Archive for July 30th, 2010

Links 7/30/2010

Posted by Steven Russolillo on July 30, 2010
Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, Internet, IPO, Markets, Media, Recession, S&P 500, Technology, Washington / Comments Off

- Microsoft (MSFT) insists one of its top priorities is to bring a Windows-based tablet to market sooner than later. Sounds straightforward. The problem is, [Microsoft] doesn’t always manage to do things really right,” Digital Daily blogger John Paczkowski says. “Certainly, it didn’t manage it with Windows Vista. Or Windows Mobile. Or Zune. Or, more recently, Kin. Who’s to say this time will be any different?”

- Tough to get true read on what’s happening in the stock market these days. “The cross-currents lately are absolutely cartoonish — back-to-back-to-back triple digit rallies while each morning we are treated to fresh evidence of ‘Slouching Housing, Hidden Consumer,’” Joshua Brown writes at The Reformed Broker.

- Hank Paulson says government policies promoting homeownership should be blamed as a major cause of the financial crisis, but FusionIQ CEO Barry Ritholtz disagrees, saying the former Treasury secretary ignores facts and is rewriting history. “His commentary is thinly veiled attempt to rewrite what actually occurred, and to shift his own sad role from conductor of the theft, to hapless victim of long standing government policy. If this exercise wasn’t such a transparent attempt at self-exoneration, it would be amusing.”

- Facebook isn’t planning to go public until 2012, Bloomberg reports. “That certainly sounds plausible,” MediaMemo blogger Peter Kafka says, especially considering Facebook likely doesn’t need to raise cash for operations. And if Facebook doesn’t IPO anytime soon, expect social games giant Zynga to face less pressure to go public too.

- “There is good news and bad news,” Ryan Avent writes at Economist’s Free Exchange blog, regarding 2Q GDP report. “Underlying growth looks quite weak, and in quarters to come the contribution from both government and inventory shifts will fall, or turn negative. All indicators suggest that second half growth will be no faster than first half growth.”

- GDP growth rate of only 2.4% isn’t nearly enough for the economy to properly recovery. “This shows clearly that Congress and the Fed should have taken a more aggressive posture already, not doing so was a mistake, and it’s a clear signal that the economy still needs more help,” Mark Thoma writes at MoneyWatch.

- But NYT’s Floyd Norris still thinks the recovery will pick up steam in near future. He notes this was third-straight quarter in which private sector investment rose at an annual rate of more than 25%. “The last time that figure rose as rapidly was in 1984, in the midst of a very strong recovery,” Norris says. “To be sure, private investment is coming off a very depressed level. But it is worth recalling that 1984′s recovery was also widely doubted.”

- As the Fed grapples with methods to support flagging economic growth, Monument Securities economist Stephen Lewis says (via Alphaville) that central bankers “seem close to recognizing” that their actions don’t determine the economy’s performance. “They can no longer demonstrate, or credibly claim, the omnipotence attributed to them by credulous markets in the era of the Greenspan cult.”

- Slate Group, the Washington Post’s (WPO) online unit, is shutting The Big Money, a business site it launched in September 2008, Kafka reports. “The problem, in a nutshell, is that the site is not pointed toward profitability on a fast enough timetable,” Slate said.

- “The global corporate-bond boom is gathering steam as companies rush to take advantage of some of the lowest borrowing costs in history,” WSJ says.

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DJIA Registers Best Monthly Gain in a Year

Posted by Steven Russolillo on July 30, 2010
Dow Jones Industrials, Economy, Markets, S&P 500 / Comments Off

US stocks essentially finish flat, with the DJIA erasing an early 120-point loss, as bulls were able to overcome a weak 2Q GDP reading.

DJIA closes down 1 to 10466, but finishes July up 7.1%, its first positive month since April and best monthly gain since last July. S&P 500 ticks up 0.07 to 1102, rises 6.9% for the month. Nasdaq Comp gains 2 to 2255, also ends July up 6.9%.

Better-than-expected manufacturing and consumer sentiment data provide bulls with enough fuel to overcome session’s early losses.

But one caveat comes with July’s performance: The monthly gains come amid thin volume as only two trading days in July exceeded the daily average on NYSE. Just something to keep in mind as the dog days of summer keep rolling on.

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Spinning Wheels Digging Deeper

Posted by Paul Vigna on July 30, 2010
Economic Indicators, Economy, Markets / Comments Off

The band wagon's looking pretty empty.

We’ve been banging the drum on the fact that so much of the “recovery” was driven by temporary factors such as federal stimulus and inventory restocking, and that eventually their contributions would fade. Well, looks like we finally got there with the inventory part, at least.

Listen, this is a nation of 300 million plus people. Money is going to be spent. Apple can attest to that. But overall, in the aggregate as the economics boys like to say, not enough money is being spent to drive the economy to the point where companies fell compelled to start hiring, compelled to offer better wages.

Until that happens, the economy’s like a giant tow-truck that got stuck in the mud trying to pull out a smaller tow truck, which got stuck there trying to pull out an SUV, which got stuck there when its driver went on a drunken off-road joyride.

To expect the consumer to pick up their traditional role of growth donkey, just because it’s like their turn or something, just isn’t realistic. That’s the real problem. Companies aren’t spending money, the government, apparently going down the austerity path, isn’t going to be spending money, and consumers aren’t spending money. Somebody’s got to kick-start this thing, but nobody is right now.

Continue reading…

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Earnings Breakdown

Posted by Paul Vigna on July 30, 2010
Dow Jones Industrials, Earnings, Economy, Markets, S&P 500 / Comments Off

Second-quarter earnings have been, once again, good. Heck, we’ll even say great, after all, a 42% growth rate doesn’t come around every day (or quarter, as the case may be.) But the story behind that growth rate, as it has been the past two quarters, is more about easy comparisons to last year’s dreadful results and margins, the difference between a company’s costs and sales. Companies have been making the very most of their sales by keeping their costs down (i.e., your salary, Mack. Or your job.)

Somehow I think companies can play this game longer than people suspect. They may even be able to play it until sales actually do pick up. But don’t be fooled into thinking that because earnings “look” so good, that they’re telling you something about the economy.

(That “breakdown” reference in the headline makes me think of something like this.)

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Tone’s a Bit Negative Ahead of GDP

Posted by Paul Vigna on July 30, 2010
Dow Jones Industrials, Markets, S&P 500 / Comments Off

No mystery about the focus this morning as everyone awaits first look at 2Q GDP, due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Emphasis on “first look,” folks, because good, bad or indifferent, the numbers will be redone two more times by the end of September. Considering the direction that much of the June data have pointed, seems unlikely to be revised higher. So today’s result may be as good as it gets, for a while.

Also due, regional ISM reports from NY and Chicago, and Reuters/Univ of Michigan final gauge on July consumer sentiment. Stocks mostly lower in Asia overnight and currently down in Europe. Euro sits near $1.30 flat after climbing above $1.31 yesterday.

S&P futures down 4.40, DJ futures down 33. Ten-year higher, yield at 2.95%.

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