Corn

We Need Some Adults in Here

Posted by Kevin Kingsbury on April 08, 2011
Commodities, Economy, Federal Reserve, Markets / Comments Off

Corn’s at an all-time high, supposedly on surging demand.

But just remember that whatever such increases there are, it’s primarily not going into people’s bellies, but their gas tanks just as crude oil is reliving its 2008 superspike.

Haven’t we seen this movie before?

We’ve been bellowing (and we’re not totally alone on this, as the Bank of Japan’s recent report shows) about how QE has been cascading untold liquidity into the financial markets, allowing for stocks to nearly double the past two years and commodities to surge toward, or past, their 2008 peaks. Much of the thanks for that can go to the nation’s central planners bankers, and the free-money bonanza of the last decade.

We’ve long plowed the road here of how the Federal Reserve helped goose the credit markets that allowed for dodgy borrowers to get dodgy mortgages. Then even-dodgier securities were created for “sophisticated” investors looking for the next best thing.

But the half-wits in Congress — dithering over how to cut a few billion here, a few billion there as shut down of the US government looms — have commodity-spike blame as well. Beyond refusing to enact trade deals that would boost US exports and potentially help develop new supplies of commodities in those markets, we get things like farm subsidies that incentivize not raising crops or animals and laws requiring ethanol — largely developed from corn — to be added to gasoline while its benefits are in question.

So until we get enough grown-ups on Capitol Hill and in the halls of the Federal Reserve able to bring about responsible policy, the likes of Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher will seemingly just be playing the role of graveyard whistlers or token dissidents while crony capitalism lives on and fans the flames of inflation.

Hopefully it’s not like the 1970s. Not like I would remember, being a tyke back in those days. But there’s no need for me to get first-hand experience, thank you.

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Commodities Sizzle

Posted by John Shipman on December 21, 2010
Dollar, Economic Indicators, Economy, Federal Reserve, Markets, Stocks / 1 Comment

Yesterday we took issue with St Louis Fed President James Bullard’s assertion during a CNBC interview that there was no evidence that QE2 is a factor in jacked-up commodities prices, though he conceded that their relationship should be studied.

Well, study this, Mr. Bullard: today US corn futures close at their highest level since July 2008 at $6.02 a bushel. Nymex Feb crude futures hit their highest close since October 2008, at $89.82 a barrel, and up 6.8% this month. Nymex heating oil at a fresh 2010 high at $2.5164 a gallon. Cotton hits a fresh post-Civil War (yes, that Civil War) high at $1.59 a pound. Comex copper futures settled at an all-time record high at $4.276 a pound.

Now, we’re not saying it’s all because of QE2 and no influence from supply/demand, China, whoever, but come on. All of these different commodities hitting fresh or all-time highs simultaneously?

Meanwhile, an asset class that Fed officials admitted QE2 was, in part, aimed at — stocks — also rose today to fresh two-year highs.

Not a coincidence. Study complete. Good luck at the gasoline pump or grocery store, citizens.

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A Bruising August for Stocks

Posted by Paul Vigna on August 31, 2010
Dow Jones Industrials, Economy, Markets, S&P 500 / 1 Comment

August is lining up to be the worst since 2001 for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the worst August in 12 years for the Russell 2000. That performance is setting a lot of people on edge heading into September, which is traditionally the market’s worst month.

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