Market Talk

We hear there's work to be had.

Ouch.

That was our initial reaction to ADP’s March jobs report, which had to send shivers down the spines of all those recovery pushers. But delving a little deeper into the details suggests the data may not be as bad as originally interpreted.

ADP’s private-sector report showed the economy lost 23,000 jobs this month, much worse than the 50,000 gain economists were expecting. February’s decline was also revised downward to 24,000 from 20,000.

That’s a stark contrast to the robust turnaround economists are expecting in Friday’s monthly jobs report. Consensus calling for 200,000 jobs added in March after 36,000 jobs were lost last month. And some folks wouldn’t be surprised if the economy added 300,000 or 400,000 jobs this month.

Keep in mind, though, that Friday’s number will include government workers, while the ADP report doesn’t. And the Labor Department’s data will get an additional boost from the bad weather that plagued February’s report.

Even ADP tries to hedge its own estimate, blatantly saying its numbers don’t include any weather rebound from February or the federal hiring for the Census.

“For both these reasons, it is reasonable to expect that Friday’s employment figure from the BLS will be stronger than today’s estimate,” ADP says.

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Remember that thing we talked about - and for God's sake, man, don't let the press find out.

There are two conspiracy theories floating around getting a lot of attention: the assertion by Charles Biderman from TrimTabs that the government is propping up stock prices, and the notion put forth by Sprott Asset Management that the funding the federal budget has become one giant ponzi scheme.

Now, these aren’t just your usual tin-foil hat types talking here, and the fact that these claims are gaining traction shows that at the least, there’s a portion of the citizenry that just isn’t buying the official story line.

They are sort of reductio ad absurdum arguments, and one problem with them is that don’t actually make the case that would prove their point; rather, they draw their conclusions as the only possible explanation, given a lack of alternate conclusions.

Still, they raise troubling questions about the actual strength and durability of the economic recovery.

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