Market Talk

Lackluster earnings results from Google last night and BofA this morning don’t bother investors much, as US stocks look to open generally flat to a shade lower, based on indications from equity futures.

Markets currently modestly higher in Europe, while stocks were mostly lower in Asia overnight. We’ll get some sense of how much higher producer prices are feeding through to consumers with release of March CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET.

New York Fed’s April Empire State manufacturing survey also set for 8:30 a.m.; March industrial production & capacity utilization due at 9:15 a.m.; and Thomson Reuters/Univ of Michigan prelim April consumer sentiment at 9:55 a.m.

S&P futures down 3.60, DJ futures down 34. Ten-year note higher, yield at 3.47%. Crude floating around the $108/barrel mark.

Meanwhile, our colleague Dave Benoit sums up all the news surrounding Bank of America this morning:

Bank of America (BAC) announces a whole lot of news all at once this morning. A quick summation: $2 billion in earnings, at 17c a share misses expectations of 27c a share. But revenue beats. Deposit-group and investment-bank earnings are both down from year ago, the latter sharply from strong 2010. And CFO Chuck Noski is out, moving to a vice chairman role in a company with a separate chairman and CEO already. He’ll be replaced by chief risk officer Bruce Thompson. Chief counsel is also changed. The 2010 year of rebuilding appears to be continuing into 2011. BAC is paring bigger premarket losses minutes earlier, with shares now up 0.8% at $13.23.

First, dear readers, an apology. We’ve been pretty consumed with the live launch of the Markets Hub, and that combined with our regular job, the Market Talk service for the Newswires, plus features like The Upshot, has pretty much given us no time lately to write for this blog.

But, we do have a post today, or rather, a cross post, of something I wrote for the MarketBeat blog over at WSJ.com. And, look, if you’re a regular reader of this blog, and like the mix of opinion and analysis we’ve offered here, I’d recommend you start watching the Markets Hub, live daily at 10:30 a.m. on wsj.com.

Here’s the post:

How many more body blows can the global economy absorb? Three more? Two? One?

Japan’s economic recovery is “a thing of the past,” at least according to Japan’s Cabinet Office, which said so in its monthly report. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, given what the Japanese have endured over the past month, and officials are hopeful that the economy can regain its footing by the end of the year.

The combined earthquake/tsunami/nuclear crisis is more than most nations could handle, and we hope for nothing but the best for the Japanese people. But when the world’s third largest economy sees its economy stall, it should be a red flag for everybody.

There are other red flags, too. The U.S. economy limped into the end of the first quarter, as consumers contended with flat wages (should they be lucky enough to have wages at all) and rising prices.

Continue reading…

Corn’s at an all-time high, supposedly on surging demand.

But just remember that whatever such increases there are, it’s primarily not going into people’s bellies, but their gas tanks just as crude oil is reliving its 2008 superspike.

Haven’t we seen this movie before?

We’ve been bellowing (and we’re not totally alone on this, as the Bank of Japan’s recent report shows) about how QE has been cascading untold liquidity into the financial markets, allowing for stocks to nearly double the past two years and commodities to surge toward, or past, their 2008 peaks. Much of the thanks for that can go to the nation’s central planners bankers, and the free-money bonanza of the last decade.

We’ve long plowed the road here of how the Federal Reserve helped goose the credit markets that allowed for dodgy borrowers to get dodgy mortgages. Then even-dodgier securities were created for “sophisticated” investors looking for the next best thing.

But the half-wits in Congress — dithering over how to cut a few billion here, a few billion there as shut down of the US government looms — have commodity-spike blame as well. Beyond refusing to enact trade deals that would boost US exports and potentially help develop new supplies of commodities in those markets, we get things like farm subsidies that incentivize not raising crops or animals and laws requiring ethanol — largely developed from corn — to be added to gasoline while its benefits are in question.

So until we get enough grown-ups on Capitol Hill and in the halls of the Federal Reserve able to bring about responsible policy, the likes of Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher will seemingly just be playing the role of graveyard whistlers or token dissidents while crony capitalism lives on and fans the flames of inflation.

Hopefully it’s not like the 1970s. Not like I would remember, being a tyke back in those days. But there’s no need for me to get first-hand experience, thank you.

Stocks end lower, but reclaim most of the ground lost after mid-morning word of a strong aftershock quake in Japan.

Quake headlines and tsunami warning send a chill through a market that’s grown rather blase lately toward various pockets of global upheaval (Mideast/North Africa; Japan disaster; Eurozone debt problems). Despite the bump in volatility, trading volume remains anemic.

Industrials, financials and utilities among the weakest sectors; energy stocks finish higher as Nymex crude tops $110.00/barrel, to its highest settle since Sept 2008. Gold settles at fresh Comex high of $1,458.50/oz; silver hits fresh 31-yr high.

DJIA slips 17.26 to 12409.49, and Nasdaq Comp edges 3.68 lower to 2796.14. S&P 500 falls 2.03 to 1333.51.

Latest aftershock doesn’t appear to have done too much additional damage, but rapid, sharp plummet on initial quake/tsunami warning headlines may’ve put some fear back into a market that’s had an impressive ability to shake off troubling news.

Abundant liquidity has nurtured the risk trade, building complacency amid a hazardous backdrop as everyone thinks they can get out before the stampede begins. After glimpsing that hair trigger this morning, looks as if some risk-takers may have seen enough.

There’s a certain symmetry in global markets this morning – best described as flat.

Little movement in Asian stocks overnight, European markets are just a shade lower, oil nearly unchanged, hovering near $109/barrel and US stock futures point toward a muted open.

ECB as expected hikes rates to 1.25% from 1%, though focus will be on Trichet’s comments during Q&A after 8:30 a.m. ET. Portugal bailout discussions/headlines may color the mood as well.

Weekly jobless claims due at 8:30 a.m.; Fed releases February consumer credit numbers at 3:00 p.m. Retailers report March chain-store sales throughout the morning.

S&P futures up 3.10, DJ futures up 24. Ten-year note yield up a bit at 3.57%.

US stocks rise, even after Portugal comes out and says it’ll be the third European nation to seek an international bailout.

DJIA rises 33 (0.3%) to 12427; yes, it’s another fresh multi-year high, S&P 500 gains 3 (0.2%) to 1336, Nasdaq Comp adds 9 (0.3%) to 2799.82. Volume’s a bit weak.

There wasn’t much in the way of hard news most of the day, but that serves bulls just fine. They’re buying just about everything. Gold hits a fresh record. Crude hits a fresh multi-year high. Even cotton’s rebounded.

Market shows little initial reaction to Portugal’s admission that it will follow Greece and Ireland in seeking a bailout. It can’t be a good thing that a third European nation is seeking international help because it can’t handle its problems on its own. But the even bigger issue is that everybody, and we mean ev-ree-bo-dee, is already looking past Portugal to its neighbor on the Iberian Peninsula — Spain.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Comp continues to flirt with the 2800 level. Our colleague, Tomi Kilgore, penned the following missive:

The fifth time wasn’t the charm for the Nasdaq Composite. Including today, the index has traded above 2800 intraday for the third time in four sessions, and the fifth time since Feb. 22, without closing above it. The Nasdaq ended up 8.63 at 2799.82, off an intraday high of 2815.55. Even if 2800 is cleared, bulls have to contend with nearby resistance within the gap in the charts between the Feb. 18 low and the Feb. 22 high (2808-2824), followed by the Feb. 18 high of 2840.41. Meanwhile, support starts at 2750-2765, which includes the gap between the March 29 high and March 30 low and the 50-day moving average.

Compliments to the Bank of Japan, for keeping it real.

While the Federal Reserve continues to pretend its easy money policies aren’t juicing commodity markets, the BoJ isn’t afraid to acknowledge the obvious. Colleague Kevin Kingsbury alerted us to this commentary issued by the BoJ last week titled: “Recent Surge in Global Commodity Prices – Impact of financialization of commodities and globally accomodative monetary conditions.”

And if anyone knows a thing or two about accommodative monetary conditions, it’s Japan.

The report certainly gives credit to global economic growth for pushing up commodities, but it also says “speculative investment flows into commodity markets have amplified the intensity of the price surge.”

Here’s a sentence from the summary that should have Bernanke, Dudley and other deniers at the Fed turning crimson: “Furthermore, globally accommodative monetary conditions have played an important role in the surge in commodity prices, both by stimulating physical demand for commodities and driving more investment flows into financialized commodity markets.”

A dose of cautionary comments on three things that seem to only go up lately: the euro, stocks and corporate earnings.

First on the euro, which surged through $1.43 today its highest level vs USD since January 2010, and looks as if it’s left any and all concerns about sovereign debt in the dust.

Nomura says in a report that it’s too early for the euro to shed that risk. “The uncertainties about the economic outlook, debt dynamics, and the political framework around managing sovereign insolvency are simply too great,” firm says.

It estimates “a debt restructuring isolated to Greece/Ireland/Portugal would trigger direct and indirect losses around $240bn for core Eurozone banks, while bank losses would rise to $480bn in a restructuring including Spain.” German banks have the largest exposure to the periphery, Nomura says, with estimated losses of $185B in a restructuring scenario involving Spain.

Implied risk premium on the euro “has compressed significantly since January,” firm says, as the single currency “decoupled from sovereign risk.” That process “has probably run too far at this point: a persistent risk premium is still needed.”

On to stocks and some thoughts from BofA Merrill small-cap strategist Steve DeSanctis. He points out that weaker economic news, higher energy prices and disaster in Japan tripped up stocks in early March, but a “liquidity driven rebound” has put the Russell 2000 within 1% of its all-time high.

“Volatility came tumbling down despite the fact that none of the earlier concerns…have been resolved,” he writes, and small caps “are now very close to the full year’s return we have been expecting.” DeSanctis says he’s been “taken back by the strength of the overall equity market and in small caps in particular given the economic backdrop and where absolute and relative valuations stand,” and thinks 1Q earnings estimates are too high. Continue reading…

Is the stock market rising on strong fundamentals, or strong liquidity? We get into that debate today, and we were lucky enough to have best-selling author John Mauldin on to help us get to the heart of it.

Based on premarket futures, US stocks on track to run higher when regular trading gets underway as investors here watch a surging euro and rising European stocks.

Rally in Europe said to be pinned on hopes for the economy as ECB is expected to hike rates tomorrow to corral inflation. Solid German manufacturing data out today, but UK manufacturing wasn’t so hot. Seems basis for rally is a bit flimsy, particularly as a teetering Portugal had to pay an average of more than 5.1% on six-month T-bills in its auction today vs 2.98% a month ago.

Here in the U.S., Chicago Fed’s Midwest manufacturing index hit the tape at 8:30 a.m., and showed some improvement. The bank’s Midwest Manufacturing Index rose 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted 83.3 in February from a revised 82.2 in January, with a 3.5% rise in auto production helping the region outpace broader U.S. indicators. Mind you, that’s for February, before all the problems that erupted in March.

S&P futures up 7.50, DJ futures up 58. Ten-year note flat yield pushing 3.49%. Crude futures higher, Nymex crude at $108.50. Brent crude, meanwhile, is over $122, at $122.40/barrel.