Market Talk

- Lots of chatter that Obama will appoint a CEO to replace Larry Summers, an idea that irks Paul Krugman. “For one thing, the NEC director is supposed to serve as a coordinator and honest broker among views — not, or at least not primarily, as a decision maker,” Krugman writes. “That’s not what CEOs are paid for — their job is to be decisive, not summarize other peoples’ arguments.”

- Blockbuster filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy highlights how the mighty have fallen compared to the raging success of Netflix, Josh Brown says. “There is a cautionary business tale in here that is both timeless and essential for all investors to understand…It’s a story that’s been told a million times — the complacent giant felled by a nimbler, hungrier upstart with new ideas.”

- Initial jobless claims continue to portray a labor market stuck in neutral. “Make no mistake: The longer the job market remains stuck in a rut, the stronger the case for arguing that we’re suffering a potent bout of structural unemployment,” James Picerno notes.

- Cable giants publicly say the “cord-cutting” trend — consumers giving up cable for Internet video — is just a myth. But Verizon (VZ) CEO Ivan Seidenberg begs to differ, saying the cable bundle will follow wireline telephone as an example of old technology that eventually becomes obsolete. “Young people are pretty smart,” Seidenberg says. “They’re not going to pay for something they don’t need to.”

- The timing of Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s $100 million donation to Newark, NJ, public schools is getting the usual scrubbing in the blogosphere. Donation coincides with premiere of “The Social Network,” a movie that doesn’t exactly paint the prettiest picture of Zuckerberg. All Things D blogger Kara Swisher says: “Zuckerberg himself decided to move forward now, sources said, apparently concluding that even if a prominent movie was portraying him as the villain, he did not have to act like one in real life.”

- Existing home sales bounced off a record low and rose a better-than-expected 7.6% in August. But Calculated Risk points out inventory increased 1.5% in August from a year earlier. “The bottom line: Sales were very weak in August — almost exactly at the levels I expected – and will continue to be weak for some time. Inventory is very high, and that will put downward pressure on house prices.”

- Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone tops JD Power’s smartphone satisfaction study for a fourth straight year. But the results weren’t so sweet for Nokia (NOK), ranking below Palm, which isn’t even a public company anymore. “Another humiliating blow for Nokia which continues to struggle for relevance in the smartphone market,” Digital Daily blogger John Paczkowski says. “Incoming CEO Stephen Elop has his work cut out for him.”

- Stock-exchange operators and regulators are moving closer toward replacing new circuit breakers for individual stocks with curbs that would limit trading outside of a set range, WSJ reports.

- In the “Wall Street” sequel, Michael Douglas is splendidly slimy as Gordon Gekko but the rest of the film doesn’t measure up, says Joe Morgenstern.

- F-bomb your way to the top. “Swearing may help you do your @#!%ing job. Yeah, you read that correctly, WSJ’s Deal Journal blog says.

- National savings rate in June inched up to 6.4% from 6.3% a month earlier and is approaching the 50-year average of 6.9%. “On the one hand, higher savings will put a crimp on consumer spending which of course makes up a majority of US GDP,” says Miller Tabak’s Peter Boockvar.. “But on the other, higher savings is the fuel for investment which helps to finance businesses everywhere that are getting crowded out in their borrowing by the enormous needs of the US government and some European ones.”

- The Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index hit its lowest level since the index’s inception in 2003. Most of the poll’s decline came from the “Future Expectations” category of the survey, which follows business owners’ expectations for cash flows, new jobs, access to credit and capital spending. “In other words, as dour as the subjects are about the present sitch, they are even more so about the near future,” Josh Brown writes at The Reformed Broker.

- By next year, Apple (AAPL) will likely become the second-largest semiconductor buyer in the world, thanks to the iPhone, which prompts TechCrunch’s Steve Cheney to ponder: “Should Apple own its own wireless chip development?” Rumors are swirling Intel (INTC) may be close to acquiring Infineon’s (IFX.XE) wireless chip business, but “based on Apple’s deep relationship with Infineon, and its famed secrecy around M&A, it is a pretty safe bet that Steve Jobs is analyzing the implications of a deal.”

- Consumer spending and personal income were both flat last month, slightly below economists’ expectations. “That’s not terribly surprising these days, but it’s hardly encouraging. Perhaps the best we can say is that it’s more of the same,” James Picerno writes at The Capital Spectator.

- Android may not be a money-maker, yet, but it’s still a success. Google’s (GOOG) strategy differs from Apple (AAPL), which sells great products while tightly controlling its hardware and software distribution. Conversely, Google “sprays its software all over the place for free, betting on owning the future of the mobile Internet and search advertising businesses the way it owns them on the web,” Dan Frommer notes. “That’s why, despite Apple’s huge financial lead, Android is already a big early success for Google.”

- About the Fed potentially plowing cash from its maturing debt back into the Treasury market: “It’s not a huge move, but letting the MBS portfolio slowly burn off is inherently tightening,” Joe Weisenthal says at The Money Game. “Rolling over that portfolio, therefore, maintains the status quo.”

- “Lately the Fed seems more interested justifying why it doesn’t need to do anything more to boost the economy rather than grappling with actual data showing that the economy needs more help from the Fed,” University of Oregon economics professor Mark Thoma writes.

- Ever since stocks bottomed out in early July, gold hasn’t been able to generate a sustainable rally. And for much of 2010 gold and the US dollar, which are usually inversely correlated, have essentially moved in lockstep. “Over the last six months the two assets have been more positively correlated than at any other time in at least ten years,” Bespoke Investment Group says.

- Research in Motion (RIMM) Co-CEO Mike Lazardis calls BlackBerry Torch launch one of most important in the company’s history, which certainly isn’t an understatement. But the question remains: Is this device a “buzzworthy breakthrough or just another BlackBerry?” asks Digital Daily blogger John Paczkowski.

- Many corporations and their shareholders are enjoying surging profits and boosted dividends, but employees are still waiting on returns of the 401(k) matches.

- The main difference between Citigroup’s (C) $75M settlement with SEC Goldman Sachs’ (GS) $550M settlement is GS was guilty of misleading clients while Citi was guilty of negligently misleading shareholders. But the public is much angrier over GS case, which the “Kid Dynamite” blogger finds hard to fathom. “People should be furious about this Citi case and settlement, but you’ve probably hardly heard a whisper about it.”

- Prospects aren’t looking bright for the restaurant industry. Same-store sales and customer traffic both declined for a third-straight month in June, Calculated Risk reports. “Restaurants are a discretionary expense, and this contraction could be because of the sluggish recovery or might suggest further weakness in consumer spending in the months ahead.”

- Roughly 25% of Americans sit in FICO’s least-creditworthy category, a significant jump from only 15% before the recession. “Some people will lament this, but it has a silver lining,” FusionIQ CEO Barry Ritholtz says. “Deleveraging is certainly a good thing, and forcing consumers off of the credit treadmill may actually help these folks over the long haul.”

- The commercial real estate market is getting ugly, slowly but surely. Delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS increased $3.1B in June to $60.45, and has more than doubled from a year ago, according to Realpoint. “This isn’t quite the disaster in the making that subprime was,” Yves Smith notes. But “I’m not sure why people say there isn’t a CRE crash. It’s just happening in slow motion, so far.”

- ISM manufacturing index fell for a third-straight month in July, but at 55.5, it exceeded economists’ expectations. “Bottom line, while the ISM remains firmly above 50, just ten of the 18 industries surveyed reported growth, with four reporting outright contraction and the drop in new orders is worth watching,” writes Miller Tabak’s Peter Boockvar. “With this said, the market is breathing a sigh of relief that while down for a third month, the ISM is still hanging in as inventory builds, albeit at a slower pace, and export growth continuing.”

- Newspaper advertising sales were less bad in 2Q vs a quarter ago. “But less bad is not the same as good — and the outlook for the remainder of the year is decidedly murky,” writes Newsosaur blogger Alan Mutter.

- A new website — JailbreakMe.com — has sprung up offering an easy way to hack, or “jailbreak,” an iPhone to run applications not authorized by Apple (AAPL).

- “This market is one that moves largely on the basis of economywide hopes and fears,” NYT’s Floyd Norris says. “Company specifics take a back seat.”

- “Remember when we weren’t allowed to say the word ‘recession?’ Like it was anathema?” Todd Harrison says at Minyanville. “Or when we weren’t ‘patriotic’ if we weren’t ‘bullish’ after 9/11?,” he recalls. “Is ‘deflation’ the modern day equivalent of ‘recession?’”

- Battle over the proposed Ground Zero mosque is picking up steam.

- If everyone’s so concerned about federal deficits, why the record low yields on US Treasurys, wonders FusionIQ CEO Barry Ritholtz. “Part of the answer is the lack of alternatives. Where else are you going to park yield-seeking money? Euro denominated issues? UK debt? Japanese bonds, emerging markets?” he ponders. “Amongst the motley crew of sovereign debt issuers, the US Treasury is the least ugly girl at the dance.”

- “I have and continue to believe this is a trader’s market in which valuations matter little,” Pragmatic Capitalism says. Ultimately, the macro trends are so fierce that the tides will sink or lift all boats.”

- Apple (AAPL) may be poised to update its iMac and Mac Pro computers sooner rather than later. The MacRumors blog tracks in-store pre-order availability and has taken note of depleted stock at several retail stores, suggesting updated models could be in the offing. MacRumors also points out the iMac was last updated in October, while the Mac Pro was last refreshed in March 2009.

- General tone from European analysts digesting the stress tests is “remarkably sanguine,” NYT’s DealBook says. The tests represent “a substantial step forward,” Goldman Sachs says, although notes if Tier 1 capital ratio was lifted to 7% from 6%, it would’ve tripled the number of failed banks from seven to 24.

- Oracle (ORCL) last week vehemently denied it has a five-year, $70B acquisition budget, which President Charles Phillips originally claimed in a Fortune Magazine article. But, as Digital Daily blogger John Paczkowski points out, it’s obvious Oracle doesn’t want competitors to know its strategic plans. “Hard to believe that a company as aggressively acquisitive as Oracle doesn’t have an M&A budget,” Paczkowski says. “But evidently that’s the party line here and by the sound of things Phillips clearly overstepped it.”

- Google (GOOG) introduces Google Apps for Government, a new edition of its package of Internet-based applications specifically designed to meet the policy and security needs of the public sector.

- When digesting the new home sales report, keep in mind the data point is notoriously noisy, Ritholtz says. June’s 24% monthly increase comes on the heels of May’s 33% drop. “Ignore the swings, look at the moving average to smooth out the volatility.”

- June new home sales surged 24% from a month earlier to 330,000. But don’t get too giddy, especially since the sales level represents the second lowest on record since 1963. “Bottom line, while the figure was better than expected, new home sales make up less than 10% of the overall industry with existing homes making up the balance,” Miller Tabak’s Peter Boockvar says. “It’s good to see a pick up in new home sales but an overall market that still has way to much inventory does not need too many new homes built.”

- IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI) chief Barry Diller tells CNNMoney that his firm has jumped on the Facebook advertising bandwagon, another indication the social network is gaining traction on Madison Avenue. “My company, which spends a huge amount on advertising, we spend every nickel we can on Facebook,” Diller says. “They’re effective. The targeting of the audience is precise enough. The message and the audience are quite aligned.”

- Robert Dudley has quite the to-do list facing him at BP.

- If Google (GOOG) can grow revenue, why can’t Yahoo (YHOO)? That’s the question Eric Savitz poses at Barron’s Tech Trader Daily blog. “[Yahoo CEO Carol] Bartz inspires confidence, she’s big on taking decisive action, but for all her efforts, the company still isn’t growing,” he says. “At some point, Yahoo is going to need a more clearly defined growth strategy — and it will have to execute on it.” Yahoo shares drop 8.5%.

- Google issues a 20-page response to FTC’s staff discussion draft about the future of journalism in the digital age. Main takeaway: Don’t blame Google for the newspaper industry’s troubles. “The large profit margins newspapers enjoyed in the past were built on an artificial scarcity: Limited choice for advertisers as well as readers,” Google says. (Hat tip, Jeff Jarvis.)

- Any worries that the iPad would hurt Mac sales were put to bed in Apple’s (AAPL) 3Q results. Apple set a quarterly record by selling 3.47M Macs in 3Q, a 33% increase from a year ago. “If the iPad is having any effect on Mac sales, it’s an additive one,” Digital Daily blogger John Paczkowski says. “Like the iPod once did, the new slate from Apple seems to be having a halo effect on Mac sales thanks to the publicity and Apple Store floor traffic it has generated.”

- Just how impressive were Apple’s quarterly results? Look no further than the 3.27M iPads sold during 3Q, TechCrunch says. Put into context, that’s only 200,000 fewer units than all the Macs sold. And 3Q was the best Mac sales quarter ever. “In other words, in just about any other quarter, the iPad would have outsold the Mac,” TechCrunch says, while expecting the iPad to blow past Mac sales next quarter.

- Bulls once again get rejected trying to rally S&P 500 significantly above its 50-day moving average. Bespoke Investment Group reports this is the fourth separate time since the “flash crash” in early May that the index has turned back at its 50-day moving average. “Bulls had been hoping that strong earnings would be the catalyst to take the S&P 500 to the other side of its 50-day, but so far the bears (and Bernanke) are having none of it.”

- Yesterday’s trading showed “the high-frequency-trading nerds were in full swing, but to the upside this time,” Doug Kass writes. “I have written that few complain when the algorithms take the market up (like yesterday). But I would prefer to be intellectually honest, even when the programs take the market up, and I will not stop writing about this subject until the SEC acts responsibly and curbs certain high-frequency-trading strategies.”

- The housing market is stumbling, once again. “In major markets across the country, home sales are deteriorating, inventories of unsold homes are piling up and builders are scaling back construction plans,” WSJ says.

- “Returning to a sensible, fundamentals-based housing market is painful, but ultimately, it’s something we’re going to have to do, one way or another,” Barbara Kiviat writes at Time’s Curious Capitalist blog.

- A stumbling housing market offers clear evidence that the housing tax credit was a “clear and unequivocal failure,” Bill McBride writes at Calculated Risk. “Not only did most of the benefit go to people who were going to buy anyway, but the credit didn’t reduce the overall supply,” he says. Ultimately, the tax credit merely pulled demand forward. “This is a textbook example of bad policy.”

- “At just 12 times prospective earnings and with prodigious cash flow enabling it simultaneously to keep up its pace of small acquisitions while still repurchasing shares, the market may soon realize that its diagnosis of J&J was overly dire,” Lex says.

- Are Goldman shares worth a flier at current levels? James Stewart weighs in.

- Nokia’s (NOK) adding its own twist to the Apple/Gizmodo iPhone 4 controversy earlier this year. Nokia’s getting Russian police involved in asking Eldar Murtazin, editor-in-chief of Moscow-based mobile-review.com, to return the prototype N8, a device he gave an unfavorable review earlier this year.

- “Investors have this week been buying up names that have been hit the hardest in recent months, which is usually the case when we see bounces like this,” Bespoke says.

- Banks and regulators must take “appropriate action” to strengthen banks’ resilience to shocks and safeguard the health of Europe’s financial system, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet says.

- Whatever happened to all those toxic assets on banks’ balance sheets that garnered so much attention a while back?

- Jobless claims dropping 21,000 to 454,000 represents a “tactical victory for the bulls,” James Picerno writes at The Capital Spectator. “But until and if the trend rolls on it’s only marginally encouraging. The strategic outlook, in other words, is still up for grabs.”

- Silicon Alley Insider says the real reason Google (GOOG) is worried about Facebook is that people buying things are more inclined to trust their friends than strangers or search ads. SAI says that’s the key message in a presentation prepared by Google researcher Paul Adams for company execs who are plotting the company’s next social network initiative, rumored to be called “Google Me.”

- Individual investors are turning more bearish, which contrarians could actually view as a bullish indicator. Only 25% of AAII’s respondents are bullish on stocks, compared to 42% who say they are bears. “I always prefer actual buy and sell driven data — prices, volume, asset allocation, etc. — versus mere surveys,” Big Picture blogger Barry Ritholtz says. “They can be useful, but have huge limitations. Us humans are notorious for saying what we hope, rather than what actually is.”

- Double-dip has dominated the market chatter in recent days. While pundits keep saying the economy won’t fall back into a recession, Reuters’ David Gaffen isn’t so sure. “It may not happen — but when a lot of people are trying to convince you that something’s not going to happen, it can make you believe that it’s more likely than not.”

- The commercial real estate market hasn’t collapsed because of a strategy known as “extend and pretend,” essentially banks giving troubled borrowers time to make good on their bets until the economy recovers. “Sometimes, it actually works. But, usually it doesn’t — especially when practiced on an industry-wide scale,” Henry Blodget writes at Business Insider.

- The LeBron James surreality show is about to begin. He’s “leaning” toward Miami, but we still have faith he’s coming to the Big Apple. Let the “LeBronference” begin.

- The unemployment rate’s sharp drop to 9.5% isn’t a reason to celebrate. The decline is a reflection of the labor force participation rate tumbling to a new low of 64.7%. Not exactly good news. “If people are just giving up and removing themselves from the work force, then a falling unemployment rate only serves to hide the bad news,” Reuters blogger Felix Salmon says.

- Key aspects in the jobs report include the decline in average hourly earnings and the work-week decrease. “Both are pointing to a continuation of deflationary pressures,” Karl Denninger writes at The Market Ticker. “It’s not serious — yet — but this isn’t what you want to see if the employment situation is supposed to be improving and the economy is supposed to be recovering.”

- Two of Barry’s three leading economic indicators in the June jobs report were negative. Not a good sign.

- Less-than-stellar jobs report actually fits in with the economy’s recovery path: slow and choppy. “I am still anticipating a slow growth scenario for the balance of 2010, with economic expansion — and the accompanying data — moving forward in a fashion that will probably resemble the path taken by someone trying to drive a manual transmission vehicle for the first time,” Bill Luby notes at the VIX and More blog.

- Economy has added nearly 600,000 private sector jobs throughout the last six months. Sounds impressive and certainly represents a step in the right direction. “But let’s not sugarcoat the results,” James Picerno writes at The Capital Spectator. “They’re tepid, given what’s required to a) make substantial headway in repairing the damage from the Great Recession; and b) keeping the so-far vulnerable economic recovery from fading.”

- It’s not getting much attention, but Google (GOOG) shares are now riding a 12-day losing streak after falling 0.7% to 436.55 today. This is the company’s longest losing streak since its IPO in 2004, Bespoke Investment Group points out. GOOG’s previous longest losing streak was nine days, which ended in June 2009. Google has dropped 13% since streak began June 17; it’s off 30% on the year, incidentally.

- Another discouraging jobs report, which should give policymakers more incentive to help the troubled labor market. “I expect they will do something that will allow them to say they tried to help when it comes time to defend their records during reelection, but I don’t expect they’ll do anything near what’s needed,” writes University of Oregon economics professor Mark Thoma. “Congress needs to finally step up to the plate. But when they do, don’t expect a home run — we’ll be lucky if they don’t strike out.”

- There’s a bright side to the stock market’s recent swoon: There are lots of cheap investments out there. If S&P 500 ends the year at current levels, the index’s P/E ratio will be the cheapest it’s been since 1989, Chad Brand writes. “I know the headlines have been bleak over the last eight weeks or so, but stocks are quite cheap, especially given low interest rates and tame inflation.”

- Apple says the signal-strength display of the iPhone is faulty and plans to provide a free software update, marking the latest issue among a number of high-profile problems the company has faced in recent months.

- Amare to the Knicks? Looking possible. I can see it now – Amare now, LeBron later…make it happen Donnie Walsh!

- Yves Smith at naked capitalism doesn’t see much substance in China’s pledge to make its currency exchange rate more flexible. “While this does represent an announcement of an intent to liberalize, it lacks any particulars as to timing and mechanisms.”

- China pledging to make its exchange rate more flexible is, at this point, just an announcement “which may or may not be followed through,” Barry Ritholtz writes at The Big Picture. “As such, we should treat it as a precursor, and not the significant shift the market seems to be making of the announcement.”

- UC San Diego economics professor James Hamilton still sees deflationary forces swirling through the economy even as inflation is the bigger longer-term risk. “America needs leaders willing to talk honestly about our long-run fiscal challenges and what needs to be done to address them,” he says. “I can dream, can’t I?”

- The IPO market has become a “sad tale,” says Fred Wilson. “The cost is just too high and the benefits are just too low for most companies these days.”

- The biggest headwind to US growth isn’t the state of Europe, it’s a lack of credit here. it’s a lack of credit here. “Two years ago, when the government rushed to bail out Wall Street, the justification was always the same. We have to do it. If we don’t, the banks will stop lending. And then the world will end,” Henry Blodget writes at Business Insider. “So we bailed out Wall Street. And the world didn’t end. But the banks still aren’t lending (And you can’t blame them, really.)”

- Apple’s (AAPL) iPad will hurt Kindle sales for Amazon (AMZN), but it won’t be a Kindle-killer, MediaMemo blogger Peter Kafka says. Keep in mind AMZN still offers a wider range of e-books than AAPL and sells them for much less. “My guess is that even after Apple eats into Kindle’s share, Amazon is going to find plenty of people who just want an e-reader.”

- China’s announced currency move probably won’t amount to much in the short term, Michael Schuman writes at Time’s Curious Capitalist blog. “This is a baby step on a long road to a truly market-determined yuan exchange rate,” he says. “Until China allows a free-floating currency, controversy over its value will persist, and the yuan will play a limited role in the global economy.”

- The stock market has reached an important inflection point, as “valuations remain uncomfortably rich and market action is tenuous,” writes John Hussman. “When an overvalued market loses support from market internals, it frequently produces discontinuous outcomes ranging from brief ‘air pockets’ to ‘panics’ to ‘crashes,’” Hussman says.

- Former IMF chief economist Simon Johnson remains less than impressed with financial regulatory reform, labeling it “dead on arrival.”

- China isn’t the first country that has pledged to make its currency exchange rate more flexible. “Exiting up does not doom the economy to a Japanese-style lost decade,” VoxEU says.

- “Either market volatility is about to increase substantially from current levels or options traders have overestimated future volatility,” Bill Luby writes. “If we have one or two more days in which stocks show average to slightly higher than usual volatility, expect the VIX to begin to move back down to a level that is a better reflection of those daily moves.” Indeed, VIX drops 9.7% to 34.61 as stocks close slightly lower, paring steep intraday losses.

- Threat of deflation isn’t as concerning as some folks like to believe, says David Beckworth. Even though the recovery has been sluggish and weak, don’t expect another collapse in spending. “Both current and expected spending are growing. It may be not be growing as fast as we want, but it is growing and there is no sign of an imminent collapse.”

- “The most important thing to know about the 1,500-page financial reform bill passed by the Senate last week — now on the way to being reconciled with the House bill — is that it’s regulatory,” says former labor secretary Robert Reich. “It does nothing to change the structure of Wall Street.”

- “Amazon (AMZN) for some time has talked up the success of its Kindle, including the claim that the device is the biggest-selling item on its site. But it is hard to avoid the conclusion that Chief Executive Jeff Bezos was trying to lower expectations at the company’s annual meeting Tuesday,” Martin Peers writes at WSJ’s Heard On The Street column.

- CNet reports Google (GOOG) offered Viacom (VIA) $592 million if the media giant agreed to license TV shows and films to YouTube. Details of the offer, made shortly after Google bought YouTube in 2006, were revealed in documents released by a Manhattan court where Viacom filed its $1 billion copyright lawsuit against Google and YouTube.

- “For a brief moment last fall, it looked as though the American housing sector might not be the persistent economic drag economists had feared,” the Economist’s Free Exchange blog says. “But the good times haven’t lasted.”

- Apple (AAPL) CEO Steve Jobs plans to deliver the keynote address at its Worldwide Developers Conference on June 7, but NYT Bits blogger Nick Bilton wonders how Jobs will wow the crowd, especially since many of his secrets have been revealed. “Product images and specs have leaked out of Apple before previous keynote presentations, but this time the amount of information was a relative gusher.”

- “With margin calls back on the radar screen for the first time since the financial crisis, it’s worth noting that margin debt has hit levels not seen since early in the crisis,” Brendan Conway writes at MarketBeat.

- Calculated Risk blogger Bill McBride delves deeper into yesterday’s existing home sales report and remains worried about increasing inventory and months-of-supply levels.

- Mounting tensions in the global financial system are evident in the increasing Libor rate. “The world’s big banks continue to grow leerier about lending to one another,” writes LA Times’ Tom Petruno. Three-month dollar Libor rate earlier highest level since July, though Petruno notes it remains well off levels seen during the financial-crisis in late 2008 when credit markets froze.

- Keep an eye on the huge shift from bullishness to bearishness throughout the last few weeks.

- The surging US dollar is “eerily reminiscent of the peak worries in the credit crisis when deflation appeared to be taking a death grip on the global economy,” the Pragmatic Capitalist says. “As asset prices decline and bond yields collapse this is a clear sign that inflation is not the near-term concern, but rather that the debt based deflationary trends continue to dominate global economic trends.”

- University of Oregon economics professor Mark Thoma isn’t on board with Yale professor Robert Shiller’s argument in a NYT op-ed that fears of double-dip recession could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Bigger economic shocks would seem “the more likely trigger” of double-dip, Thoma says. “Even more likely is an outbreak of extreme hawkishness causing us to pull back too fast on fiscal stimulus, and to raise interest rates too fast.”

- Turns out Palm’s sale to Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) last month wasn’t exactly a last-minute deal. Digital Daily blogger John Paczkowski points to a PALM SEC filing, which reveals the buyout process began in February and the company was in contact with 16 potential acquirers.

- HAMP April data shows program slowing down.

- The “shock and awe” effects of Europe’s big bailout package are already starting to fade, and the concern is that long-term viability is being sacrificed for short-term gains, Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian writes at FT’s Alphaville blog. So far, the package is just giving investors an escape hatch, without addressing the real issue: solvency.

- GM isn’t putting on the hard sell for an IPO.

- Reuters blogger Felix Salmon looks at how government bailouts affect moral hazard and the role they play in market volatility. “A lot of investors have made a lot of money from the moral-hazard trade over the past 15 years or so. When that trade comes to an end, expect the losses to be just as big, if not bigger.”

- Ryan Avent shows how the role the declining euro plays in the global economy.

- Though it’s still early for conclusive evidence, it appears Apple’s (AAPL) Mac sales haven’t been cannibalized by the iPad, Digital Daily blogger John Paczkowski says, citing research from Piper Jaffray.

- Jason Zweig looks at the debate over holding brokers to a higher standard.