Market Talk

- Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone shipped 8.7 million iPhones in 4Q, almost double the year-earlier figure and 18% higher than previous quarter’s gains. Impressive, except for the fact that the device’s market share actually slipped a bit from previous quarter. But don’t read too much into the decline, as claiming 16.6% of a market  it had no presence in three years ago is “astonishing,” Digital Daily blogger John Paczkowski says.

- As controversy swirls around Tim Geithner and his tenure as Treasury secretary, former IMF chief economist Simon Johnson offers a plausible successor: Tom Hoenig. He’s been a “beacon of clarity” throughout the past year and would appeal to both “sensible” Democrats and Republicans, Johnson says.

- AOL expected to report 4Q results tomorrow morning, marking first quarterly report since becoming newly independent company in mid-December. Shares are essentially unchanged since going public, reflecting investors’ “widespread wait-and-see attitude,” BoomTown blogger Kara Swisher says.

- There’s no way around the sense that President Obama’s budget proposal is “a tremendous comedown from the hopes of a year ago,” Paul Krugman writes at Conscience of a Liberal. “What we’re witnessing is an awesome national failure.”

- Here’s a deep concern plaguing Gannett (GCI): steep EBITDA decline throughout last few years suggests publisher is “running out of ways to trim expenses as ad sales decline,” Newsosaur blogger Alan Mutter says.

- Google’s (GOOG) expanding its research agenda, devoting $5.7 million to a dozen research projects. Money’s earmarked for four areas: machine learning, the use of mobile phones as data collection devices, energy efficiency in computing and privacy.

- TechCrunch says Google already has Apple’s iPad in its sights. Blog points to a series of photo mock-ups showing what Google’s Chrome operating system might look like on a tablet form factor.

- YouTube’s first attempt at charging customers to watch Web video wasn’t exactly a roaring success, netting about $10,700. But YouTube’s payoff isn’t just in cash. “The good news: some people paid up,” MediaMemo blogger Peter Kafka says. “And from YouTube’s perspective, that’s all that matters.”

- Amazon (AMZN) shares continue dropping in aftermath of a dispute with major book publisher about e-book prices as well as the prospect of increasing competition from Apple’s iPad. “What I will say is that every schoolboy learns that you sell the Christmas plans before Christmas, not in January,” Josh Brown writes at The Reformed Broker. “Amazon’s a classic example of why.”

- And the battle between Amazon and Macmillion is still raging, NYT’s Bits blog reports, as some, but not all, titles have been creeping back onto Amazon’s site.

- Paul Volcker continues pushing for bank limits. He said large commercial banks engaging in proprietary trading or private-investment activity are creating “strong conflicts of interest” and should be restricted.

So NY Fed claims then-president Tim Geithner had nothing to do with decisions to limit AIG disclosures in 2008. Should make for an interesting congressional testimony later this month.

A dead-cat bounce for jobs? “It is likely that many companies cut back too much, particularly last winter, and are approaching a time when they will have to start hiring to meet even a low level of demand,” NYT’s Floyd Norris says.

Corporate insiders continue to heavily sell their own shares. “Much like Main Street, corporate insiders aren’t feeling or seeing the impacts of the recovery that have been so widely reported,” the Pragmatic Capitalist says. “This is one more sign that leaves us skeptical of the new secular bull market theory.”

Marginal new-high pattern for stocks may last for some time “followed by abrupt and often steep losses virtually out of nowhere,” John Hussman says. “Given this context, the next few months are likely to be extremely important.”

AOL’s “corporate slim-down” enters its next phase. MediaMemo blogger Peter Kafka says AOL is firing more than 1,000 employees.

Friday’s weak jobs report adds fuel to pessmists’ fire, Paul Krugman says.

Google’s lack of customer support for Nexus One needs to be addressed.

Hard to ignore rising commodity prices.

The never-ending Bank of America/Merrill Lynch drama continues. SEC’s seeking permission to add new charges against BofA for failing to disclose Merrill Lynch’s “extraordinary losses” in time for shareholder vote on its takeover.

Obama’s considering levying a fee on banks to recoup taxpayer funds spent to rescue the financial sector and auto companies.

Hey, maybe they'll buy back the naming rights some day, too.

Yesterday I opined that the AOL death-watch could begin as early as today. It’s hard for me to see what this company is going to do to secure a future for itself.

Yes, it is an actual, live business that has, most importantly, a source of cash flow. But its biggest revenue stream is its ISP service, and that has a future about as bright as a Tiger Woods endorsement deal.

Investors haven’t been too keen on the stock either, which has gone nowhere in its one day plus of trading. But might the Street actually be undervaluing AOL?

Continue reading…

Despite the fact that stocks are up and most people are attributing the rise to today’s weekly jobless claims numbers, we don’t think they’re very good, and when you look at the big picture, there are a lot of people out there who are not being given a chance to contribute to the economy, which has a wide range of implications.

Today on Tomorrow’s News Today, we discuss jobless claims, AOL’s layoffs and the Philly Fed report.