Market Talk

Today we’re talking about the bull run’s two-year anniversary, and where it may go from here. We have Tomi Kilgore on again, and he’s a sharp guy. Good stuff in here for pros and neophytes alike.

I really considered having us all wear party hats. But it just didn’t seem very dignified, not when there are people being killed in Liyba as we speak. Plus, we didn’t have any party hats to wear anyhow, so it was kind of a moot point.

The latest trend on the NYSE floor is the Ostrich Rally. UBS’ Art Cashin, the dean of floor traders, laid it out in his daily commentary:

Traders have watched with growing interest a phenomenon that seems to have grown from the first days of the demonstrations in Athens.

Simply put, if there is chaos on the screen, the stock market frets and often falls.  If, a day or so later, the screen is filled with talking heads, the market rebounds (even though the talking heads happen to be talking about on-going chaos in the streets).  In essence – if I can’t see it, it can’t hurt me.

The result has been a replacement of the Goldilocks market with a current “yo-yo” market.  Down one day then up the next.  Yesterday was no exception.

With reporters access to Libya restricted, there were few images of chaos and killing in the streets.  There were reports of the same but no images.

Stocks started choppily but managed to regroup within minutes.  They re-surfaced the whacky “K. Daffy wants to negotiate” rumor resurfaced.  The boys in the oil pits seemed to take the bait for the second time.  Lower oil sent stocks higher.

A bit later, upbeat comments from Bank of America’s investor day seemed to help all the financials.

That was pretty much it.  Stocks hit their high around noon.  They then moved choppily sideways for the balance of the day.

You could see what Cashin’s talking about pretty clearly this morning: stocks futures were slightly higher, but then news broke about fresh fighting in Libya, and beyond just news, there was some video to go along with it. Once traders saw those plumes of smoke rising from the Libyan desert, bids dried up.

Newswires’ Veronica Dagher sits down with three money managers to discuss their recollections of the market’s March 9, 2009, lows and what they’ve learned since then. Sharing are the Reformed Broker’s Josh Brown, Chris Cordaro, chief investment officer at RegentAtlantic, and Jonathan Kass, managing director at Merrill Lynch.

It was two years ago today that the stock market hits its post-Lehman crash lows, and Wall Street is going to celebrate. Whether it celebrates in style is another issue. But as much as possible, the Street’s going to ignore smoke billowing up from the sands of Libya, oil prices in general, Europe’s sovereign debt problems, the states’ solvency problems, the stagnant jobs market, and even Charlie Sheen – well, maybe not Charlie, he is always a real prince at parties, after all.

No, today is a day for the Street to celebrate the triumph of the free market. To be thankful that it has a central bank willing to debase the buck, and force investors out onto the risk curve. To be thankful there’s a Congress willing to use its muscle the lean on FASB to get rid of mark-to-market accounting. To be thankful Uncle Sam will always be there to bail out the rich and connected, and transfer their debts onto the public’s back.

Happy anniversary.

Here’s the table-setter Newswires’ Kevin Kingsbury put on the wire this morning (Kevin’s a new addition to the Market Talk team, you’ll be hearing more from him.)

Equities are pointed higher premarket after Tuesday’s solid rebound, though the major US indexes remain in the consolidation range they have been in the past two weeks. Further gains today would be apropos as it is the second anniversary of stocks’ post-crisis bottom, since which the S&P 500 has nearly doubled. Futures up 1.6 points at 1322 while Nymex crude is flat, holding at $105/barrel. Euro rebounds back above $1.39 after intraday weakness, and the 10-year note is slightly higher after Tuesday’s selloff, yielding 3.53%.