Market Talk

After a big run-up in last week, putting equities back in bullish territory by some measures, stocks globally are taking a break today with the end of the quarter looming.

Asian stocks were slightly lower and Europe is little changed; S&P futures are up 1.50 points, DJ futures up 11.

February personal income and spending data are on the docket at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Meanwhile, US Treasurys are continuing their losing streak, which would be an eighth straight session of declines if they finish down again, with the 10-year yield just below 3.5%.

Oil is slightly lower, with Nymex crude edging below $105/barrel, and the euro is holding above $1.40.

US stocks are poised to take a breather, at least initially, after a three-day rebound that has seen equities erase early last week’s swoon, with index futures essentially flat.

“The coalition forces continue to patrol the skies over Libya and the markets continue to recover,” says Alastair McCaig of WorldSpreads.

Asian stocks were modestly higher except in Japan, where trading was closed Monday for a holiday and responded with a 4.4% jump overnight in the Nikkei.

Quiet on the US economic data front, though quarterly reports from the likes of Walgreen (WAG), Jefferies (JEF), Carnival (CCL) and Discover (DFS) come this morning.

Meanwhile, the dollar continues to lose ground after the ICE Dollar Index hit a 15-month low Monday, with the pound reaching 14-month highs this morning against the greenback.

S&P futures down 0.20, Dow futures up 12. Crude futures and 10-year US Treasurys edge lower. Oil at $102.94.

US stocks are spring-loaded for an early burst higher, goaded by big M&A news (AT&T’s $39B deal for T-Mobile), reports that Japan is gaining control over its nuclear plant crisis and rallying markets in Europe.

Chatty week for the Fed, with a host of speeches scheduled for the central bankers, while the data calendar is relatively thin. February existing home sales set for 10:00 a.m. ET, and new home sales due Wednesday. Other data include February durable goods on Thursday and a third look at 4Q GDP Friday.

Oil running higher, nearing $103/barrel. S&P futures up 14.80, Dow futures up 111. Ten-year note slides, yield at 3.33%.

US stock futures leaning slightly higher premarket, but not quite enough to suggest any rebound in the making.

Crude oil futures just a shade lower, not a material source of comfort with the price still hovering around $105/barrel. No top-tier economic data due, so geopolitics, action in oil and EUR/USD will likely be the key steering winds for stocks today.

Asian stocks generally higher overnight, while European markets currently mixed to lower. Euro giving back gains, flirts with slipping back below $1.39.

S&P futures down 0.40, DJ futures down 1. Ten-year note lower, yield at 3.51%. Nymex crude at $105.05.

Impact of rising oil prices seemed to rattle investors enough to send US stocks lower Friday, but somehow another two bucks added on to crude this morning — taking it to well above $106/barrel — appears to be little cause for concern.

Figure that one out.

Mood here may be enhanced by advances in European stock markets, and euro dashing above $1.40, though it’s hard to find a substantive reason behind Europe’s gains. Moody’s cut Greece’s credit rating another three notches.

Stocks may bounce at the open, but gains will be tested if oil continues its advance. Thin week for economic data, January consumer credit due at 3:00 p.m. ET.

S&P futures up 0.20, DJ futures up 4. Ten-year note lower, yield at 3.53%. Crude futures up 2% at $106.50, Brent futures up 1.6% at $177.77.

First-day-of-the-month magic for US stocks was a no-show yesterday, the spell broken for the first time since July. Angst over rising oil/geopolitical turmoil seemed to be the most influential force Tuesday, and selloff rippled into Asia overnight with Japan’s Nikkei down 2.4%, largest percentage drop since late August.

European stocks in the red, crude futures still motoring higher, but premarket US stock futures tilt higher, a posture similar to this time yesterday.

ADP’s estimate on Feb private payrolls due at 8:15 a.m. ET; Bernanke goes back to the Hill this morning; Fed’s Beige Book due at 2:00 p.m.

S&P futures up 2.70, DJ futures up 19. Ten-year slightly lower, yield at 3.44%. Nymex crude up slightly at $99.94, Brent down slightly at $115.16.

For more than a year, US stocks have had a propensity for solid gains on the first day of the month. Modestly higher premarket futures suggest bulls intend to keep that pattern intact, but it may be more of a chore today, as oil rises again amid ongoing Mideast/North African strife.

Bernanke goes to the Hill this morning to speak with senators about the economy, an event that typically makes for some interesting theater but otherwise light on insight.

February ISM manufacturing index and January construction spending both due at 10:00 a.m ET. February auto sales also due today.

Futures were looking sharper two hours ago. S&P futures up 3.50, Dow futures up 27. Ten-year note down, yield at 3.45%. Crude futures up 1% at $97.93.

The premarket picture for US stocks looks similar to yesterday’s early stance, with futures sitting moderately lower following a mixed session for Asian markets and European stocks currently slumping.

While Cisco’s earnings and outlook colored yesterday’s mood, unrest in Egypt is an influence this morning. The protests have brought some volatility to stock markets lately, but investors generally haven’t shown much concern over the situation.

December trade deficit due at 8:30 a.m. ET; Reuters/Univ of Michigan preliminary gauge on February consumer sentiment comes out at 9:55 a.m.

S&P futures down 4.75, DJ futures down 27. Ten-year note higher, yield at 3.67%.

The G-20 gathering does nothing to disturb the US dollar’s downtrend, as finance ministers issue a typically vague pronouncement to avoid competitive currency devaluation. File this under “watch what they do, not what they say,” folks.

By now, everyone should know the drill — USD down sharply, stocks, gold, oil and a host of other commodity prices run higher. September existing home sales due at 10:00 a.m. ET; Dallas Fed’s October manufacturing outlook survey due at 10:30 a.m. Texas Instruments reports 3Q results after the close.

US dollar index recently down 0.8% at 76.87, euro at $1.4036. S&P futures up 7.50; Dow futures up 59. Ten-year note also higher, yield at 2.53%.

Stocks fly high around the globe, with markets comforted by the notion that central banks are keen to keep the world awash in cash. It’s a perilous path, this printing money, but for now investors seem happy to ignore the longer-term consequences of this short-term fix.

Because there’s no more succinct summary of the current MO than the Journal’s headline at the top of page one this morning: Central Banks Open Spigots.

US dollar index has arrested its decline, currently looking mostly flat; euro pulls back from overnight highs teasing $1.39, recently at $1.382. Only notable data is ADP’s reading on September private payrolls at 8:15 a.m. Gold a little higher at $1,346/oz after going bananas yesterday, crude down a hair.

Stock futures subdued, S&P’s up 4.20, DJ futures up 42. Ten-year note higher, yield at 2.43%.