 crash. “The stock market has turned into a schizophrenic herd of sheep,” the Pragmatic Capitalism blog says. “Currently, the herd is grazing happily with not a care in the world. But don’t be fooled — when something spooks them you’ll get trampled if you don’t run with them.”

- Retail sales rise for second straight month and the 0.4% rise in August is the highest percentage gain since March. “If we look at the monthly trend of late, there’s an upside bias,” James Picerno writes at The Capital Spectator. “It’s hardly definitive or strong enough to close the book on worries, but considering what might have been it’s okay and more than welcome.”

- Microsoft’s (MSFT) Bing has overtaken Yahoo (YHOO) as the No. 2 search engine in the US, at least according to Nielsen’s August report. Firm says Bing had 13.9% search share last month, compared to Yahoo’s 13.1%. This will “will surely cause a firestorm of controversy in the search arena today,” Kara Swisher says at All Things D. Regardless, Google (GOOG) still dominates as it holds 65.8% of search, up 0.9% month-over-month and 0.5% from a year earlier.

- The outcome from Basel III has been critiqued left and right, but Reuters blogger Felix Salmon finds some positives, calling Basel III a “quiet victory” and saying the banking restraints are fairly constructive. “The Basel committees did a masterful job of depoliticizing the process as much as possible,” he says. “If politicians and the media had got involved, that might have made the process more democratic, but it would also have made it much more chaotic and quite possibly would have derailed any chance of an agreement at all.”

- Couch potatoes rejoice! Google TV, the new Internet television product Google (GOOG) is rolling out, will hit stores in the middle of October, possibly on Oct. 17, Engadget reports. Citing an internal memo from Best Buy (BBY), the blog says BBY had originally planned to begin selling Google TV on Oct. 3 but the launch has been pushed back by two weeks.

- Investors who try to time the market may be better off sticking with a buy-and-hold strategy. Barry Ritholtz posts a chart at The Big Picture looking at how investors would do if they bought the S&P 500 in 1993 and how their performance would be dictated if they missed the 10 best days or avoided the 10 worst days.

- Rimarkable blog wonders why the BlackBerry Curve 3G doesn’t run on BlackBerry 6 out of the box. Research In Motion (RIMM) says BlackBerry 6 will be available for the Curve 3G upon network certification in the coming months. And RIMM notes the device, which will sell initially through Verizon Wireless, is BlackBerry 6 ready. But for now, it will run on BlackBerry 5, prompting Rimarkable to wonder why RIM would release a device with an “old deprecated OS” a month after the debut of its next-generation operating system.

- Rafael Nadal finally solves New York. Congrats Rafa.

- Jobless claims rising 2,000 is a relatively minor change. “The bigger problem is the trend,” James Picerno says at The Capital Spectator, noting claims have jumped 13% since bottoming in mid-July. “For months, it was treading water. That was bad enough. But now it’s rising, raising fears that it could go higher still.”

- Deflation is “overblown fear” and is unlikely for three reasons, writes blogger and MIT professor Simon Johnson.

- Appears the stock market has finally awoken to poor recent economic news. And Fed saying it won’t shrink its balance sheet isn’t generating much confidence. “The Fed seems to be exhibiting a pretty bad case of ‘if all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail’ syndrome, particularly when it has (or perhaps more accurately, had) other tools at its disposal,” Yves Smith says.

- Reuters blogger Felix Salmon wonders if the “twitchy, volatile” stock market is still a worthwhile long-term investment, especially if long-term volatility continues increasing.

- Yesterday’s steep selloff and today’s drop show the “sharp risk-on/risk-off swings in markets are to be expected given the reality of today’s macro context,” PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian writes.

- Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner recently said surging imports “reflect healthy and growing American demand.” So much for that optimism, especially in the wake of yesterday’s trade deficit report. “Combined trends in exports and imports are simply not supportive of economic growth,” Tim Duy writes at Economist’s View. “And, given the current state of the global financial architecture, where the US is expected to be the repository of global savings, it is difficult to see how the external sector contributes positively to the recovery.”

- Microsoft (MSFT), which lately has been knocked for lacking a strong consumer strategy, is launching a studio to develop games for mobile phones. The idea, it appears, is to promote use of the Windows Phone operating system.

- The latest on the rumor mill regarding a Verizon Wireless iPhone comes from Daring Fireball blogger John Gruber, who says Apple (AAPL) is taking part in advanced testing of a CDMA version of iPhone, the type compatible with VZ’s wireless network. “The drumbeat of reports pointing to an impending Verzion iPhone launch is getting louder,” MediaMemo blogger Peter Kafka says. “Which doesn’t mean that it’s true. Just that there’s a lot of drumming going on.”

- With so much information online, it’s easy to read something one day and forget where you’ve seen it the next. But there may be a solution. On Thursday, TechCrunch reviewed Sentimnt, a search engine that tackles the question, “Where did I read that?”

- Jetblue (JBLU) finally ends the silent treatment regarding its flight-attendant-turned-wing-nut Steven Slater. “It wouldn’t be fair for us to point out absurdities in other corners of the industry without acknowledging when it’s about us,” JetBlue says on its blog. “While we can’t discuss the details of what is an ongoing investigation, plenty of others have already formed opinions on the matter. Like, the entire Internet.”

- Microsoft (MSFT) insists one of its top priorities is to bring a Windows-based tablet to market sooner than later. Sounds straightforward. The problem is, [Microsoft] doesn’t always manage to do things really right,” Digital Daily blogger John Paczkowski says. “Certainly, it didn’t manage it with Windows Vista. Or Windows Mobile. Or Zune. Or, more recently, Kin. Who’s to say this time will be any different?”

- Tough to get true read on what’s happening in the stock market these days. “The cross-currents lately are absolutely cartoonish — back-to-back-to-back triple digit rallies while each morning we are treated to fresh evidence of ‘Slouching Housing, Hidden Consumer,’” Joshua Brown writes at The Reformed Broker.

- Hank Paulson says government policies promoting homeownership should be blamed as a major cause of the financial crisis, but FusionIQ CEO Barry Ritholtz disagrees, saying the former Treasury secretary ignores facts and is rewriting history. “His commentary is thinly veiled attempt to rewrite what actually occurred, and to shift his own sad role from conductor of the theft, to hapless victim of long standing government policy. If this exercise wasn’t such a transparent attempt at self-exoneration, it would be amusing.”

- Facebook isn’t planning to go public until 2012, Bloomberg reports. “That certainly sounds plausible,” MediaMemo blogger Peter Kafka says, especially considering Facebook likely doesn’t need to raise cash for operations. And if Facebook doesn’t IPO anytime soon, expect social games giant Zynga to face less pressure to go public too.

- “There is good news and bad news,” Ryan Avent writes at Economist’s Free Exchange blog, regarding 2Q GDP report. “Underlying growth looks quite weak, and in quarters to come the contribution from both government and inventory shifts will fall, or turn negative. All indicators suggest that second half growth will be no faster than first half growth.”

- GDP growth rate of only 2.4% isn’t nearly enough for the economy to properly recovery. “This shows clearly that Congress and the Fed should have taken a more aggressive posture already, not doing so was a mistake, and it’s a clear signal that the economy still needs more help,” Mark Thoma writes at MoneyWatch.

- But NYT’s Floyd Norris still thinks the recovery will pick up steam in near future. He notes this was third-straight quarter in which private sector investment rose at an annual rate of more than 25%. “The last time that figure rose as rapidly was in 1984, in the midst of a very strong recovery,” Norris says. “To be sure, private investment is coming off a very depressed level. But it is worth recalling that 1984′s recovery was also widely doubted.”

- As the Fed grapples with methods to support flagging economic growth, Monument Securities economist Stephen Lewis says (via Alphaville) that central bankers “seem close to recognizing” that their actions don’t determine the economy’s performance. “They can no longer demonstrate, or credibly claim, the omnipotence attributed to them by credulous markets in the era of the Greenspan cult.”

- Slate Group, the Washington Post’s (WPO) online unit, is shutting The Big Money, a business site it launched in September 2008, Kafka reports. “The problem, in a nutshell, is that the site is not pointed toward profitability on a fast enough timetable,” Slate said.

- “The global corporate-bond boom is gathering steam as companies rush to take advantage of some of the lowest borrowing costs in history,” WSJ says.

This is already a bit dated, now that the oh so credible results of the stress tests are out, but here’s this morning’s Markets Hub video. Focus is on earnings from the likes of Microsoft, Amazon, Ford, McDonald’s, Kimberly-Clark and Verizon. We didn’t have the results of the tests when we taped, so we just mentioned it toward the end.

By the by, did’ja get a load of those stress-test results, by the way? Bear Stearns could have passed that test.