Good year in 2010 for US stocks, not such good one for Byron Wien’s list of “top ten surprises.” As a strategist, and now Blackstone vice chair, He’s been doing this a long time. Doesn’t mean he’s getting any better at it, though.
By our count, he was completely wrong on eight of his predictions, mostly wrong on his No. 1 (GDP would grow at 5% real rate, unemployment would drop below 9%; S&P 500 operating earnings would come in above $80 — that looks safe.)
Big swing and a miss on the following:
- Fed would raise interest rates, with Fed funds rate at 2% by year end. We’ll be lucky if that one happens by 2012.
- Yield on 10-yr note would go to 5.5%. See above. Equally fanciful.
- S&P rallies to 1300, then falls below 1000 and ends year at 1115. Nice try. Not even close.
- Dollar rallies vs yen and euro, with EUR/USD dropping below $1.30. Briefly correct on that one, but didn’t last.
- Congress would pass bills providing loans and subsidies for new nuclear power plants. Didn’t happen.
- Democrats would only lose 20 House seats in November. Whoops.
- Civil unrest reaches crescendo in Iran, Ahmadinejad gets pushed out. Also didn’t happen.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 rises above 12000. Not quite. Continue reading…