- Big Picture blogger Barry Ritholtz addresses the ongoing inflation/deflation debate. “Deflation is a fact. It is happening now, it is real, and we see it in the actual data,” he says. But the first hint of inflation will come from the bid-to-cover ratio on Treasury bond auctions. “That will be your early inflation warning. But now? It’s nowhere in sight.”
- Initial jobless claims are still “stubbornly high” at 457,000, Miller Tabak’s Peter Boockvar says. “GM not shutting auto plants as is typical this time of the year is still a distortion but it is surprising that claims aren’t lower because of it,” he says. “Thus current levels still remain a concern at this stage of an economic recovery.”
- And what’s worse, jobless claims have essentially been stuck in neutral during the last eight months, The Economist’s Free Exchange blog notes. “Claims are stuck at an historically high level. Perhaps that merely reflects some new structural dynamic in the labor market, but it mainly seems suggestive of continued economic weakness.”
- While the advertising industry was crushed during the financial crisis, recent signs have pointed to a comeback. “But it’s not back everywhere. And it’s probably not as strong as you think it is,” MediaMemo blogger Peter Kafka cautions.
- RIMM’s rumored new operating system “should have released years ago, one that should give its devices a bit more appeal in a market increasingly enamored of super-smartphones,” Digital daily blogger John Paczkowski says. “So if the 9800 is announced next week along with a rumored mid-August ship date, RIM will have taken its first big step in addressing the competitive issues that are tarnishing its growth prospects.”
- Moody’s, S&P and Fitch have recently refused to allow their ratings to be used in bond registration statements, fearing they’ll be exposed to new liability from the financial reform legislation. “You can file this one under D for Despicable,” Joshua Brown writes at The Reformed Broker. “Let me put this in schoolyard terms: The ratings agencies are playing chicken against the US economy. The message is to insulate them from responsibility or else they’re taking their marbles and going home.”
- Investing is “an uphill climb against human nature to be bullish when conditions are poor,” the Dorsey Wright Money Management blog says. “To buy when the outlook is dim takes a real leap of faith — and a steadfast optimism that things will improve over time. When things seem like they can’t get any worse, it just might be because they really can’t get any worse–and are about to get better.”
- Payrolls typically lag durables by four months. “Now, the year-over-year change in durables probably peaked a couple of months ago at 19%,” Invictus writes at The Big Picture, noting comps are going to start getting harder to beat. “I fear the hour is growing late and we’re rapidly running out of time as the labor market continues to struggle. I see nothing stimulative on the horizon as far as employment goes.”
- Avis goes to war for Dollar Thirfty. NYT’s Deal Professor Steven Davidoff has the details.
- “Erasing years of academic progress, state education officials acknowledged that hundreds of thousands of children had been misled into believing they were proficient in English and math, when in fact they were not,” WSJ says.
