Market Talk

- More than 80% of companies that reported earnings have topped analysts’ estimates. But don’t get too giddy. “After all, ‘better than expected’ could simply reflect the low level of the underlying estimates and the strength of the actual data,” Pragmatic Capitalism says.

- Is fresh, massive stimulus via QE2 really necessary? The Reformed Broker blogger Josh Brown isn’t so sure. He notes companies continue to report decent earnings. And more disturbing is the fact that “outside of home prices, inflation is becoming more and more of a reality…The propping up of the dead and the dying via federal spending and zero percent rates is not warranted with markets and prices rebounding elsewhere.”

- On the other hand, the risks of not engaging in QE2 are too great, James Picerno writes at The Capital Spectator. “Calling on the Fed to stand pat risks repeating the mistakes of monetary history,” he says. “We have to deal with the pressing threats as they arrive, and worrying about runaway inflation today is
premature, and perhaps more than a little dangerous. The day for fighting that battle will come. But not now.”

- Credit Suisse notes much of the earnings season move for equities might be over, despite the fact that there’s plenty of reports still to come. “Our Portfolio Strategy team finds the bulk of the impact of earnings on market performance seems to occur in the first two weeks of earnings season, which ends today,” firm says, according to MarketBeat.

- As the reviews pour in regarding Windows Phone 7 devices, so far so good for Microsoft (MSFT). NYT’s Bits blog posts a roundup of reviews. The new lineup of phones are getting “overwhelmingly positive reactions,” blog says. “It’s still unclear if this will translate into sales or make it possible to attract customers away from existing platforms.”

- Hulu’s considering slashing price of Hulu Plus — its subscription service still in beta mode — to $4.95 per month from $9.95, MediaMemo blogger Peter Kafka reports, citing sources.

- Latest iPad rival hits the market. H-P releases its $800 touchscreen tablet computer.

- FCC weighs in on the Cablevision/News Corp dispute over Fox.

- Deal Journal’s Shira Ovide looks at the best and worst deal Apple ever made.

- WSJ profiles the state of Jay-Z’s empire, the rap monger who’s worth an estimated $450 million.

- “The global financial system continues to be unsound in the same way that a Ponzi scheme is unsound,” John Hussman writes. “There are not enough cash flows to ultimately service the face value of all the existing obligations over time.”

- On an essentially flat day yesterday, CBOE’s VIX volatility index fell 8.5% to 18.96, lowest levels since April. “If there’s one point I would emphasize when VIX watching, it’s to pay the most attention when it does something unusual,” says Adam Warner, as VIX is exhibiting “clear signs of complacency.”

- Growth of Chinese and Brazilian credit-card balances from 2008 to 2009 “can be a source of either encouragement or worry — or both,” FT’s Alphaville says. “A sustained run-up in debt can be ultimately destabilizing,” blog notes. “So can a burst of capital inflows. And this is all playing out rather quickly against a background of currency wars, central bank interventions, and expected quantitative easing in the US.”

- Remember when the critics came out in droves when Apple (AAPL) released its first versions of iOS without cut-and-paste functionality? “It’s hard to imagine any company launching a new mobile OS would take a similar tack,” John Paczkowski writes. “Yet that’s exactly what Microsoft has done with Windows Phone 7, which will arrive at market next month without that feature.”

- Amazon’s (AMZN) attempting to carve a niche market for Kindle, with plan to launch “Kindle Singles” — essentially works that may be longer than a magazine article but shorter than typical books. MediaMemo blogger Peter Kafka raises some obvious questions: What will pricing look like? How will wholesale pricing work? And is this directed at conventional publishers, or self-published by the authors? AMZN didn’t immediately comment to Kafka.

- Windows Phone 7 may be Microsoft’s (MSFT) best chance at making a serious dent in the smartphone market, Ryan Kim writes at GigaOm. “They’ve done a good job creating something that looks and feels distinct,” he says. “We still need to put the phones through their paces but the basic building blocks are there.”

- Small business optimism barely nudged higher in September, but it still remains at recessionary levels. Poor sales remain the biggest hurdle for small businesses during this sluggish recovery. “Usually small business owners complain about taxes and regulations (that usually means business is good),” Calculated Risk says. “But now their self reported biggest problem is lack of demand.”

- Not only are small businesses not interested in getting more financing, but they increasingly think financing conditions will worsen from current levels, writes FT’s Alphaville, based on NFIB’s small business survey for September. “Maybe investors are front-running the Fed, but small businesses seem unconvinced that further easing will actually loosen credit.”

- Wall Street pay is on pace to break a record high for a second straight year, WSJ reports.

- So far so good. Intel earnings beat expectations. And, as MarketBeat notes, the deets beyond the headline numbers also look pretty solid.

- The 10-year yield has fallen 40 bps during the past month, James Hamilton notes at Econbrowser. “If you wanted to attribute all of this to expectations of QE2, and if you were assuming that $400 billion in long-term bond purchases could lower the rate about 13 basis points, you might think the market has already discounted some $1.2 trillion in additional large-scale asset purchases,” he says. “All of which raises the interesting possibility that if the Fed were to announce in November another trillion in purchases, nothing would happen, because the market has already discounted it.”

- “The fact that an IMF meeting ended with the participants unable to feign a narrowing of differences on the currency front is further evidence that positions are hardening,” Yves Smith writes at naked capitalism.

- Bank stocks no longer driving this rally. “That old adage of ‘as financials go, so goes the market’ — I don’t think that’s tru this time,” said John Lynch, chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo Funds management Group.

- Next-gen 4G mobile phone systems promise faster speeds and better audio. Various US carriers have already promised to roll the new technology out within the next couple of years, but Apple (AAPL) will wait until the technology is more mature before adding it to the iPhone, according to TechCrunch. Instead, the blog speculates that AAPL will release phones next year that are compatible with many more carrier networks using different technologies.

- The Reformed Broker blogger Josh Brown channels his inner Alanis Morrisette as he discusses Dow 11000. “When I consider the state of the market rally, I can only think to myself, ‘Isn’t it ironic, don’t ya think?’”

- Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster tells Silicon Alley Insider that tablets built with Google’s (GOOG) Android software will provide some “very stiff competition” to Apple’s (AAPL) iPad. While Apple will probably ship about 20M-25M iPads next year, Munster says “ultimately we think that Apple won’t have the majority of the (tablet) market share. It’ll probably be with Android-based tablets.”

- “The biggest problem with TARP is that the other portions of the response were so poorly crafted,” the Economist’s Free Exchange blog says. “And the legacy of that underperformance — a weak American recovery alongside continued wealth on Wall Street — is what continues to give political TARP-bashing its potency.”

- Southwest (LUV) announces it’s ending its eight-year tenure as the “official airline” of the NBA after the two sides couldn’t agree on an extension. Farewell then to Slam Dunk One, a specially painted plane that marked the partnership which is now destined for a new color scheme. “With our tough financial climate and limited resources, we had to make the tough decision to say goodbye to one of our dear friends and partners, and both sides agree — we’ll miss each other!” gushes Southwest’s blog.

- Big Picture blogger Barry Ritholtz says America needs an intervention. “The credit crisis and now foreclosure debacle have revealed to anyone who cares to look what we have sought to ignore: That the past decade has been based on a set of fundamental beliefs that are intrinsically false,” he says. “The sooner we stop kidding ourselves, the sooner we can move forward with more productive honest economic lives.”

- Jets-Vikings: the hyperbole bowl, WSJ’s Jason Gay writes.

- Oracle (ORCL) CEO Larry Ellison wasted no time slamming H-P’s (HPQ) hiring last week of former SAP chief Leo Apotheker as new CEO. “I’m speechless,” he tells WSJ late Friday. “H-P had several good internal candidates…but instead they pick a guy who was recently fired because he did such a bad job of running SAP.” Harsh, to say the least, though not particularly out of character for Ellison, Digital Daily blogger John Paczkowski says.

- Goldman gets harsh on Microsoft (MSFT) and offers three strategies it should employ to help boost shares. Firm calls for huge dividend increase, a “coherent consumer strategy” and MSFT to become the global leader in cloud computing. “Oh, that’s all?” Paul Kedrosky quips. “Pulling this off would be like Microsoft learning Geller-ian magic tricks, the equivalent of being able to bend spoons with its brain.”

- Another economic downturn is “not only a possibility but a likelihood,” John Hussman says. “A significant correction in valuations and resolution of the growing backlog of delinquent debt may finally restore strong ‘investment merit’ to the US stock market, but only after a greater amount of pain and adjustment than most investors seem to anticipate.”

- Executive departures at Yahoo has put more scrutiny on CEO Carol Bartz, who she still has to convince Wall Street she has what it takes to turnaround the struggling Internet giant. But YHOO’s 3Q report, scheduled for Oct. 19, will provide clues into how she’s really doing, Kara Swisher notes. And as executive departures “garner a lot of attention,” Yahoo’s results are “the most important of all to watch,” she says.

- With the September jobs report due at the end of the week, Calculated Risk says keep an eye on the participation rate. Right now, it sits at a “very low” 64.7%. “A future decline would be considered bad employment news (even if the unemployment rate declined slightly),” blog says. “An increase in the participation rate, combined with a weak labor market, could lead to a jump in the unemployment rate. This is something to watch closely.”

- Another unsavory wrinkle in the US foreclosure epidemic as some big banks (BofA, JPMorgan, Ally’s GMAC) suspend foreclosure activity across close to half the nation amid reports of seriously flawed paperwork. Seems “the real estate/financing industry has brought the same machine-like technical prowess that they used to automate the process of underwriting mortgages to a similar automated foreclosure process,” Big Picture blogger Barry Ritholtz notes. “Is it any surprise that the results of this are similarly disastrous?”

- The bulls, like John Paulson, looked pretty smart in September.

- “But even if we agree that the Fed could depress long-term yields with these kinds of measures, it is a separate question as to whether it should,” James Hamilton says. “I remain of the opinion that while the Fed is understandably reluctant to embrace QE2, it may have little other choice.”

- Twitter promotes chief operating officer, Dick Costolo, to CEO amid company’s scramble to build its advertising business. He succeeds Evan Williams.

- New York Observer wants Dealbreaker, but Bess Levin wants her big pay day. Good for her, she deserves it. Now, Barry Ritholtz hopes to get in on the action.

- Facebook and Skype are poised to announce a major partnership that integrates SMS, voice chat and Facebook Connect, Kara Swisher reports at All Things D, . Move is a “big win” for Skype and makes sense for Facebook, especially since it helps its international push and overall goal “to mesh communications and community more tightly together,” Swisher says.

- Some unintended consequences come from the Fed making it clear it won’t abandon its ZIRP policy anytime soon, Yves Smith writes at naked capitalism. “I’d feel a lot better if we’d forced more clean-up of bank balance sheets, in particular write-down and restructuring of loans, so that we would be on a path to getting the banks off the official dole.”

- Pundits seem fixated on picking out the next Black Swan event, and Josh Brown at The Reformed Broker, frankly, sounds tired of it. “Sometimes, it’s just an ordinary Black Duck,” Brown says. “A negative event or possibility that is processed and dealt with, that doesn’t necessarily lead to contagion, panic and meltdown.” Don’t dismiss warning signs, he says, but “the more we learn not to get hysterical over every Black Duck, the better the chances are that when the real things comes along, we will be cogent enough in our reaction to them.”

- The unofficial start to earnings season is around the corner, but Forbes blogger Sy Harding notes the 3Q earnings “warning” period — already underway — isn’t providing positive clues. Harding notes 112 of the 500 companies in S&P 500 have issued pre-announces — 34 have said their results will beat analysts’ estimates, while 78 have said they won’t. “That 2.3 to 1 ratio is running considerably more negative than the second quarter earnings warning period,” Harding says. If the trend carries over, it could be one disappointing reporting season.

- Non-voting Fed member Charles Plosser said additional asset buying won’t speed up a recovery in the labor market and, conversely, could actually damage the Fed’s credibility. “If one thing is for certain, the debate in the Fed leading into the November FOMC meeting will be heated over the decision whether to continue to push the envelope with monetary policy,” says Peter Boockvar, a Miller Tabak equity strategist. “While Plosser’s comments are welcome from my point of view, the voting members have a much more dovish slant.”

- There’s a reason this “recovery” doesn’t exactly feel like a true recovery; it’s merely a “statistical illusion,” Mish says. He notes government spending extracted from GDP doesn’t paint a recovery picture. “All this talk of a ‘recovery’ is nonsensical. Careful analysis shows the alleged recovery is nothing more than an illusion caused by unsustainable deficit spending.”

- With 3Q earnings season kicking off next week, Bespoke Investment Group notes the financial sector is expected to see biggest quarterly earnings growth. Financials earnings estimated to rise 48% from last year, while industrials, tech, energy and materials also are expected to outpace the broader S&P 500.

- “Despite what we hear — the recession is over and the upside is ‘easy’ — let me tell you something you already know: it’s not easy and it ain’t over,” Todd Harrison writes at Minyanville. “I consider myself an optimistic realist, meaning I hope for the best but call it as I see it. I foresee another side of the financial storm before the epitaph is written on this Great Recession.”

- Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO Lloyd Blankfein issued a veiled warning today that GS could sidle out of Europe if regulatory crackdowns get too harsh, FT reports.

- Google (GOOG) must do whatever it takes to buy Twitter, Henry Blodget writes, in his long-standing advocacy for such a deal. “Whatever it costs Google to buy Twitter today is worth it.”

- Deal-making has been coming back, with another spate of deals and potential deals announced yesterday, but with one notable difference, John Curran writes at Time’s Curious Capitalist blog. “The big difference is, this merger-fest probably won’t result in higher stock prices.”

- “The Fed may need to do something to shock markets into believing that it is serious about reversing the decline in (inflation) expectations,” Ryan Avent notes at The Economist’s Free Exchange blog. “Without a firm commitment to an eye-popping number, markets may simply believe that the Fed will pull the plug on the purchases before the job is done — a belief that will undermine the impact of the purchases.”

- “What’s the bear case on QE2?” ponders Minyanville’s Todd Harrison. “Think Rocky Balboa at the end of the first movie; there ain’t gonna be no rematch, and there ain’t gonna be no QE3,” Harrison notes. “That’s the risk for policymakers. It’s the next to last bullet (and you know where the last one is pointed).”

- Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) maintains “emulating Apple is not part of our strategy,” but it wouldn’t hurt H-P to focus on excellence in user experience, Digital Daily blogger John Paczkowski says. “Because if it nails that and then ‘doubles down’ on webOS as promised, we could see some very interesting things coming out of H-P in the months ahead.”

- Apple shares dropped as much as 5.6% Tuesday before closing down 1.5%. Rumors swirled in the morning that Apple COO Tim Cook could become the new Hewlett-Packard chief. But that rumor was quickly dismissed.

- CNet’s Software Interrupted blog points out that Google (GOOG) has acquired 23 companies so far this year, compared with none for Microsoft (MSFT). That means MSFT, already fighting what many consider a losing battle in search, is also losing out in top start-up technologies like mobile and social networking, as well as foregoing some of the best talent available.

- To the delight of nerds across the country, it turns out that Apple’s (AAPL) new Apple TV can be hacked just like an iPhone, iPad and iPod Touch, a popular group of hackers announced last night on their blog. The group, known as the “Dev-Team,” have for the past few years been finding ways to run unauthorized software on AAPL’s popular mobile devices.

- The churn among Yahoo’s (YHOO) executive ranks continues, as Jimmy Pitaro, VP of Media, is expected to leave the company soon, reports All Things D blogger Kara Swisher. “Adding Pitaro to the pile will only increase pressure on [CEO Carol] Bartz…to show investors that Yahoo has a clear plan amidst the executive turmoil.”

- AOL goes on a spending spree, scooping up TechCrunch, one of the most influential blogs in Silicon Valley, as well as Web video-syndication company 5min Media.

- Two wins later, Jason Gay says its time for NY Jets QB Mark Sanchez to give up his blanky.

- Lots of chatter that Obama will appoint a CEO to replace Larry Summers, an idea that irks Paul Krugman. “For one thing, the NEC director is supposed to serve as a coordinator and honest broker among views — not, or at least not primarily, as a decision maker,” Krugman writes. “That’s not what CEOs are paid for — their job is to be decisive, not summarize other peoples’ arguments.”

- Blockbuster filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy highlights how the mighty have fallen compared to the raging success of Netflix, Josh Brown says. “There is a cautionary business tale in here that is both timeless and essential for all investors to understand…It’s a story that’s been told a million times — the complacent giant felled by a nimbler, hungrier upstart with new ideas.”

- Initial jobless claims continue to portray a labor market stuck in neutral. “Make no mistake: The longer the job market remains stuck in a rut, the stronger the case for arguing that we’re suffering a potent bout of structural unemployment,” James Picerno notes.

- Cable giants publicly say the “cord-cutting” trend — consumers giving up cable for Internet video — is just a myth. But Verizon (VZ) CEO Ivan Seidenberg begs to differ, saying the cable bundle will follow wireline telephone as an example of old technology that eventually becomes obsolete. “Young people are pretty smart,” Seidenberg says. “They’re not going to pay for something they don’t need to.”

- The timing of Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s $100 million donation to Newark, NJ, public schools is getting the usual scrubbing in the blogosphere. Donation coincides with premiere of “The Social Network,” a movie that doesn’t exactly paint the prettiest picture of Zuckerberg. All Things D blogger Kara Swisher says: “Zuckerberg himself decided to move forward now, sources said, apparently concluding that even if a prominent movie was portraying him as the villain, he did not have to act like one in real life.”

- Existing home sales bounced off a record low and rose a better-than-expected 7.6% in August. But Calculated Risk points out inventory increased 1.5% in August from a year earlier. “The bottom line: Sales were very weak in August — almost exactly at the levels I expected – and will continue to be weak for some time. Inventory is very high, and that will put downward pressure on house prices.”

- Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone tops JD Power’s smartphone satisfaction study for a fourth straight year. But the results weren’t so sweet for Nokia (NOK), ranking below Palm, which isn’t even a public company anymore. “Another humiliating blow for Nokia which continues to struggle for relevance in the smartphone market,” Digital Daily blogger John Paczkowski says. “Incoming CEO Stephen Elop has his work cut out for him.”

- Stock-exchange operators and regulators are moving closer toward replacing new circuit breakers for individual stocks with curbs that would limit trading outside of a set range, WSJ reports.

- In the “Wall Street” sequel, Michael Douglas is splendidly slimy as Gordon Gekko but the rest of the film doesn’t measure up, says Joe Morgenstern.

- F-bomb your way to the top. “Swearing may help you do your @#!%ing job. Yeah, you read that correctly, WSJ’s Deal Journal blog says.

- With earnings season only a few weeks away, Josh Brown notes a pattern that’s developed in last six quarters. “A run up in stocks at the beginning of earnings season’s opening month followed by the almost inevitable denouement as hearts are broken and focus is diverted elsewhere,” he says. “The Ghosts of Earnings Past are haunting the nascent rally even as you read this.”

- Now that the recession is technically over, Yves Smith wonders if this is what a recovery really feels like. “The ugly fact is that serious financial crises take a very long time to resolve and result in a permanent fall in the standard of living,” she writes. “The best we can hope for, absent aggressive government action, is an economy that bumps along at a low level of what is technically growth, but is very far from what most businessmen and consumers would consider healthy.”

- Larry Summers’ decision to step down as one of Obama’s top economic advisers is a long-time coming, FusionIQ CEO Barry Ritholtz says. “Summers was a defender of the status quo…The change people voted for never appeared, and the Summers-led economic team gave us two more years of Bush bailout policies. For that humongous error, his departure is a welcome change.”

- Mark Thoma questions why the Fed’s taking a “wait and see” approach on whether more QE or other stimulative measures are needed for the economy. “The Fed should have learned that it needs to act preemptively from its mistake in dealing with the housing bubble,” Thoma says. “Cleaning up after the fact, which is what ‘wait and see’ amounts to, is inferior to preventing problems before they appear.”

- Google’s M&A department has thrown lots of money at many different ideas, but it’s hard to argue with some of its successful wagers throughout the years, including Android and YouTube, Digital Daily blogger John Paczkowski says. “Of course that’s just two acquisitions out of the 80 or so that Google’s made since 2001,” he notes. “But obviously the threat of a clunker investment or two isn’t going to temper Google’s aggressive acquisition strategy.”

- Bullish sentiment among advisors hit 41.4%, according to the Investors Intelligence weekly sentiment survey, which marks its highest level since early August. But, as Bespoke points out, bullish sentiment has hit that level a few times in recent months, with stocks not experiencing much success in the aftermath. “Will the third time be the charm or are we in for more of the same?”

- Keep an eye on the “quiet expansion” of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s duties, especially in the aftermath of Larry Summers’ resignation, Yves Smith notes at naked capitalism. “The speculation has long been that he would not stay much beyond the mid-terms, but that looks like a far less sure bet than it did a few months ago.”

- Housing prices continue falling in wake of government’s home-buyer tax credit, dropping to lowest level in nearly six years, according to FHFA home price index. “With the two-year tax credit experience in the rearview mirror, officials probably need to be thinking about going back to the policy drawing board,” Ryan Avent writes.

- The recession’s officially over, but Tyler Cowen says it’s premature to believe the economy’s bottoming-out process is over. “It looks like a recovery only because things were, for a while, so extremely bad. I don’t yet think of us as being in a true recovery mode at all.”

- Runners are abandoning races with quirky distances in favor of the standard marathon or half marathon.

- The recession getting an official ending isn’t a surprise, but it doesn’t change the fact that to the average Joe, it doesn’t feel like the recession’s over. “Obviously, the employment picture is still dismal, and people complaining that policymakers should focus on labor markets rather than output have a point,” Ryan Avent says. “It’s just not one that’s particularly relevant to what the NBER Dating Committee does.”

- – NBER says recession’s over, but it’s not clear employment has bottomed out yet. “That is my worry about this call,” writes Mark Thoma. “Whether or not we stay near the trough for an extended period or move gradually but consistently back to full employment is an open question, but I don’t think we can discount the stagnation outcome.”

- Many strategists have been cautiously optimistic about the September rally because it has come on low volume, but Reformed Broker blogger Josh Brown says he actually prefers a low-volume breakout. “Nobody is in,” he says. “Fear is the conductor of this train right now, period, end of story…Fear of missing out is exactly why a stealth rally in stocks with low participation would be more meaningful and bullish than almost any other scenario.”

- Expect an interesting week ahead, says PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian, as Europe’s debt crisis returns to spotlight amid increasing solvency concerns. And global configuration of currencies is quickly becoming hot-button issue. “This week will shed light on whether policymakers can do anything to deal with these two issues,” he says. If they continue to stumble and hesitate, what has been simmering may well come to a full boil in the next few months.”

- Calculated Risk blogger Bill McBride doesn’t expect any major changes to tomorrow’s FOMC statement. Too soon for Bernanke to comment on further easing, especially considering his Jackson Hole speech. “Bernanke suggested that additional easing would probably require ‘significant weakening of the outlook’ or a meaningful decline in inflation expectations (or further disinflation),” he notes. “The first hasn’t happened yet…although they might express more concern about disinflation this week.”

- Paul Krugman provides more evidence that unemployment remains high because aggregate demand is too low. “Every single major industry has seen a rise in involuntary part-time work; so has every major occupation,” he says at Conscience of a Liberal. “There’s no hint that any major kind of labor, in any sector, is in short supply.”

- Weak demand remains most important factor holding back job growth. But it’s not the only factor, James Hamilton argues at Econbrowser. He points to latest NFIB data which show respondents say sales are their biggest problem, but they’re increasingly worried about taxes as well as government regulations.

- S&P 500′s double-digit percentage rally off July lows has been broad based, lacking a particularly strong sector during run-up, Bill Luby writes at VIX and More blog. Materials and industrials have been top performers, while consumer discretionary and tech have recently shown signs of life. “Consumer and financial sectors cannot afford to be a significant drag on stocks or the current rally will likely run out of steam.”

- Google (GOOG) CEO Eric Schmidt recently said he wants to add social networking to the company’s core products and services. “When I read those remarks, an alarm bell went off in my head,” Mathew Ingram writes at GigaOm. “To truly be successful, social media or social networking…can’t just be bolted onto what you are already doing. It’s not a software upgrade or a hardware fix…social just isn’t something the company understands very well.”

- Here’s a perfect example of an inspiring hypomanic entreprenuer: “I had friends at Princeton; I’m sure it’d be fun to see them,” says 21-year-old Seth Priebatsch. “But I know that what I’m going after is huge and others are going after it, and if they’re not, they’re making a mistake. But other people will figure it out, and every minute that I’m not working on it is a minute when they’re making progress and I’m not. And that is just not O.K.”

- “We have the specter of Greece’s finance minister insisting really, no really, it will never ever default, or default via restructuring,” Yves Smith quips at naked capitalism. “Now given the unfortunate accident of timing, these protests sound awfully Dick Fuld like, although the better parallel is probably Mexico, which kept insisting in 1994, no way, no how would it need to restructure, despite having a lot of dollar denominated obligations and an untenable currency peg,” she adds. “And it was OK, until it wasn’t.”

- As chatter ramps up about new stimulus plans, FusionIQ CEO Barry Ritholtz has his own ideas for what he would do if given $1T to stimulate the economy. “Some folks believe the government should do nothing, spend no money, focus on balancing the budget,” Ritholtz says. “But is the ideal time to begin a new diet and exercise regime when you have pneumonia? The time to reduce the government’s economic deficit and footprint is during a robust expansion, not during (or just after) a contraction.”

- S&P 500 still hasn’t eclipsed its August highs, but market breadth has indicated underlying strength in the September rally, Bespoke Investment Group says. About 80% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 50-day moving averages, which is higher than last month. “This isn’t quite to the highest levels seen over the last year, but it’s getting close.”

- “It takes jobs to create households, and usually housing is the key driver for employment growth in the early stages of a recovery,” Calculated Risk says. “So this is a trap: the excess supply means weak employment growth, leading to few new households, so the excess supply is absorbed slowly — putting off more robust employment growth.”

- JPMorgan Chase (JPM) finally issues a formal apology for the web problems that plagued its online banking service earlier this week. “We are sorry for the difficulties that recently affected Chase.com, and we apologize for not communicating better with you during this issue,” JPM says on its website. The apology is notable as many bloggers and folks on Twitter had criticized JPM for its failure to properly communicate this issue with its customers.

- Google Voice cofounder Craig Walker is leaving his role as a manager of real-time communications at Google (GOOG) and returning to his entrepreneurial roots. Walker, who was previously chief executive of Grand Central and renamed Google Voice after its acquisition by GOOG in 2007, will become Google Venture’s first resident entrepreneur, TechCrunch reports.

- “With two strong divergent opinions on gold and low implied volatility levels, this could be an excellent time to buy options in order to establish speculative long or short positions in the metal,” Bill Luby writes.

- All Things D blogger Kara Swisher doesn’t sugarcoat her thoughts on Yahoo (YHOO) CEO Carol Bartz. “Her actions in regards to the Internet giant’s Asian relationships are about as bad as it gets these days.”

- Poverty rate climbed to 14.3% last year, while those lacking health insurance rose to 50.7 million from 46.3 million. Incomes fell slightly as households relied on government and family aid to weather the recession.

- For the city that never sleeps, take a look at some of Central Park’s midnight runners.