Market Talk

- Deal-making has been coming back, with another spate of deals and potential deals announced yesterday, but with one notable difference, John Curran writes at Time’s Curious Capitalist blog. “The big difference is, this merger-fest probably won’t result in higher stock prices.”

- “The Fed may need to do something to shock markets into believing that it is serious about reversing the decline in (inflation) expectations,” Ryan Avent notes at The Economist’s Free Exchange blog. “Without a firm commitment to an eye-popping number, markets may simply believe that the Fed will pull the plug on the purchases before the job is done — a belief that will undermine the impact of the purchases.”

- “What’s the bear case on QE2?” ponders Minyanville’s Todd Harrison. “Think Rocky Balboa at the end of the first movie; there ain’t gonna be no rematch, and there ain’t gonna be no QE3,” Harrison notes. “That’s the risk for policymakers. It’s the next to last bullet (and you know where the last one is pointed).”

- Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) maintains “emulating Apple is not part of our strategy,” but it wouldn’t hurt H-P to focus on excellence in user experience, Digital Daily blogger John Paczkowski says. “Because if it nails that and then ‘doubles down’ on webOS as promised, we could see some very interesting things coming out of H-P in the months ahead.”

- Apple shares dropped as much as 5.6% Tuesday before closing down 1.5%. Rumors swirled in the morning that Apple COO Tim Cook could become the new Hewlett-Packard chief. But that rumor was quickly dismissed.

- CNet’s Software Interrupted blog points out that Google (GOOG) has acquired 23 companies so far this year, compared with none for Microsoft (MSFT). That means MSFT, already fighting what many consider a losing battle in search, is also losing out in top start-up technologies like mobile and social networking, as well as foregoing some of the best talent available.

- To the delight of nerds across the country, it turns out that Apple’s (AAPL) new Apple TV can be hacked just like an iPhone, iPad and iPod Touch, a popular group of hackers announced last night on their blog. The group, known as the “Dev-Team,” have for the past few years been finding ways to run unauthorized software on AAPL’s popular mobile devices.

- The churn among Yahoo’s (YHOO) executive ranks continues, as Jimmy Pitaro, VP of Media, is expected to leave the company soon, reports All Things D blogger Kara Swisher. “Adding Pitaro to the pile will only increase pressure on [CEO Carol] Bartz…to show investors that Yahoo has a clear plan amidst the executive turmoil.”

- AOL goes on a spending spree, scooping up TechCrunch, one of the most influential blogs in Silicon Valley, as well as Web video-syndication company 5min Media.

- Two wins later, Jason Gay says its time for NY Jets QB Mark Sanchez to give up his blanky.

- Consumer credit falls for fourth straight month. “There’s absolutely nothing encouraging about these numbers from a standpoint of ‘recovery,’” Karl Denninger writes. Perhaps more disturbing is the negative revisions. “They effectively erased the alleged ‘improvement’ in the rate of decline that was allegedly ‘reported’ last month.”

- Paul Krugman wants to know what went wrong as high unemployment continues to plague the economy. “It’s now obvious that the stimulus was much too small; yet there’s virtually no chance of getting additional measures out of Congress,” Krugman says. “From a strictly economic point of view, we could still fix this: a second big stimulus, plus much more aggressive Fed policy,” he adds. But politically, we’re stuck…I’d like to say something uplifting here; but right now I’m feeling pretty bleak.”

- Bank lobbyists successfully watered down financial reform, Simon Johnson writes, except for one key aspect: the Kanjorski Amendment. The amendment “gives federal regulators the power and the responsibility to limit the activities or even break up big banks if they pose a ‘grave risk’ to the financial system,” Johnson says. “The debate on big banks and the dangers they pose is far from over.”

- Apple’s (AAPL) next release of its Apple TV set-top box will let viewers watch individual TV episodes for 99c, according to the NewTeeVee blog. In a move reminiscent of how AAPL launched what became the world’s biggest music retailer, it’s apparently trying to get TV programmers to allow episode rentals for less than the current $1.99 or $2.99 fees.

- The housing bust, which first hit the working class, has made its way up the ranks and now is hitting the affluent pretty hard. About one in seven homeowners with loans of more than a million dollars are seriously delinquent, NYT reports, while only one in 12 mortgages under $1M are delinquent. The “message here is that high income borrowers aren’t taking the Freddie/Fannie/bank bluster about strategic defaults seriously,” Yves Smith says.

- Adobe’s (ADBE) next version of Flash will support 3D graphics, if the session lineup for the company’s MAX 2010 conference is any indication. The session, flagged in a CNet post, promises “a deep dive into the next-generation 3D API coming in a future version of Flash Player.”

- Percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages has spiked up to 28% amid this week’s big rally, Bespoke Investment Group reports. “For bulls, this means there could be a long way to go before the rally runs out of steam. For bears, this shows that even after a pretty big rally, breadth remains rather weak.”

- Sure the New York Stock Exchange is flying both the Dutch and Spanish flags, but don’t be fooled by the alleged display of World Cup nonpartisanship. NYSE CEO Duncan Niederauer asked exchange employees to wear orange in support of colleagues in The Netherlands (where NYSE operates an exchange) before Sunday’s final with Spain, says spokesman Ray Pellecchia, emphasizing in a blog post that his own blue-and-orange tie is “NOT a Mets tie.”

- Deflation worries are still prevalent. “Debate rages about whether the trend is a warning sign for the economy or merely statistical noise,” James Picerno notes at The Capital Spectator. “To be fair, outright deflation isn’t here yet, nor is it certain (or even likely) that it’ll turn up.” But the risk remains. “And with the outlook for a jobless recovery looming, this is no time to soft pedal the D risk.”

- Reuters blogger Felix Salmon is pessimistic that there’s an easy solution to the long-term unemployment issue plaguing the US. “Maybe unemployment is simply a problem to which there is no good medium-term solution, let alone any short-term fix,” he says. “Certainly the government can’t directly employ the unemployed, and although I’m a big fan of arts subsidies as a way of creating jobs, that kind of thing is only ever going to have a marginal effect.”

- Several big name hedge-fund managers are placing bullish bets on Citi (C) and Bank of America (BAC). “Paulson, Soros, Falcone, Tepper, Ackman, Ainslie, Loeb — you name it, they own one or the other…or both,” Joshua Brown writes at The Reformed Broker. “And they own them in size.” But why the sudden interest?

- Goldman Sachs (GS) may be on the verge of resolving SEC’s fraud charge by agreeing to a settlement worth hundreds of millions of dollars, according to FT. But FusionIQ CEO Barry Ritholtz is still perplexed why GS chose to fight this charge in the first place. “Even if GS were to prevail in court, they have already lost. The reputational damage is already measured in billions of dollars, and will last years if not decades.”

- Furious decline in newspaper ad sales eased in 1Q, but struggling industry still isn’t showing signs of rebounding. “The less-awful sales in the first months of this year gave publishers the gift of a bit more time to fundamentally reposition their businesses,” Newsosaur blogger Alan Mutter says. “But there is nothing in the first-quarter numbers to suggest that the storm for newspapers has blown over.”

- S&P 500 has averaged a 0.12% gain on the Friday before Memorial Day since 1971, with positive returns coming 59% of the time, Bespoke Investment Group reports. But the performance hasn’t been so hot recently, with the index averaging a 0.28% decline throughout the last 10 years, firm notes. And the measure has dropped more than 1% on three instances in last decade.

- Warren Buffett’s testimony next week before FCIC is subpoena-driven, writes Fortune senior editor-at-large Carol Loomis, a pal of the Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA BRKB) chairman.

- FASB publishes proposal that would overhaul how companies value many assets and liabilities they hold. “Tremble US financial institutions, for FASB is about to fair value your assets,” FT’s Alphaville says.

- There are still calls for more (yes, more) government spending. “The long-term deficit needs attention, but right now it’s critical for government to spend,” says former labor secretary Robert Reich. “Otherwise we have no hope of getting free of the gravitational pull of this recession.”

- If enough tech giants go after a market, will it eventually catch on? Just a week after Google unveiled details of Google TV, Engadget reports Apple (AAPL) will take another crack at its three-year-old Apple TV product. But as MarketWatch’s John Dvorak pointed out in a column last week, it may be a hard slog, even for the biggest of behemoths.

- “The Great Recession is over, and the Great Transition is here,” James Picerno writes. In theory, distinguishing between the two is a piece of cake. In practice, reading the tea leaves is going to get complicated at times.”

- The Apple faithful struggle figuring out the best way to carry around the iPad. Aw, poor fanboys, such a conundrum – what are they gonna do??