Archive for August 12th, 2010

Links 8/12/2010

- Jobless claims rising 2,000 is a relatively minor change. “The bigger problem is the trend,” James Picerno says at The Capital Spectator, noting claims have jumped 13% since bottoming in mid-July. “For months, it was treading water. That was bad enough. But now it’s rising, raising fears that it could go higher still.”

- Deflation is “overblown fear” and is unlikely for three reasons, writes blogger and MIT professor Simon Johnson.

- Appears the stock market has finally awoken to poor recent economic news. And Fed saying it won’t shrink its balance sheet isn’t generating much confidence. “The Fed seems to be exhibiting a pretty bad case of ‘if all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail’ syndrome, particularly when it has (or perhaps more accurately, had) other tools at its disposal,” Yves Smith says.

- Reuters blogger Felix Salmon wonders if the “twitchy, volatile” stock market is still a worthwhile long-term investment, especially if long-term volatility continues increasing.

- Yesterday’s steep selloff and today’s drop show the “sharp risk-on/risk-off swings in markets are to be expected given the reality of today’s macro context,” PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian writes.

- Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner recently said surging imports “reflect healthy and growing American demand.” So much for that optimism, especially in the wake of yesterday’s trade deficit report. “Combined trends in exports and imports are simply not supportive of economic growth,” Tim Duy writes at Economist’s View. “And, given the current state of the global financial architecture, where the US is expected to be the repository of global savings, it is difficult to see how the external sector contributes positively to the recovery.”

- Microsoft (MSFT), which lately has been knocked for lacking a strong consumer strategy, is launching a studio to develop games for mobile phones. The idea, it appears, is to promote use of the Windows Phone operating system.

- The latest on the rumor mill regarding a Verizon Wireless iPhone comes from Daring Fireball blogger John Gruber, who says Apple (AAPL) is taking part in advanced testing of a CDMA version of iPhone, the type compatible with VZ’s wireless network. “The drumbeat of reports pointing to an impending Verzion iPhone launch is getting louder,” MediaMemo blogger Peter Kafka says. “Which doesn’t mean that it’s true. Just that there’s a lot of drumming going on.”

- With so much information online, it’s easy to read something one day and forget where you’ve seen it the next. But there may be a solution. On Thursday, TechCrunch reviewed Sentimnt, a search engine that tackles the question, “Where did I read that?”

- Jetblue (JBLU) finally ends the silent treatment regarding its flight-attendant-turned-wing-nut Steven Slater. “It wouldn’t be fair for us to point out absurdities in other corners of the industry without acknowledging when it’s about us,” JetBlue says on its blog. “While we can’t discuss the details of what is an ongoing investigation, plenty of others have already formed opinions on the matter. Like, the entire Internet.”

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Stocks Fall as The Pall Spreads

Posted by Paul Vigna on August 12, 2010
Dow Jones Industrials, Economy, Markets, S&P 500 / Comments Off

US stocks fall — again — as the stock market is really start to get the hang of this slower growth thing.

DJIA loses 59 (0.6%) to 10320, S&P 500 drops 6 (0.5%) to 1084 — below its 50-day moving average — Nasdaq Comp slides 18 (0.8%) to 2190. Weekly jobless claims climb to 484,000, another worrisome sign in what’s been a string of them lately.

Cisco’s cautious tones take a big bite of tech stocks. GM posts its second straight quarterly profit, and is readying itself for an IPO. CEO Ed Whitacre said he’ll step down (but remain chairman.)

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But, Hey, GM Looks Good!

Posted by Paul Vigna on August 12, 2010
Dow Jones Industrials, Economy, GM, Markets, S&P 500, Unemployment / Comments Off

Jobless claims once again disappoint, and Cisco disappoints, but GM is looking brighter. So, see, there is some good news out there. ‘Course, when that’s your bright spot, well…

Today incidentally was the first Markets Hub where we got to deliver some really breaking news, by the way, as the Whitacre headlines were crossing the Tape as we were getting ready to film. Just sort of interesting.

What’s also interesting is the market action; traders keep trying to pull the indexes onto higher ground, but they can’t punch through the resistance. Be interesting to see if their strength on that front flags at some point.

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Here Comes the Rain Again

Posted by Paul Vigna on August 12, 2010
Dow Jones Industrials, Economy, Markets, Recession, S&P 500, Unemployment / 1 Comment

I don't think we should go out today, Mama.

Get ready for another rain. The markets are in sell-off mode again, stocks are under pressure, crude futures are under pressure, the euro is under pressure, Treasurys continue to rally. This morning’s weekly jobless claims report was another slap in the economy’s face. Claims rose to 484,000, a six-month high, just confirming what most people suspect: the jobs market is going nowhere.

This is just a level the market didn’t expect to revisit. It’s not inconceivable that jobless claims could hit 500,000 at this point. The emergency claims rose by 1.1 million to 4.5 million, which I’d imagine is still the effect of people coming back onto the rolls after getting tossed off during that Congressional row over extending the benefits.

Now, the S&P 500 fell through some key support at the open around 1083, roughly the 50-day moving average. Keep an eye on that, because that’s where all the firepower’s going to be concentrated.

It’s already nosedived under the 200- and 100-day averages. It’s still a ways off from the year low at 1022, but heading back in that direction.

We said the stock market was ugly yesterday, and we meant it. It was ugly. Of course, the ugly has been everywhere else since this whole recession started, it’s just that the market got a reprieve from March 2009 to April, and forgot what was going on elsewhere. It’s getting a reminder now.

Continue reading…

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Following Rout, a Bit More Weakness

Posted by John Shipman on August 12, 2010
Dow Jones Industrials, Markets, S&P 500 / Comments Off

The recent cascade of 2Q US corporate earnings reports has turned into more of a gurgling stream, which allows investors’ attention to wander and fixate on other matters, like a drooping economic recovery, or on the few big names that are reporting these days, like Cisco.

Cisco’s quarterly revenue was less than expected and outlook seems more cautious, shares down 7.5% premarket.

Stocks fell in Asia overnight, looking more stable now in Europe. Euro still under pressure, oil remains in retreat and gold moving higher. July import prices and weekly jobless claims due at 8:30 a.m.

S&P futures down 4.40, DJ futures down 35. Ten-year note sheds some gains, yield at 2.73%.

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