Market Talk

Lot of ground to cover in today’s show: big stock rally, earnings, the falling dollar and the rising (very, very slowly) yuan. Today’s special guest is Mike Ryan, chief investment strategist at UBS Wealth Management.

Big show today, markets trying to rebound after yesterday’s sell-off, earnings from Goldman and J&J as well as a look at this afternoon’s earnings, and author, economist and sometimes actor Ben Stein comes on to talk about the U.S. debt issues, the future of the economy and the importance of diversification.

Asian markets overnight felt the reverberations of S&P’s outlook cut on US government debt, with stocks marking substantial declines.

European markets currently engaged in a moderate bounce from sharp selling yesterday, and euro’s recovering. Stage set for modest rebound for US stocks after yesterday’s sell-off

Oil continues to slide, recently at $106.43/barrel, and gold’s up a little after another fresh Comex settlement high yesterday at $1492.30.

Goldman Sachs, J&J earnings headlines hitting the tape now. Both stocks rising in premarket trading. Intel, IBM after the close. March housing starts due at 8:30 a.m. ET.

S&P futures up 1.80, DJ futures up 27. Ten-year note lower, yield at 3.39%.

Meanwhile, last night Texas Instruments reported a weak first quarter and warned the Japanese disaster would cut into its second quarter. Kevin Kingsbury adds some perspective:

Citigroup calls the impact on Texas Instruments (TXN) in the wake of Japan’s disaster largely as expected. It lowers guidance amid TXN’s cut and moves price target to $40 from $42. But the investment bank does call TXN’s underlying business “good” and “order strength is contributing to an optimistic” 2H view. Susquehanna concurs, adding, “Outside of baseband/Japan, demand commentary sounds good.” FBR says, “We remain constructive on TXN as the firm has meaningful barriers, growing scale and a low 12x P/E multiple,” which should send shares higher. “That said, many TXN comparables are also inexpensive.” Auriga keeps its sell rating, contending it is “somewhat pessimistic” about a 2H rebound. TXN down 2.3% premarket at $34.

Or, at least, Google was weighing on the market. Stocks certainly have taken off since our report at 10:30 in the a.m. Guess the markets put those disappointing earnings reports behind them, and are buying the Fed’s argument that there isn’t any inflation, at least any that’s going to last.

Good luck with that one.

Big show today. We covered Bank of America’s earnings, the SEC’s likely settlement with the banks over the issue of mortgage-backed securities, and the potential Groupon IPO.

Stocks end lower, but reclaim most of the ground lost after mid-morning word of a strong aftershock quake in Japan.

Quake headlines and tsunami warning send a chill through a market that’s grown rather blase lately toward various pockets of global upheaval (Mideast/North Africa; Japan disaster; Eurozone debt problems). Despite the bump in volatility, trading volume remains anemic.

Industrials, financials and utilities among the weakest sectors; energy stocks finish higher as Nymex crude tops $110.00/barrel, to its highest settle since Sept 2008. Gold settles at fresh Comex high of $1,458.50/oz; silver hits fresh 31-yr high.

DJIA slips 17.26 to 12409.49, and Nasdaq Comp edges 3.68 lower to 2796.14. S&P 500 falls 2.03 to 1333.51.

Latest aftershock doesn’t appear to have done too much additional damage, but rapid, sharp plummet on initial quake/tsunami warning headlines may’ve put some fear back into a market that’s had an impressive ability to shake off troubling news.

Abundant liquidity has nurtured the risk trade, building complacency amid a hazardous backdrop as everyone thinks they can get out before the stampede begins. After glimpsing that hair trigger this morning, looks as if some risk-takers may have seen enough.

There’s a certain symmetry in global markets this morning – best described as flat.

Little movement in Asian stocks overnight, European markets are just a shade lower, oil nearly unchanged, hovering near $109/barrel and US stock futures point toward a muted open.

ECB as expected hikes rates to 1.25% from 1%, though focus will be on Trichet’s comments during Q&A after 8:30 a.m. ET. Portugal bailout discussions/headlines may color the mood as well.

Weekly jobless claims due at 8:30 a.m.; Fed releases February consumer credit numbers at 3:00 p.m. Retailers report March chain-store sales throughout the morning.

S&P futures up 3.10, DJ futures up 24. Ten-year note yield up a bit at 3.57%.

US stocks rise, even after Portugal comes out and says it’ll be the third European nation to seek an international bailout.

DJIA rises 33 (0.3%) to 12427; yes, it’s another fresh multi-year high, S&P 500 gains 3 (0.2%) to 1336, Nasdaq Comp adds 9 (0.3%) to 2799.82. Volume’s a bit weak.

There wasn’t much in the way of hard news most of the day, but that serves bulls just fine. They’re buying just about everything. Gold hits a fresh record. Crude hits a fresh multi-year high. Even cotton’s rebounded.

Market shows little initial reaction to Portugal’s admission that it will follow Greece and Ireland in seeking a bailout. It can’t be a good thing that a third European nation is seeking international help because it can’t handle its problems on its own. But the even bigger issue is that everybody, and we mean ev-ree-bo-dee, is already looking past Portugal to its neighbor on the Iberian Peninsula — Spain.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Comp continues to flirt with the 2800 level. Our colleague, Tomi Kilgore, penned the following missive:

The fifth time wasn’t the charm for the Nasdaq Composite. Including today, the index has traded above 2800 intraday for the third time in four sessions, and the fifth time since Feb. 22, without closing above it. The Nasdaq ended up 8.63 at 2799.82, off an intraday high of 2815.55. Even if 2800 is cleared, bulls have to contend with nearby resistance within the gap in the charts between the Feb. 18 low and the Feb. 22 high (2808-2824), followed by the Feb. 18 high of 2840.41. Meanwhile, support starts at 2750-2765, which includes the gap between the March 29 high and March 30 low and the 50-day moving average.

Is the stock market rising on strong fundamentals, or strong liquidity? We get into that debate today, and we were lucky enough to have best-selling author John Mauldin on to help us get to the heart of it.

Based on premarket futures, US stocks on track to run higher when regular trading gets underway as investors here watch a surging euro and rising European stocks.

Rally in Europe said to be pinned on hopes for the economy as ECB is expected to hike rates tomorrow to corral inflation. Solid German manufacturing data out today, but UK manufacturing wasn’t so hot. Seems basis for rally is a bit flimsy, particularly as a teetering Portugal had to pay an average of more than 5.1% on six-month T-bills in its auction today vs 2.98% a month ago.

Here in the U.S., Chicago Fed’s Midwest manufacturing index hit the tape at 8:30 a.m., and showed some improvement. The bank’s Midwest Manufacturing Index rose 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted 83.3 in February from a revised 82.2 in January, with a 3.5% rise in auto production helping the region outpace broader U.S. indicators. Mind you, that’s for February, before all the problems that erupted in March.

S&P futures up 7.50, DJ futures up 58. Ten-year note flat yield pushing 3.49%. Crude futures higher, Nymex crude at $108.50. Brent crude, meanwhile, is over $122, at $122.40/barrel.

Another listless day of trading for stocks, as bull-bear duel produces what’s essentially a flat session. Both sides seem as if they’re waiting for something to happen, with bears maybe looking for another big shoe to drop, while bulls sift for some catalyst to reenergize the months-long uptrend.

Volume again suggests little conviction, with NYSE composite trading volume only slightly better than yesterday’s year low. Ramped-up M&A action not creating as much zing for markets overall as deal parade continues.

Materials sector performs well, while health-care and industrials decline most. DJIA slips 6.13 to 12393.90, and Nasdaq Comp edges up 2.00 to 2791.19. S&P 500 ends 0.24 lower at 1332.63. Continue reading…