Market Talk

All right, here it is, the final tally on the stock market in 2009. Whether it really is the start of a new bull market, or the work of the Plunge Protection Team, stocks rallied in spectacular fashion after hitting bottom in March. And yet, as John pointed out the other day, it’s a rally that has been lightly attended.

While you ponder that and other mysteries — like how do Ryan Seacrest and Carson Daly both get New Year’s Eve shows — here are the numbers to chew on, courtesy of Dow Jones’ stats group.

For 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial average rose 1651.66 points, or 18.8%. That’s the fourth biggest yearly point gain in its history, and the biggest since 2003, although it’s only the 33rd best year ranked by percent. It’s up 59.3% from the closing low of 6547.05 on March 9, but still down 26.4% from its all-time closing high of 14164.53 on Oct. 9, 2007. The index has gained ground in five of the past seven years.

The S&P 500 rose 211.85 points in 2009, or 23.5%. It’s the fifth largest year on points, but only the 18th largest by percentage. The S&P is up 64.8% from its 2009 closing low of 676.53, hit March 9. It’s still down 28.8% from its all-time closing high of 1565.15, hit Oct. 9, 2007. The S&P is up six of the past seven years.

But for the decade, according to S&P itself, the S&P 500 is down 24%; it closed at 1115.10 today, and at 1469.25 on Dec. 31, 1999. After accounting for dividends, the total return for the decade was negative 9.1%. Energy rose 102% in the decade; tech fell 54%. Financials lost 39.8%.

But the numbers tell only part of the story. The decade produced two bull markets, two bear markets and two burst bubbles, in tech and housing. ”It also saw,” S&P’s senior index analyst Howard Silverblatt writes, “many high level frauds, mismanagements, self-serving individuals (in both the public and private sector,) which has resulted (in) at least in a deep concern and (at) the most a full mistrust by investors of institutions.

“For markets to function, this confidence will need to return, and it can only be returned through deeds and actions.”

Here’s to hoping 2010 is better than 2009. Happy new year, folks.

These guys know how to party.

Stocks skid into 2009′s closing bell in a low-volume sell-off. Did bulls simply depart early to celebrate wresting the year’s stock-market victory from the jaws of defeat back in March?

That’s how it looked as the weaker tone throughout the session turned into a flat-out rout in the final half-hour.

Utilities, materials, industrials and health care among the worst-performing sectors. JPMorgan Chase the only Dow Industrial to finish the session in positive terrain; IBM, H-P and 3M lead the Dow’s dollar decliners.

DJIA falls 120.46 to 10428.05, and Nasdaq Comp sheds 22.13 to 2269.15. S&P 500 ends 11.32 lower at 1115.10.

Next week should be a lot more active, with higher profile data including December ISM, auto sales, chain-store sales, factory orders, pending home sales, FOMC minutes Nov consumer credit and Dec non-farm payrolls.

Rest up, and have a happy, safe New Year, citizens.

Looks antique to me, Mary. Call Chesapeake.

It’s been a year of outrageousness, in so many ways. Here’s one that maybe you missed.

Footnoted.org’s Michelle Leder announces the worst footnote in the reams of this year’s SEC filings, as selected in a reader vote.

It’s the disclosure by Chesapeake Energy (CHK) “that it had spent $12.1 million to purchase Chairman and CEO Aubrey McClendon’s antique map collection,” she says.

“This particular disclosure got a lot of exposure this year after we wrote about it and even prompted Chesapeake to issue a amended proxy a few days later to provide additional details on the maps andother goodies McClendon received,” Leder adds.

The original disclosure is certainly written with some inspiration, noting the maps  ”have been displayed throughout the Company’s headquarters for a number of years, complementing the interior design features of our campus buildings and contributing to our workplace culture.”

Congrats on the recognition, CHK.

Just my luck, the "Help Wanted" section's now only one column.

Pundits continue to glom onto the declines in weekly initial and continuing jobless claims as proof positive of “improvement” in the labor market, and we continue to be unconvinced that the job market is better simply because there’s less firing.

Dwindling jobless claims will, of course, eventually reflect a better job market — when hiring actually does pick up, but the number of unemployed who are filing for emergency benefits continues to mount, indicating that the level of hiring remains paltry.

Labor Dept said today EUC claims rose 191,669 in week ended Dec 12 vs prior week. States reported 4,448,914 persons claiming EUC — there were 1,567,930 claimants in the comparable week in 2008. And the number of those claiming EUC is up more than 589,000 in the past month. 

Miller Tabak strategist Dan Greenhaus notes total continuing claims remain elevated — “over 9.8 million since mid September – suggesting the pace of hiring is lagging.”

Meanwhile, ahead of today’s weekly jobless claims report, Barclays Capital said it expects nonfarm payrolls for December to post their first gain in two years, an increase of 25,000. The firm also sees the jobless rate holding steady at 10% and work week increasing to 33.3 from 33.2.

On this final day of 2009, not going to get too retrospective except to say that it’s not a year we’ll remember with much fondness. Great year for stocks, not so hot for the financial well-being of the US, its localities and citizens.

Weekly jobless claims due at 8:30am. Bond market closes early, full session for equities. Rest up this weekend, busy for economic data next week, with highlights including December jobs report, ISM, pending home sales, Dec chain-store sales and Nov factory orders.

US dollar index down 0.5% at 77.56. S&P futures up 2.90; 10-yr lower, yield at 3.80%.

Watching the tape today could be the perfect cure for insomnia, or the best trick a hypnotist could want. US stocks end another quiet session essentially flat in another tight trading range. DJIA adds 3 to 10549, S&P 500 adds less than 1 to 1126, Nasdaq Comp gains 3 to 2291. NYSE volume’s low again. Dow’s trading range is a scant 45 points, about what it’s been the past few sessions.

Chicago PMI comes in strong (although those comments from the survey participants will temper your enthusiasm,) while Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index slides from a month ago.

ITC rules in favor of US steelmakers’ claims China dumped steel on US market, adding some trade friction between the countries.

Treasury’s gift to Fannie and Freddie, lifting the caps on financial aid, has drawn the attention of Congress, which is making some noise about it. This has the sound of populist grandstanding, but the more attention brought to light on this subject the better, really.

Nope, still not buying it.

The rally in US stocks since March has been remarkable in a variety of ways, and one of the more interesting aspects is an ongoing lack of engagement with the average mutual-fund investor.

We noted back in October that the retail stock-fund investor was MIA, and they still remain generally indifferent to the market’s advance.

In the past, dramatic stock-market gains have sparked a flood of new cash from retail fund investors, who are notorious for chasing after gains, piling the most money into stock funds when they’re performance is peaking, and yanking the most cash out at market bottoms.

But despite the S&P 500 rising nearly 25% this year, and close to 69% from its March low, it hasn’t been enough to seduce the typical retail investor.

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Acting!

For the first time in what feels like forever, the market has a sleepy feeling to it. Trading volumes are low, nobody’s staring into the abyss, GM isn’t on the verge of bankruptcy. A financial reporter for once can actually feel like just another working-class stiff, instead of embedded with the troops in the desert somewhere.

So given that we’ve got a little extra time on our hands, we’re going to “break character” a bit here and pose a question, just because we’re interested: what do you think are the great all-time performances in a movie?

It could be a leading role, it could be an Oscar-winning role, it could be a small part where the actor just nails it, it could be an overlooked movie. Anything, really, but it has to be one where you were just floored by it. We’re talking about Meryl Streep in “Kramer vs. Kramer.” Al Pacino in “Dog Day Afternoon.” Al Pacino in “Gigli.” Okay, not Al Pacino in “Gigli,” but you get the point.

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While today’s Chicago PMI report showed some signs of life, what’s truly revealing are the comments from some of the survey participants, like this one: ““Supplier inventories seem to be inadequate and lead-times are increasing. Hesitance to build resources to accommodate increase demands seems to be stifling potential growth. Excessive demands on surviving employees is wearing thin but, fear and desperation will always prevail.”

And, there are signs of trade friction between the US and China. Yesterday, we highlighted one story to keep an eye on, which is how the government’s going to fund itself. This is another one to keep an eye on.

Lastly, Japan Airlines looks like it could become the GM of Japan.

Ready to start loading yet?

We’ve been keeping an eye on volume reports from railroads and truckers to get some gauge on the potency of the recovery, and it seems some of the readings have marginally improved.

The American Association of Railroads said last week that total freight volume was up fractionally in the week ended December 19 vs the comparable week in 2008. Total volume for the year, though, was still down 15.5%.  

The American Trucking Association said late yesterday its seasonally adjusted truck tonnage index rose 2.7% in November vs October, lifting the index to its highest level in a year. Compared with a year earlier, tonnage was down 3.5%, the best year-year level in 12 months, ATA said.

Not seasonally adjusted (which ATA says represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets), the index was down 8% vs October.

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