Fear Trade

The Weakness Stakes

Posted by Paul Vigna on May 14, 2010
Economy, Markets / Comments Off

horse-raceWe don’t know who’s going to win this weekend’s Preakness Stakes, but in honor of that storied race, we’ve imagined a different race, taking place right now. Call it the Weakness Stakes.

AND THEY’RE OFF!

It’s Eurobail followed by Risk Trade and French Pride. Eurobail, Risk Trade, French Pride. Then it’s Grecian Burn, Average Joe and Helicopter Ben. Teutonic Beast, Vampire Squid, Fear Trade and Moral Hazard bringing up the rear.

Eurobail, Risk Trade and French Pride. Eurobail and Risk Trade running almost neck and neck. Eurobail in fact looks like he’s pulling Risk Trade by the nose.

Grecian Burn’s quickly falling back, he’s going to have a hard time keeping up with this pace.

Helicopter Ben’s moving up on the inside, Ben trying to keep his movements hidden, not wanting to commit too early, but we’re sure he’s going to do something unexpected.

Fear Trade still bringing up the rear, but he doesn’t seem to mind. Looks like he’s happy to let the field wear itself out. Eurobail, French Pride, Risk Trade.

Around the far turn it’s Risk Trade, Eurobail and Helicopter Ben. Vampire Squid keeping pace on the outside, waiting to make his move. It’s like he knows something. Moral Hazard moving steadily through the field with a vengeance.

And here comes Average Joe! Average Joe’s giving it everything he’s got! He’s moving up on the outside looking in. Past Helicopter Ben. Passing Risk Trade. Looking to catch up to French Pride. He’s almost there, neck and neck, he’s got the leader in sight!

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Fear Trade May Be Winding Around A New Asset

Posted by Paul Vigna on May 26, 2009
Economy / 2 Comments

Does it seem like there was some kind of fundamental shift in investor perceptions last week, after S&P warned the UK about its finances (and, some felt, by extension, the US), or were investors just taking some profits off the table while the so-called fear trade was unwinding?

That’s the dilemma for investors right now. And given everything that’s happened the last two years, it’s not a question to be taken lightly. (We’re not financial advisers, but if you’re waiting to see how low rates will get before refinancing, now might not be the worst time to pull that trigger.)

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